A
aliceabusmus
Rising Star
Bronze Level
You sit at a full table playing $5/$10 NLHE.
The dealer takes $5 from the pot for the rake (drop). Folds to Lojack who raises to $30. Folds to YOU on the Big Blind. You have to call $20 into a pot of $40 or 2-1 immediate pot odds. You call and the pot is $60.
Flop - you check, the PFR bets pot ($60). Once again, you have 2-1 pot odds. You call and the pot is $180.
Turn - you check, the PFR bets pot ($180), you have 2-1 pot odds and you call. You call and the pot is $540.
River - you check, the PFR bets pot ($540), you have 2-1 pot odds and you call. You call and the pot is $1620.
So, in each of four betting rounds, you had 2-1 odds to call and needed only to be best more than 1/3 of the time for these calls to be profitable.
BUT, the total pot is now $1620. If you win, your profit since sitting down is $810. If you lose, you lose $810. If you're best only 1/3 of the time, you do NOT break even, you lose on average $270! You have to win 50% of the time just to break even.
What am I getting wrong? How can I make four consecutive calls that are profitable in a vacuum that add up to a grossly unprofitable result?
The dealer takes $5 from the pot for the rake (drop). Folds to Lojack who raises to $30. Folds to YOU on the Big Blind. You have to call $20 into a pot of $40 or 2-1 immediate pot odds. You call and the pot is $60.
Flop - you check, the PFR bets pot ($60). Once again, you have 2-1 pot odds. You call and the pot is $180.
Turn - you check, the PFR bets pot ($180), you have 2-1 pot odds and you call. You call and the pot is $540.
River - you check, the PFR bets pot ($540), you have 2-1 pot odds and you call. You call and the pot is $1620.
So, in each of four betting rounds, you had 2-1 odds to call and needed only to be best more than 1/3 of the time for these calls to be profitable.
BUT, the total pot is now $1620. If you win, your profit since sitting down is $810. If you lose, you lose $810. If you're best only 1/3 of the time, you do NOT break even, you lose on average $270! You have to win 50% of the time just to break even.
What am I getting wrong? How can I make four consecutive calls that are profitable in a vacuum that add up to a grossly unprofitable result?
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