********Variance Rant plus GTO examples coming up. missed the Cardschat freeoll typing this lol 3 hours sorry couldnt help myself but I already typed it all and its quite informative and has personal insights into the game that I believe will help someone become a better player....or worse its not for people learning poker but much further and has discipline and deep understanding of all concepts of poker and every strategy currently being used and not limited to pyshology concepts and how opponents play/reaction and to manipulate the play/react value .we use our image to steal and bluff .once understood their play/reaction values will have altered due to your aggression using tight image not being worth a heap of dung etc etc and them loosening up to your new image. Constant viewing yourself to understand the values and change in them varying your counterplay accordingly.
GTO is player manipulation/understanding/psychology/math/ I dont call it bluffing its opponents fold range/foldequity/play/reaction values.
Using this you will go deeper tourney to tourney average.
1# not waiting for cards hoping to get all in on a flip # verybadideas
2# creating situations where you can gain value from your great hands
3# constant aggression gives us donkey Hud stats we get paid!!
4# constant aggro with any 2 allows for a complete range of 27-AA, so when i raise and he calls he has no idea where the flop has brought me
5# GTO naturally has you in position 90% the time. Also having a very high cbet rate hud stat of 100% giving absolutley no information away with any 2 on any board. leaves your opponents hurting bad having to either call/slowplay or just flat out shove on the board with just about anything, for they know, you have the nuts or air and you're gonna raise him on the flop with 2-7 or AA. While in position if I get called with my cbet from a slowplayer then I know hes gonna check to me again and I can
a. evaluate the turn card , what did it do how does it affect
b. get a free card to hit potential straights etc
c.check to slowplay ..if you already hit , you must have variance Opponent might try to steal with less than good if you normally shutdown on the turn with that check
d.whats his range and play/reaction towards you
E. theres no manual you have 10 seconds to decide what to do and none of the options helped only helped in forming the scenario
F. he bet out into you on the turn thinking you are cbetting and he floated he is now worried about the turn card giving more outs and decides he doesnt want to see the river or he is rebluffing you and has a semi draw. him bluffing you is Very rare only if react/play value of opponent is manipulated and he believes very little you say anymore. usually ace high or a middle pair and open ended or flush draws will be willing to put you to the test. his shove should make a player fold but we understand his play/react not just how big is the blinds and the pot. His shove is going to be faaar looser than anyone else he would play with at the table becuase gto starts as the loosest player that outplays people on the table. Which is why when you start gto in a fresh tourney or new table you have a tight image and can bluff well. While your Heros* at the table figure it out and adjust ,you just set them up for failure. the react/play value just made a9 kj and other mediocre hands feel like they are good against you, which they would usually just get out the way. theyr'e trying to play the players also and want any edge they think they have.
So manipulate yourself to manipulate your opponents view of oneself to make your chipstack grow early in MTT or at the start of a cash game to accumulate free chips and later when marked as a aggro/retard to give value to premium hands. GTO is very hard to learn and requires lots of discipline and constant table observation/analysis in every hand
like never put up 10% of your roll.... for your ak suited getting called vs 78 suited preflop.thats a 60/40 shoving all in preflop with 78 to steal blinds equal to 10-20%+ of your chip stack is not a bad play and the ak is what we consider a great call, but I believe the 78 to be better EV in this position. opponent folds 90% of the time to increase the 78s chipstack by 10-20% with no flip. So technically the way 78 was played has a better EV+ =+20%stack no risk no showdown , he calls +100-110% stack running a 60/40 flip, that is alot of variance for the AK and great overall equity for the 78.
Due to the opponents
fold equity+/opponents folding range,and certain hero fold ranges can be as high as 95%
In a GTO aspect it allows our range to be absolutley disguised, later I can do this same play with AK and get aq aj a10 a9 all in preflop against a real favorite 71.72/23.69% 4.59%tie and they gonna want to put it in with those cards due to the fact you took the opportunity to make a +EV move with 78 or any 2. Makes your opponents mad they got bluffed/coolered if he did call. The raise increases my pfr and aggression stats for those using huds. the higher your PFR the looser your hud using friend will have to be. when the flop comes 36Q and he has nothing because he now called loosely and he cbets, usually shutting down an aggro tard with air. I use the gto math to say its a reraise and that his range doesnt dictate him to raise the flop LET ALONE calling a reraise. he folds 83% of the time and now our flop reraise has some variance, reraising any opponent after this hand that was watching now adds huge value to your overpairs 2 pairs sets or anything you actually do hit and he will want to slowplay you with his cards reducing his ability to find out where you are in the hand 975 flop you 3x bet with jj you cbet 100% 1/2-pot and you'll find he shoves all in with just about anything in this spot 109 98 a7 a5 , I'v seen it all because they believe your making a play. So they decide make a play but with the worst of it and hope you'l fold or believe theyre ahead at the immediate moment, due to your prior aggro/tard. and you know what sometimes I have nothing and have to make that fold but thats what disclipline is for.Tournament winners dont wait for cards and get small pots.Ive read the 3 pages of phill hellmuths secret to winning tournaments. Another reason he doesnt show up early to games. the donkeys are there and and too much play in chip amounts, He is a chip thief. The people believe he is super tight and screams at people when making loose calls , which in turn improves the range they fold with against him and we're good at it so we dont get caught using 85 because we dont shove all in pre with 85 and get called. we shove and get away with it and you never see it. Good fold pat on the back to the folder gonna make the bubble money friend.
Do you truly believe he played the cards well and was dealt great cards through these huge wsop fields and played the standard top ten hands and flipped 100 times to get there?? BS the ones that win tourneys ESPECIALLY BACKED TO BACK are people like Dan Coleman Holz Jamie Gold(while under Johnny Chans eye being railed) Johnny Chan Gus Hansen (Go read the aussie millions book he wrote its slap full of what I would call GTO math you wont see being applied in standard pro strategy guides and his understanding of exponential need for chips and agrressive thought process is written very well, he was lucky in a few hands but he took 1st. and whats lucky? being the 40% and winning isnt exactly lucky imo Its that he knows how to get chips and without the 40% flips and the need for cards.
Tournaments don't allow for you to wait for AA without losing 30-100% of your stack to blindes and then choosing ak to flip 60/40 against gus's 78 after he stole all your blinds for 4 hours just to double up and be back to the original starting stack and have absolutley no variance and no one wants to play with a nit
Raise 3x pre any two
Mp raise 10x
I fold
I raise 3x pre any two
Mp raises me again 10x outplaying me
I raise 3x he believes he gonna do it again and bets 10x
I shove 40x
session was -3bb,-3bb,=+10-13bb if +2 if 1 limp, plus antes,
4-9bbs+ antes profit losing 2/3 preflop raises
Different example
I raise 3 he raises 10x
I fold -3bb
I raise 3x he raises 10x
I fold -3bb
I raise 3x and I win the blinds
-6bb +3bb at a 1/3. 33.33%win rate profit -3bb+ 8/10 of a tables worth antes
example 50% win ratio stealing preflop
i raise 3x win 3bb
i raise 3x win 3 bb
I raise 3x he raises 10x i fold - 3bb
I raise 3x he raises 10x I fold -3 bb
6 -6= 0 + 16 antes .
So even at a 50% the profit is 16 antes at a 10 handed table. even when your opponents play back at you for your range and agrro/tardness with disciplined folds we can keep our retard image and still make a profit, post flop gto is for another time hmu if you'd like to learn how to play GTO or any questions