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Originally Posted by bellicoso
Hey shoot, tilt is my biggest issue. It seems like, the more I study and try to continue to make good decisions, the more I take bad beats.
...well, this is just naturally going to happen. when you make better decisions and you get your money in with better equity edges, you're going to experience more 'bad beats'. it's not that poker is rigged or anything, it's just that many tend to associate bad beats as losing when they're huge favorites.
lets take two scenarios where you lose as a 95% favorite and a 65% favorite. you have an equity edge in both, but i'm sure losing as a 95% favorite is going to be more devastating to you than losing as a 65% favorite, but, in the long term, you're losing as a 65% favorite way more often than you are as a 95% favorite. so, it's not that you're taking more bad beats usual, because it all balances in the long term, it's just, as you improve and you play better, make better decisions, and you have better understanding of the game, really big losses, as rare as they might be, are going to have a bigger impact.
plus if you've been on a bad run, you've lost numerous flips in a row, busted out as 55-65% favorite in a number of mtts, etc, and suddenly you lose as a 95% favorite on the turn, it's going have a huge affect on a lot of people. it's just going to feel that all you're doing is losing, but you have to think in long terms. short term bad luck means nothing.
lets say long term is 100k hands you play where you have 75% equity or better to win, preflop. you're making so much value that the randoms you lose as a huge favorite 20, 30, 50, even 100 times a row is not going to matter when you're winning 75k times. when you're winning that much, what's 100 loses in a row?
it's like when you tell someone you've made $1000 in profits from poker and they ask 'but how much did you lose?'. that's a stupid question. so, think about it in the same way. if you're winning 75k hands and profiting off it, are you going ask yourself, 'but how many bad beats did i get?' no, because it doesn't matter.
Is this simply supposed to end?
...no. bad beats will never end unless you quit poker. bad beats, losing, is inevitable. just like you coming back as an underdog and winning is inevitable. it's going to happen. you're going to win a lot more often the bigger equity edge you have, but losing as a favorite isn't impossible.
but the goal of poker isn't to not take beats or avoid them. the goal is to make money off of your +ev decisions and take advantage of players that make -ev decisions. that's it. better decisions, more profit. results don't matter in the long term.
lets take this scenario. lets say i challenge you to a game of dice rolling. the rules are, we both put a $1 wager. if you roll a 1-5, you win the $2 pot. if you roll a 6, i win the $2 pot. we can play as long as you like. would you like to play?
this should absolutely be a 100% 'yes' from you because you're making so much value from this game. you're making, on average, $1.49 with each roll of the dice. why would you not want to play this game? but lets say, you get unlucky and you roll a 6 10x in a row. pretty bad, right? i guess you should give up you're getting so many bad beats, right? no! of course not because you know you're still making so much value off the game. you just want to keep going. in fact, you might ask to up the ante so you can make even more money.
the same thing goes with poker. even if you lose as an 83% favorite in poker, you should keep doing the same thing because you're winning so much in the long term. you might lose as an 83 favorite in 1 game or 20 games, but it's still profitable. plus, unlike the dice game, poker isn't just a 1 hand game. you might lose as an 83% favorite 20x in a row, but there are so many others hands you're playing where you're winning. you might win as a 60% favorite 30x in a row, or a 75% favorite 20/25 times, etc. and at the same time, you're folding to huge bets when you're only a 10% favorite and not giving up value.
so, it all adds up. you're focusing on making +ev decisions with all your hands, strong or weak. as long as you keep it up, you're going to profit. the more money you can get it with as a huge favorite, the more you make. the less money you can lose as a huge underdog, the more you make.
Is it just coincidence that I happen to have learned more in the last few weeks AND I'm also taking so many bad beats?
...i answered this above but real quick, it's not that that you're taking more bad beats, you're just going to realize your losses a bit more as you make your +ev decisions.
I am really eager to take down a decent tournament on ACR... but it seems to evade me. I've cashed several times in the last few weeks (even made it as far as fifth place), but cannot secure a win...
...mtts are notoriously hard to win, especially with large fields, long late registrations, and flat payout structures.
winning an mtt takes a ton of luck and the bigger the field, the more luck you're going to need. in a field of 1000 players, assuming no re-entry or re-buy, you have a .1% chance to win if skill level is equal. you might win more if you're a much better player than the field, but it's still going to be something like 2-3 wins/1000 mtts played.
the popularity win mtts is that anyone can get lucky with them. someone can potentially go all in every and and win an mtt. how often is that going to happen? very very rarely, but it isn't impossible. and that's the difference where skill and luck comes in. you're virtually never going to win a mtt on on luck alone, but you're never going to win an mtt on just skill alone. it's combination of both. i don't want to go too deep into this because it's such so much but, basically, skill allows you to avoid -ev spots and to put yourself into +ev situations. then after that it's just a bit of luck. if you can get your stack in as an 80% favorite, whether you win or lose is just luck from that point. it's out of your control. you're never going to win an mtt without a bit of luck, but if you're putting yourself in much better positions to win, it's going to happen more often.
another thing is mtt survival vs chip accumulation. what's important to you? for some, surving as long as possible is important in an mtt and they want to avoid taking big risks. you'll see it on cc sometimes where someone will say 'i'd rather just fold and not risk 30-50 big blinds with [big hand] because i can lose and bust out here, but if i fold i can survive much longer.' if the goal it last as long as possible, then fold. but if you want to give yourself a better chance to win, you need chips. its not impossible to still win if you fold and keep 50 big blinds 100% of the time, but i'd argue that taking the +ev risk and having a 100+ bb stack is going to make things much easier for you, even if you do risk busting out of the mtt sometimes.
watch some of the big mtt players on youtube like lex veldhuis and you'll see that they'll get their money with hands like qq for 50+ big blinds preflop because, they know, if they win, they give themselves that more of an edge over the the competition and they increase their chances of winning.
i added a video i watched years back that completely changed my approach to mtts. it was such a simple change for me that allowed to start having huge mtt runs, making numerous final tables, and winning mtts. this on top watching coaching videos, training videos, going through a ton of trial and error, and just making the best decisions i can is how i do well. now, i don't play large mtt fields cant say how i'd do in those, but the same concepts apply. more +ev decisions and get lucky, that's all you can do.
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