Paying off the Set

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bigrog70

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I love flopping the set (pocket pair w/ a matching card on the flop) ... because it's hidden and all. But I find it so rarely gets paid off. Seems like (and I know that's just personal perception w/ biases and all) if I flop the set and bet to take away drawing odds (say half pot), everyone folds ... or I get outdrawn anyway.

But here's my question. Odds of flopping the set are approx. 1-in-8. When calculating implied odds, do I only calculate based on the money that OTHER people bet post-flop. For example, let's say I limp vs. 2 others pre-flop for a pot of 3BB. Does that mean that the pot needs to grow to 8BB after subtracting my post-flop bets, to pay off my pre-flop limp?

Thanks.
 
perrypip

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Yes you need to get 7.5 to 1 or better on your money on average. But you need to compensate for all the times your set will be beat and all the times you will get no action. If no one has at least a decent pair you're just not going to get much action. So because of that it's suggested you have implied odds of at least 15 to 1. But you can add more if you think they are very passive players.
 
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bigrog70

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Yes you need to get 7.5 to 1 or better on your money on average. But you need to compensate for all the times your set will be beat and all the times you will get no action. If no one has at least a decent pair you're just not going to get much action. So because of that it's suggested you have implied odds of at least 15 to 1. But you can add more if you think they are very passive players.



Thanks! Wow, 15 to 1. It's hard enough getting paid off for 7.5 to 1!
 
DrazaFFT

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Also, you should never limp
;)
 
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bigrog70

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Also, you should never limp
;)


Ah, really? Does the winky mean you are joking? Wouldn't the odds of paying off the flopped set be independent of whether you paid 1BB or something else pre-flop? Do you mean not to limp so that you can represent that you have something else?
 
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Oxinthewater

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I often think of rule of thumb with set, i want about 20x effective stack for the lowest pocket pairs that have no non set value.

You can adjust this number up or down a little. Against an opponent who barrels and bluffs a lot, maybe you don't need quite as much.

I personally would sometimes limp low pockets on a weak table - its less disguised but not all opponents at that level will pickup that you only limp speculative hands. I'm sure most will disagree 🙂
 
DrazaFFT

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Ah, really? Does the winky mean you are joking? Wouldn't the odds of paying off the flopped set be independent of whether you paid 1BB or something else pre-flop? Do you mean not to limp so that you can represent that you have something else?
The wink at the end is to represent that the post is somewhere in the area of stating the obvious. Like when you tell someone to move up where they will respect his raises. Given that i now have to defend the never limp advice i would have to point out that the never limp is my general rule any position any hand any previous action. So to answer your question, do you plan on open limping and ask does it change your pot odds or limping back after limpers to close the action or to be somewhwre in the middle where someone can still steal your money cuz you wanted to see cheap flop. All this situations are diferent and should not be considered if we just never limp. Not limping but raising benefits us in many more situations than just in setmining that makes our life lot easier at micros.
There are really good articles on setmining outthere that cover all the acpets on the issue. Also there are articles on preflop that will justify the no limp thesis too ;)
 
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ph_il

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getting paid off on sets is going to be determined a lot by the the board structure.

for example, if you have 66 on a flop of 6 k q w/ two clubs and you're against 3 other players, you can lead out on the flop for big bets because you're going to get called a lot. or even raised a lot. there are a lot of draws on the flop, kq 2 pair is calling, hands like aq, aj w/ the ace of clubs is calling. so, you're getting paid and you can set it up to to where you can potentially stack a player or even multiple players with your big bets, depending on stack sizes.

whereas, if the flop is 6 2 10 rainbow, then your big bets aren't getting called often unless someone has top pair, over pair, bet set. so, in this spot, you might choose to check the flop and hope someone bets out or the turn is something that could help improve a player if it gets checked down.

in general, bigger hands w/ bigger draws on the flop, you want to play with bigger bets because you're getting called more often. this is also to deny them equity in the hand as well, but the main goal is to build and win big pots with big hands. weaker flops with low draws, you want to play less aggressively because you're likely to not get paid as often. that's just due typically player tendency. a lot of players are willing to see flops with big hands, especially if there is some type of raise preflop. they're more willing to see flop with broadways cards than they are with hands like 69, 54, or 102s, etc.

this doesn't guarantee you'll have the best hand in the end because you can still lose in either situation, but when your hand is really strong, the goal is to get paid of on them and not pay them passively because you fear losing to a better hand.
 
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bigrog70

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The wink at the end is to represent that the post is somewhere in the area of stating the obvious. Like when you tell someone to move up where they will respect his raises. Given that i now have to defend the never limp advice i would have to point out that the never limp is my general rule any position any hand any previous action. So to answer your question, do you plan on open limping and ask does it change your pot odds or limping back after limpers to close the action or to be somewhwre in the middle where someone can still steal your money cuz you wanted to see cheap flop. All this situations are diferent and should not be considered if we just never limp. Not limping but raising benefits us in many more situations than just in setmining that makes our life lot easier at micros.
There are really good articles on setmining outthere that cover all the acpets on the issue. Also there are articles on preflop that will justify the no limp thesis too ;)


I think I'm going to aspire to one day become a never-limper :).
 
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bigrog70

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getting paid off on sets is going to be determined a lot by the the board structure.

for example, if you have 66 on a flop of 6 k q w/ two clubs and you're against 3 other players, you can lead out on the flop for big bets because you're going to get called a lot. or even raised a lot. there are a lot of draws on the flop, kq 2 pair is calling, hands like aq, aj w/ the ace of clubs is calling. so, you're getting paid and you can set it up to to where you can potentially stack a player or even multiple players with your big bets, depending on stack sizes.

whereas, if the flop is 6 2 10 rainbow, then your big bets aren't getting called often unless someone has top pair, over pair, bet set. so, in this spot, you might choose to check the flop and hope someone bets out or the turn is something that could help improve a player if it gets checked down.

in general, bigger hands w/ bigger draws on the flop, you want to play with bigger bets because you're getting called more often. this is also to deny them equity in the hand as well, but the main goal is to build and win big pots with big hands. weaker flops with low draws, you want to play less aggressively because you're likely to not get paid as often. that's just due typically player tendency. a lot of players are willing to see flops with big hands, especially if there is some type of raise preflop. they're more willing to see flop with broadways cards than they are with hands like 69, 54, or 102s, etc.

this doesn't guarantee you'll have the best hand in the end because you can still lose in either situation, but when your hand is really strong, the goal is to get paid of on them and not pay them passively because you fear losing to a better hand.


Thanks. That's extremely helpful.
 
ventrolloquist

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I love flopping the set (pocket pair w/ a matching card on the flop) ... because it's hidden and all. But I find it so rarely gets paid off. Seems like (and I know that's just personal perception w/ biases and all) if I flop the set and bet to take away drawing odds (say half pot), everyone folds ... or I get outdrawn anyway.

But here's my question. Odds of flopping the set are approx. 1-in-8. When calculating implied odds, do I only calculate based on the money that OTHER people bet post-flop. For example, let's say I limp vs. 2 others pre-flop for a pot of 3BB. Does that mean that the pot needs to grow to 8BB after subtracting my post-flop bets, to pay off my pre-flop limp?

Thanks.

This formula tells you what you need to win on future streets in order to break even

X = ( Amt to Call / Hand's Equity ) - POT


derived from:


Pot Odds = Hand's Equity = Amt to Call / ( opp bet + pot size before bets + amt to call + X)
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
where X is the minimum amount you must win on subsequent streets to break even or profit.

[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
POT is the potsize AFTER you call the bet
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you can substitute the decimal probability of hitting a set on the flop for 'Hand's Equity', raw all-in equity will not work as a substitution here because your expected value when you miss your set is worse than the raw equity.
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This formula works postflop as well.
 
ventrolloquist

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This formula tells you what you need to win on future streets in order to break even

X = ( Amt to Call / Hand's Equity ) - POT


derived from:


Pot Odds = Hand's Equity = Amt to Call / ( opp bet + pot size before bets + amt to call + X)
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
where X is the minimum amount you must win on subsequent streets to break even or profit.

[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
POT is the potsize AFTER you call the bet
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
you can substitute the decimal probability of hitting a set on the flop for 'Hand's Equity', raw all-in equity will not work as a substitution here because your expected value when you miss your set is worse than the raw equity.
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
This formula works postflop as well.

I forgot to mention, preflop if you expect BB to call after you, you simply add the amount he will call to the POT variable. Same idea postflop, but be aware that now because you split the equity 3 ways you need to win a bit more than X to make up for the times your set will lose, you must also consider rake. So to roughly factor this in you can set the 'Hand's Equity' variable to 1/10 instead of 1/9 (for your chances of flopping a set)
 
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