Missing EV on latest streets

killing_random

killing_random

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I've seen too much bullshit on turn and river, and now I'm affraid to collect EV on these streets with a second nuts.
Like top pair on a dry board, two pairs-set on a straight-flush-draw, straight-flush on community pairs. Especially when I being check-called as aggressor all the way to the river.

Would it be cash, I could just ignore all these fears and push my chips, but on MTT I need a better reason to do so and I missing it, untill I saw a showdown with second pair or unclosed draw.
 
Phoenix Wright

Phoenix Wright

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Obviously it greatly depends on the specific opponent(s), your cards, the action, pot odds, meta-game factors and so on. Instead of complicating it, I'll just say every situation is unique ;)

In general, (assuming you are playing a solid strategy/play-style) I think the "missing" element is what worse likely holdings will pay you off. If you have second nuts to a flush on board, then yes the nut flush could beat you - and sometimes they will have exactly that! However, think about all the other holdings they might have that could pay you. For example, the third nuts (or any lower flush in this example really). Perhaps even top pair hands or two pair hands etc. It depends on many factors including the action, but chances are that there are many more hands that you would also beat and for this reason, you are generally incentivized to continue.

Don't forget pot odds too :) You don't even have to win half of the time to turn a profit in some scenarios. This might make it justifiable to continue as well.

Clearly there are times to fold, cut your losses, or give up on the hand: but in many cases, there are many reasons to continue as well :cool:
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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Killing_random, permit me an observation :)

While it's great to adjust to different formats, I think you may be concentrating a bit too much in general on lowering MTT variance and modifying tournament lines relative to how you'd play in a cash game.

If you have top pair on a dry board, and believe it would be profitable to value-bet in a cash game (assuming same opponent type, effective stack, etc), then you should usually be betting in a tournament. The occasional exception is when you're mid-stacked on a bubble or with payjumps and have very good reason to be risk-averse for this portion of your stack.

In most post-flop situations, however, if you've identified a play that has positive chip expectation, that's great and you should take it!
 
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