How much is one hand actually worth?
One thing I always try to do is stop and ask myself, is this one hand worth my entire stack? Here's how it would play out.
NOTE: Assume this is my very first hand sitting at the table with these players to eliminate all of the complications and considerations that go into reading players.
I start with 100BBs and put in 3BB preflop with A9o and 3 callers.
Flop comes A96 rainbow.
Now, I've got a decent hand. So I bet, say 10BB into a 9BB pot. Get 2 callers and one fold so the pot is now around 40BB (to keep the math easy).
On the turn I've got 87BB left and we've got A962 with 2 hearts. I check and someone else goes all-in for 90BB and the other guy calls, so to call I would be all-in, but the greedy part of me looks at the size of the pot and says it would be a triple up and I would be calling 87BB to win 300BBs. Personally, I hate math, but I would look at this situation and say, I have everything except trips beat, they may be on a flush draw, and I have 6 outs for a full house. I'm in a very strong position here and want to call.
But then I ask myself, is Top Two Pair worth my entire stack? Regardless of what I have right now, even if I have them beat right now, is it worth it to put everything on the line over a hope that I win the hand at showdown? Now, the math may or may not be saying I should make the call, but like I said I hate math (which is why I'm a fish). So, here's how I would look at this in relation to each type of game.
Cash game:
Now, I know when using proper BRM you would look at this and probably say it's worth the entire stack because you've still got 20-40 buy-ins. But even in that situation you have to ask yourself how long it took for you to earn those 87BBs. Let's say it took 3 sessions at 2 hours each to earn those 100BBs (some sessions are up, some are down, so we'll call it 3 because you're good). What I would be asking myself in this case is, is this top two pair worth 6 hours of my poker time? What if I can only play 2 hours per day. Is this worth 3 days of my poker life?
MTT:
Again, proper BRM says you can afford to lose the tourney if this is a good call because you can afford to lose the buyin. But, again, what are you truly losing? You're truly losing 1st place money. You're sacrificing, say $1000 on this hand. Is it really worth that much money to you? Is it really worth the risk to simply be in a better position and not guaranteed a money spot let alone 1st? So in this case I would be comparing the 3 possible stacks I would have (87BB, 300BB, 0BB) and ask myself is this one hand truly worth losing $1000 if I'm wrong?
Single Table SnG:
Now, in a Single Table SnG, there is something other than time, buy-in and 1st place money to consider. Since there are so few players at a Single table Sit-n-Go and since there is a very limited number of total chips (say 3,000 to 5,000BBs on the table), the chance of winning such a high % of the total chips as well as the chance of earning a large chunk of the total chips. then I would almost always call this situation.
As for Cash and MTTs? I would look at those situations and know I should fold.
But then again . . . I did say how it "would" play out . . . :deal:
