Looking After Your Money

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Running Nose II

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Most casino games have a negative expectation, that is the longer you play the more likely you will lose. Poker on the other hand has a positive expectation for good players and they expect to win. As a beginner it is sensible to set yourself both a winning and a losing target. When you reach your win target STOP, because as sure as anything you will start to lose. Don't be greedy, settle for what you have. A loss limit is absolutely vital. If you are getting rubbish hand after rubbish hand, or you are suffering bad beats, it can effect you mentally and you will start making poor decisions and playing below your standard hands. When this happens leave the table.
 
oriole

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Setting a win target is not a good idea. What's wrong with being greedy in poker as long as you have the edge over other players?
 
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karl coakley

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Setting a win target is not a good idea. What's wrong with being greedy in poker as long as you have the edge over other players?

It really is a good idea. Variance catches up with you. You can be running really hot and lose everything in 1 hand. Online it is far better to take your win and switch tables.

Most people learn this the hard way.
 
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veruska A1

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Good morning.
1. Never put a winning limit, It is the first mistake .. you have to play for fun, with no expectations and never expecting to win anything.
2. When you have a bad run it is best to get out of the game, take time, rest and then come back. The most important thing is never to get impatient or stressed.
 
quick

quick

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Winning limits aren't really the best idea. Stop losses are better. Sure Ferguson preached the idea of leaving a table when the amount in your stack represents 10% or more of your total roll , but this concept doesn't mean you "leave" the session or game, you might just rebuy full at another table or take a break and come back at the initial buy in.

Sure variance can leave you scratching your head wondering where your 3x BI stack went after a guy with 4x your stack calls from behind and gets a 1 outer on river to get quads against your flopped boat but long term we want these spots.

One thing I've noticed as I continue to focus on mental game theory as well as discipline and attention to focus and concentration is that I naturally start to "check" where I'm at on the tables after a bit of playing. I don't say "well I'm up 2BIs overall time to leave" rather I say "let's take a moment to see how I'm feeling. Do I need a break, have a made a few mistakes in the past few hands, does this mean I'm fatigued? Did I get stacked just now and then in another hand make a big error or feel tilted? " So basically if I conclude that I now feel tired, need a break, or something changed in my focus and concentration where I'm not making the best decisions and focusing on the current hand only, I may leave the table. I've found now I almost always automatically leave a table if I drop more than 2 BIs and usually if I find myself struggling across multiple tables and and am down more 3BIs or more it seems to match up with a feeling of being fatigued and not playing optimal poker, thus time for a break or stop for the day even.

Basically sometimes I leave up, sometimes I leave down. I try to leave up but as soon as I begin to consider leaving the table I must ask myself why. Usually it's fatigue impacting level of play which means it's a good idea to leave.

There's other variables to consider too of course. I mean if I'm at a 6max game with 3x the BI why leave? I'm doing well and it's ok to lose a little profit in the pursuit of more profit with sound decisions. I mean I'd rather be up at a table and playing with that profit than down at a table and having to keep monitoring for the creeping in feeling of "needing to get even again." Also if the table changes, players leave or whatever, then I might leave.

Overall my point is to consider leaving based on either a stop loss OR on how you feel in your current mental state when playing. If any time something changes: fatigue, tilt, lack of focus, stuck thinking about a prior hand, too much focus on a certain dollar amount, it's time to consider leaving the table if you can't get refocused.

Sure we all want to see our number rise and lock in that "profit." But remember the next time you sit down you could win a ton or lose a ton (which situation do you want to set a stop limit to?) so "locking in a win" really does nothing long term for profits , it might feel good, but it doesn't reflect your abilities OR your true earnings long term. Case in point: in my current challenge I went on a nice heater across a few sessions. Then in one day promptly lost 6BIs of that. Took a break, next two days recovered most of it back. Yeah it would've been nice to keep seeing the BR go up and up, but I'd rather play good poker and see it go up and down and look at my roll and know I'm well rolled now and safely minimizing risks of going busto. It's a lot easier to dig out of a downswing I think when you have the bankroll management and discipline down (keep enough BIs in the roll, set stop losses, keep attuned to your emotional and mental state during play) then if you just keep leaving whenever up, you're not preparing yourself game wise or mentally for the inevitable losing sessions which are just part of poker. Do everything right and still lose, it's going to happen. You need to feel that experience of being up X amount of BIs, getting the money in good when playing good and then having it all sucked away in one hand by some guy with 102o rivering a 1 outer. If you have the discipline and focus, you'll be mad but will get over it, not let it tilt you, and not feel like you need to run every time you're up a few bucks for fear of losing that profit short term.
 
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quick

quick

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Also because I'm on a roll here with mental game stuff I wanted to add to my other reply and address each one of these individually. I'm open to others thoughts on my replies to this. Even though I'm in the psych field for a living and have played poker over a decade, there's definitely folks here who have both the profits/wins and long term success in poker that I'm still trying to achieve who may have even more sage insight than I do currently:

Setting a win target is not a good idea. What's wrong with being greedy in poker as long as you have the edge over other players?

I agree. I mean if we're at a table playing with a large stack in a cash game, we have to be willing to use that edge (more chips, playing with profits) to try and gain more. The larger stack itself is an edge. I mean I'm not adverse to leaving if say one isn't comfortable playing like a 6x BI stack at a table and wants to say "hey I'll leave if I lose 2 BIs of this profit." It's acknowledging willingness to take the necessary risk and gain more from an obviously good running session but also being willing to see that mentally there's a fear of losing all that profit. No shame in that. But definitely maximize the good sessions and play with the on the table profits. Only risk to avoid is trying to trick yourself into playing differently to "pretend I'm only playing with the profits."

Most casino games have a negative expectation, that is the longer you play the more likely you will lose. Poker on the other hand has a positive expectation for good players and they expect to win. As a beginner it is sensible to set yourself both a winning and a losing target. When you reach your win target STOP, because as sure as anything you will start to lose. Don't be greedy, settle for what you have. A loss limit is absolutely vital. If you are getting rubbish hand after rubbish hand, or you are suffering bad beats, it can effect you mentally and you will start making poor decisions and playing below your standard hands. When this happens leave the table.

"because as sure as anything you will start to lose." - This is what some might call "monsters under the bed syndrome" or "magical thinking." Basically, what tells you you're "sure you'll start to lose." The cards have no memory of the last hand and neither should you while you're playing the next hand (except in considering the villain and how they play). If you convince yourself that you're going to start losing you will. You've mentally set yourself up for failure. You actually point this out in the end of your comment on the loss limit "effect you mentally and start making poor decisions." 100% spot on at the end. The fear or believe you'll "start losing" is the same concept.

Good morning.
1. Never put a winning limit, It is the first mistake .. you have to play for fun, with no expectations and never expecting to win anything.
2. When you have a bad run it is best to get out of the game, take time, rest and then come back. The most important thing is never to get impatient or stressed.

Agreed on mostly all of this. Some might disagree with the bad run "getting out of the game." Some people advocate playing through bad runs with the caveat that one is mentally disinclined and sure they are emotionally/mentally playing their A game still. Obviously, again if you feel like you need a break or it's tilting you with bad runs , take a break. Once you feel impatient or stressed it's time to take even just a few minutes away.

It really is a good idea. Variance catches up with you. You can be running really hot and lose everything in 1 hand. Online it is far better to take your win and switch tables.

You can indeed lose everything in 1 hand. Everything on the table. But with proper bankroll management you're only really risking what's on the table which should only be a small fraction of your entire poker roll. In these spots where you run hot then lose on a single hand, go back and look over the hand. Did you lose because you got coolered or did you make a bad decision and really got it in way behind? As for switching tables, I agree it's ok to switch tables to protect some profit, but again if the table is juicy, the players are bad, and you're playing well there, it might be better to stay.

Most people learn this the hard way.

Well said. I think most of us have been through it. I actually think, and many pros talk about this, that it's almost good to go through losing your bankroll because of a dumb decision, going on tilt, things like that at some point. You've got to fail sometimes to get better. You've got to experience the losses to learn. Not only the losses that sometimes lady luck deals, but the losses that could have been minimized or avoided had we had hindsight, discipline, and patience.
 
oriole

oriole

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It really is a good idea. Variance catches up with you. You can be running really hot and lose everything in 1 hand. Online it is far better to take your win and switch tables.

Most people learn this the hard way.
What if you are playing with someone who is completely new to poker? Are you going to leave the table after you double your stack? Very bad idea.
 
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karl coakley

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I get what everyone is saying about limiting your wins, but the reality is that regardless of how good you are, what cards you are dealt, you are going to lose.

Its just math.

You can't sit down indefinitely and expect to win. You have to chose your spots. I've learned this the hard way over several years. Playing live I would run 200.00 to 2000.00 and then lose most of it back with my "unbeatable" hand. I've learned to control the pots better and that when you are up, you need to leave a winner.

While you don't have to say "when I double up I'm quitting" there has to be a point where you take a profit or you will never be a winning player. I don't think setting a limit and adjust it as necessary as being a bad thing.
 
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WisdomMan87

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you need to stay within your bankroll and move up and down based on your roll. If you can't identify the fish at the table then you are probably the fish.:)
 
MoeJurphy

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You should quit when your edge decreases against the rest of the table (if we are talking cash games as you don't have a choice in tournaments lol), if you have an edge over a table why would you stop playing, surely long term you will be winning more?
 
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Running Nose II

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Karl : I think that you have to sit down with a positive mind set. If you tell yourself that you are going to lose, as sure as fate you will. It happens, one bad hand can put a dent in your stack, but you must get over it.
 
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marakhovskii

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Most casino games have a negative expectation, that is the longer you play the more likely you will lose. Poker on the other hand has a positive expectation for good players and they expect to win. As a beginner it is sensible to set yourself both a winning and a losing target. When you reach your win target STOP, because as sure as anything you will start to lose. Don't be greedy, settle for what you have. A loss limit is absolutely vital. If you are getting rubbish hand after rubbish hand, or you are suffering bad beats, it can effect you mentally and you will start making poor decisions and playing below your standard hands. When this happens leave the table.

I think that your point of view is quite reasonable, and I advise her to adhere to and not forget to deduce winnings.
 
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