Outs vs odds calculator difference

bbennie1

bbennie1

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I have been questioning some of the math in poker and I think it's best to use an example in order to explain.

Player A: :ah4::ac4:

Player B: :8h4::7c4:

Flop: :6s4::as4: 5 diamonds

Player B can win with a 9 or a 4 so he has 8 outs. According to poker odds charts he has 31.5% chance to win the pot. But when I use the odds calculator on this site and other calculators he only has 25.69% chance to win.

Why is the math different? The difference in numbers become huge with about big draws in PLO.
 
R

RocwX

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Probably because the other player can also improve their hand. Suppose player B gets their straight on the turn. In that case, player A could still win by improving to a Full House or Quads on the river.
 
C

ClauACh

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What I can think of, is that in the chart the implied odds are no take in account. Like Rocw said, player A cans still make a full house, and is a 100% win if the turn is 5 or 6 for ex.
 
P

ph_il

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Odds of hitting and odds of winning are 2 different things.

OESD could still hit on turn but lose if AA improves to a boat or better. Or they could hit on river, but it doesn’t matter if AA already improved on turn.
 
juliannorei

juliannorei

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hey people

:damnmate:
On using the HM or other trackers, I'll tell you how I proceeded and think, and this is not the absolute truth, much less am saying what is right or wrong.

I took almost two years playing poker and then decide to use the HM, not because they did not consider something useful, but because I did not feel prepared to use. When I say ready, it is not in the sense of knowing how to read the information he offers me, but in the sense of my evolution as a poker player. This involves the power of observation, the adoption of criteria for creating notes and make decisions.

My fear was not to have a minimum level of play to allow statistics to influence my decisions, and it is almost inevitable priate your game is not yet consolidated (even if u think you are).

It is very easy to "try" to justify its move by the guy was loose, or aggressive, or was giving very 3-bet and you turn on the autopilot based on tracker numbers and forget several other essentials you should dominate but still not mastered enough to avoid this influence as reading the opponent, bet size, board texture, etc. So no tracker will give you, and if you do not have it developed, the tracker will only slow you to learn.

It's kind of learn to drive in an automatic car, you will think and say you know how to drive, but actually does not know and did not have the opportunity to learn 100% to drive and when I give you a normal car, you though "know "driving, do not even know how to engage the first gear.

I know many professional players who do not use any kind of tracker and have excellent results, others installed and then uninstalled and others who typically use every day.

What I think you need to consider is to what extent this can accommodate me with the studies and basic skills I need to develop to be a good player and to what extent I am already able to use.

Poker is already a very difficult game to be mastered and you already trying to master something that "I" also find it difficult to interpret the figures is that the tracker provide. In fact it is a matter of a long course too.

I took one my father exams these days and there were a lot of acronyms and numbers and percentages ... and I was looking at it with that face landscape ... without understanding much. Someone has spent years studying to know that the particular enzyme% in blood mean something, the numbers are there and I did not study that I have no idea what they mean.

The same applies to the numbers of trackers .... ahhhh .. I jammed my hand to the guy who gave raise pre flop utg + 1 because he was "loose" it had 25% VPIP. But that it is served during the hand you failed to realize that this high rate of VPIP is because the guy is a lot of call pre-flop raises, long advocated the blinds and likes to limp in the hands? That is, you did not realize that hand in particular he opened utg + 1 raise (which is not how it got that% of VPIP), then he made value bets, or although you have the second pair of the table, the flop had many draws and the way the guy played showed that he did have a strong hand.

summing up: It is not because the numbers are there that they will help you with something, or even slow you down for making their reasoning settle in the development of the play.

Well ... as always I and my giant posts right, but I tried to spend as happened to me and what I think the use of trackers, and returning to what I said at the beginning, and did not know if I'm right or wrong, no one has to agree thereby.

Hug for everyone!
 
frnandoh

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About that difference, I dont know, but we can make the math with pencil...Player B has only 8 outs with no redraw chance and even when he hit one of his draws, there are cases where he will lose, when player A hit a draw of full house or quads.
In case we have 48 cards on the deck, so:
48 => 100;
01 => X
X = 100/48 = ~2% each out, each street

B outs * 4(flop to river) => 8 * 4 = 32% odds to hit a straight

A outs * 2(to turn) = 7 * 2 = 14
A outs * 2(Turn to river) = 10(Perhaps) * 2 = 20
14 + 20 = 34 % odds to hit quads or full

When player B hits his straight, 34% of times Player A hit a superior hand.
32 * 34% = ~11%

So 32% - 11% = ~21%.

A = Player B has approximately 21% to win the hand.


I think that calcules may help you to have some response even it is not the exact numbers, but it can be a good way. I dont know if it can be understood easily (perhaps not), but I really hope that may help you.
I ask to other members teach me any easier way to calculate odds with precision.
GG
GL
 
frnandoh

frnandoh

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I really would like to know how do you are playing kind of hating the numbers? I guess you are not having a good relation with poker and it is tottaly comprehensible, because poker is a autocontrol game, if we were robots, every decision would be easier. But we are not and for that reason we can see a lot of people explaining the poker game by his own way, to me poker and math are inseparable. Many times ago, drunk gambler guys make ways to be profitable where everyone thought was just luck and now, with all our great technology and information, we refuse to believe in tricks that are being used by millionares and even billionaries enterpreneurships around the world, sick.
If I could give a tip to all CC members, I would say POKER IS ALL MADE BY MATH.
I consider two years a time to get knowledge and evolution. I hope you find your way.
:damnmate:
On using the HM or other trackers, I'll tell you how I proceeded and think, and this is not the absolute truth, much less am saying what is right or wrong.

I took almost two years playing poker and then decide to use the HM, not because they did not consider something useful, but because I did not feel prepared to use. When I say ready, it is not in the sense of knowing how to read the information he offers me, but in the sense of my evolution as a poker player. This involves the power of observation, the adoption of criteria for creating notes and make decisions.

My fear was not to have a minimum level of play to allow statistics to influence my decisions, and it is almost inevitable priate your game is not yet consolidated (even if u think you are).

It is very easy to "try" to justify its move by the guy was loose, or aggressive, or was giving very 3-bet and you turn on the autopilot based on tracker numbers and forget several other essentials you should dominate but still not mastered enough to avoid this influence as reading the opponent, bet size, board texture, etc. So no tracker will give you, and if you do not have it developed, the tracker will only slow you to learn.

It's kind of learn to drive in an automatic car, you will think and say you know how to drive, but actually does not know and did not have the opportunity to learn 100% to drive and when I give you a normal car, you though "know "driving, do not even know how to engage the first gear.

I know many professional players who do not use any kind of tracker and have excellent results, others installed and then uninstalled and others who typically use every day.

What I think you need to consider is to what extent this can accommodate me with the studies and basic skills I need to develop to be a good player and to what extent I am already able to use.

Poker is already a very difficult game to be mastered and you already trying to master something that "I" also find it difficult to interpret the figures is that the tracker provide. In fact it is a matter of a long course too.

I took one my father exams these days and there were a lot of acronyms and numbers and percentages ... and I was looking at it with that face landscape ... without understanding much. Someone has spent years studying to know that the particular enzyme% in blood mean something, the numbers are there and I did not study that I have no idea what they mean.

The same applies to the numbers of trackers .... ahhhh .. I jammed my hand to the guy who gave raise pre flop utg + 1 because he was "loose" it had 25% VPIP. But that it is served during the hand you failed to realize that this high rate of VPIP is because the guy is a lot of call pre-flop raises, long advocated the blinds and likes to limp in the hands? That is, you did not realize that hand in particular he opened utg + 1 raise (which is not how it got that% of VPIP), then he made value bets, or although you have the second pair of the table, the flop had many draws and the way the guy played showed that he did have a strong hand.

summing up: It is not because the numbers are there that they will help you with something, or even slow you down for making their reasoning settle in the development of the play.

Well ... as always I and my giant posts right, but I tried to spend as happened to me and what I think the use of trackers, and returning to what I said at the beginning, and did not know if I'm right or wrong, no one has to agree thereby.

Hug for everyone!
 
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