You have to assume that all players are capable of a bluff. They are also capable of playing any two cards and hitting anything randomly.
So your job is to figure out if the story makes sense.
Is the action, pre- and post-flop consistent with your opponents range? Does the bet sizing make sense?
Do you have any stats on C-Betting, Bluffs or steals on this villain?
For example, if a player has a 3bet stat of zero and they three bet me, I'm inclined to believe it. But if their 3bet rate if 90%, Might be more inclined to just see it as nonsense.
I'm in a situation now where my home game crew think I'm such a bluffer that I can no longer get a bluff through....(so I rarely even try with them...just enough, early on, to get them assuming I'm lying....then I get those extra chips, or an extra street or two from them.
My CC games are different as you gotta play conservatively in CC Team League, for example, if you want to make it to FT.