poker math..

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tcummo

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Could somebody give examples of when it's profitable to shove any two cards...is there a situation where calling with 7 2 offsuit v aces would be a profitable play?...trying to wrap my head around 'equity'...hope it makes sense..thanks all,,
 
vinnie

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Sklansky-Chubukov did the work to make a chart of these. The idea behind the chart was that you could profitably shove your stack from the small-blind into the big-blind, even if you shoved and then immediately turned your hand over. That means your opponent would call if it was profitable for them, and fold when it wasn't.

Also, the worst hand 32o has 32.3% equity against a 100% range. It's 28.38% against the top 20% of hands. Even against AA it is 12.79%. That means if you are being offered 6.8-1, you can't really fold even if you hold 32o. But, since people shove wider than that, when short, you really can't fold it for 2.5-1.

As an example, let's get ridiculous:

$0.50/$1 game 10-handed. You have $2. The whole table calls $1, and the SB shoves for $10,000. Everyone else mucks out of turn. So, it will be heads up with you against the SB. There is $11 out there, and you have to call $1 to be all-in. Can you find a hand that it wouldn't be profitable to call with? You only need 8.33% to break even here. The only example I can think of is something like K3o after the SB shows you KK. Although, if he could have AA or KK, you call with K3o.

Edit: AA vs 7-2o is 88.2:11.8, so if you have 7.5-1 direct odds, it's a call. These spots don't normally come up, except in weird tournament spots. Sometimes a person is very crippled and they raise all-in into your big blind for much less than even a min-bet. That's just an autocall spot, even if you don't look at your cards.
 
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tcummo

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Thanks for that m8...great reply...food for thought ...you mean $10 not $10,000 ..right?
 
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tcummo

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I understand now how any two cards can make a profit..just gota digest it ...brush up on the math ,. :) ..
 
vinnie

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Yeah, but I'm not suggesting you play any two cards. LOL, don't take it as that. It is all about your risk and reward. If I am being offered 50-1, I will take the underset on the turn against a higher set. If I am being offered 40-1, I wouldn't.

Don't play junk. There's really rarely a reason. And, consider how contrived that example was to get 11-1 odds. There are times when you are going to shove pretty much any hand, but that's mainly with really short stacks and you are relying on fold-equity more than anything else.
 
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tcummo

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I understand Vinnie...it's the math..i'm trying to get a handle on equity..when it is right to call...the math explains it ..cheers..
 
Lemberg

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Someone using some programs while playing poker?
 
blanktheman

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only cards you should shove with are AA or KK. Sometimes QQ but also depends on table position and how aggressive your opponents are.
 
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Running Nose II

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It is a useful exercise in maths, unfortunately the situation seldom comes up, but useful to keep in mind.
 
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rushdaman

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if you are not talking about a pre-flop call then their definitely is a time mathematically too shove all in. eg if your chip count is at 500 yet the pot is at 3,500 i think your "POT COMMITED" and have to shove esp if at a later stage of a tournament with high antes and blinds. Pot commitment.
 
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