Poker After Dark Example: to Call or not to Call

[zucker]

Hi there,

I am recently engaging a lot with the concepts of pot odds/equity/drawing probability.

The other day I was watching this Poker After Dark episode (by the way I really appreciate suggestions for other full-length uncut poker tournament/sit and go content):

The hand I am referring to starts at 36.00.

My friend used an EV calculation and told me Moneymaker shouldn't call Chan's all-in. I am not familiar with these calculations. I am not so sure, if he should call or not.

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Context

1k/2k blinds

It's Headsup.

Stacks: C. Moneymaker roughly holds 53k, J. Chan 67k.

Position/hands: Chan on the button with 86s (hearts). Moneymaker as BB holds 87s (spades).

Chan raises 5k pre-flop. Moneymaker calls.

Flop: 5h 6s Qd

Pots at 10k.

Moneymaker checks with his open-ended straight/backdoor flush draw.

Chan bets 7k with his 6 pair.

Moneymaker re-raises to 15k.

Chan goes all-in with 47,250.

Pot's at 72,250.

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Question:

Should Moneymaker call or not?

OK, so Moneymaker has 11 outs. That are 44% with the 2/4 rule (it's an all-in so times 4). According to this table (https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs), that's between 1.3 (hoRatio calculator) and 1.4-1.

Let's look at the pot odds. The pot is 72,250. The costs for the call are: 47,250-15,000=32,250.

Now, there are two ways to calculate the pot odds. The first way is Negreanu's (https://www.masterclass.com/articles/learn-poker-what-are-pot-odds#pot-odds-and-expected-value). The second one is this (https://upswingpoker.com/pot-odds-step-by-step/). They differ in their calculation of the pot. Negreanu uses the tot pot (including your pot). Upswing poker only divides the pot (pot+opponent's bet) times your call.

Negreanu calculation: Total Pot/Call=(72,250+32,250)/32,250=104500/32250=3.24:1 pot odds. We should call since 3.24>1.4.

Upswingpoker calculation: Pot/Call=72,250/32,250=2.24=2.24:1 pot odds. We should still call.

Let's do it in percentage. Moneymaker has 44%. Does that suffice? 32,250/104,500=30%. He should at least have 30% drawing probability/equity. He does. He should call.

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Two questions for you folks:

1. Should I include the call in the pot odds calculations (strange enough all the sources use the total pot for the percentage calculations, whilst for the ratio calculations only some do)?

2. Should Moneymaker call?

3. Where did I mess up the calculations?

Thanks so much,

Z

 

[fundiver199]

"Pot odds" are just an indirect way of decribing, how much equity you need to make a call. So you could use both methods, but the way to transform pot odds into equity would be different. As you say, Moneymaker needed 30% equity to make a break even call here. In reality probably even a bit less, if Chan had him covered.

And yes this is a call. Of course Moneymaker dont know Chans hand, so he dont know, he has more than 40% equity. But against top pair he has around 36%, and even against a set he still has 27,5%. So this is not a great spot, but Moneymaker painted himself into a corner by raising, and now his least bad option is to call and hope to improve.

 

[zucker]

Fundiver, thanks so much. How would you calculate the min. eq (from the pot odds) needed for Moneymaker to break even? Have a nice weekend, Z!

 

[fundiver199]

Fundiver, thanks so much. How would you calculate the min. eq (from the pot odds) needed for Moneymaker to break even? Have a nice weekend, Z!

Assuming that the shortest or effective stack was 53k, the calculation is the one, you did already, and he needed 30% equity.

 

[Jay R]

You have to realize poker pros always think there going to win. They bluff over bet, ignore reality. Daniel Negreanu is an example how to lose $1M. If Monemaker was smart he’d fold. Wait for the nuts.. blinds are low.

 

[Kenzie 96]

You have to realize poker pros always think there going to win. They bluff over bet, ignore reality. Daniel Negreanu is an example how to lose $1M. If Monemaker was smart he’d fold. Wait for the nuts.. blinds are low.