How Bad Can Variance Be?

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creamyitalian

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Hey all. Newbie on here looking for a reality check/advice but not new to the game. Not sure if I'm tilting, it's variance or if it's just a hole in my game but for the last two weeks it seems as if every big pot I'm in runs into 3 suited cards on the board. I know it's mathematically impossible for me to run into a flush every time but that's what it seems like. I have two pair, lose to a flush. Flop a straight, villain hits his flush on the river. Successful set mining, but someone flopped a flush. It's brutal. I think my sizing is right on my C bets (55-65% of pot) but folks just hang on and hit their flush. Maybe I'm venting or maybe I'm asking for advice but my bankroll has taken a major hit.....
 
boyward

boyward

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I have had a similar situation today, albeit at micro stakes. Tomorrow is another day. Will see what happens in those days. Hope you get a better run on luck soon.
 
shinmenkami

shinmenkami

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It depends on how the villain bets, but sometimes is healthy to do some pot controll
 
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PEGAMEUALLIN

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don't get involved in marginal hands, trying to get value, play a worthy hand and try to get it right
 
Pokerpoet2

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Hey all. Newbie on here looking for a reality check/advice but not new to the game. Not sure if I'm tilting, it's variance or if it's just a hole in my game but for the last two weeks it seems as if every big pot I'm in runs into 3 suited cards on the board. I know it's mathematically impossible for me to run into a flush every time but that's what it seems like. I have two pair, lose to a flush. Flop a straight, villain hits his flush on the river. Successful set mining, but someone flopped a flush. It's brutal. I think my sizing is right on my C bets (55-65% of pot) but folks just hang on and hit their flush. Maybe I'm venting or maybe I'm asking for advice but my bankroll has taken a major hit.....



If you are playing 2 pair with 2 same suited cards on the flop, the odds of making your Full-House are far worse than some one who has 4 cards to the flush, basically you only have 4 outs to his 9 maybe more if he is also drawing to a straight, or straight flush, he would stay in the hand especially if he is drawing to the nut flush.
Both hands are worth having a punt on, but depending on how your opponent has a read on your playing style, He might believe you to be overly aggressive betting more than half pot on a draw?
If you had made your hand on the flop a smaller bet would keep some one interested in coming along to see if he can make his nut Flush, but be careful if the flush completes. I have known some people to believe that if they have 8/7 in there hand. and the flop comes 7/6/6 then they have 2 pair, regardless of the fact that some one sat with pocket 9s or 10s have a better 2 pair.

When the fun Stops, STOP!
 
D

DIANTA

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Being in a similar situation, I tried to analyze the strength of my hands and the correctness of my bets on all streets. If you are ahead in these parameters, then most likely, over time, there will be a much opposite situation.
I force myself to value the better step more than the specific win.

Anyway, good luck.
 
Adi8877

Adi8877

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Hey all. Newbie on here looking for a reality check/advice but not new to the game. Not sure if I'm tilting, it's variance or if it's just a hole in my game but for the last two weeks it seems as if every big pot I'm in runs into 3 suited cards on the board. I know it's mathematically impossible for me to run into a flush every time but that's what it seems like. I have two pair, lose to a flush. Flop a straight, villain hits his flush on the river. Successful set mining, but someone flopped a flush. It's brutal. I think my sizing is right on my C bets (55-65% of pot) but folks just hang on and hit their flush. Maybe I'm venting or maybe I'm asking for advice but my bankroll has taken a major hit.....


Unfortunately, it happens, I had the similar color mania in the last few weeks mixed with river 2-6 outs, however in the last few days, it looks like ending. This was the 2nd one in 150-80 active days, it was ongoing for 10-15 days, with 2 days exception.
Probably, I take more attention for these, as it drives me out from patiance, and clearly visible, but I try to track, count on these, because it happens again and again. I did not get a flush long run like this, sometimes it was ongoing for 2-3 days, but never longer, and usually in the next weeks I did not have to count on flushes, risk the double, triple ups for a flush draw, not even small pots, as it came rarely...

And yes, I know how it affects the bankroll, all similar runs against you, obviously. One of the hardest to handle, even I play mostly tourneys. Most of the time, I can't, partly that's why I do not like to have more than 100 buyin worth money on my poker account. If I burn it, as yes, I can, mostly because of rebuys and reg higher buyin tourneys in 'tilt mode', prefer to make withdrawals more often, even smaller amounts, so if it happens, I can have few days off, or play just very micro, freerolls, until it goes, then I make a deposit again, often I do not have to, can build it up from micros again.
In the last half year, mostly the river 1-3-6 outs were killing me in runs like that, that happened 4-5 times, 2 times, when the AKs did not work at all, as I play plenty turbo, hyper, these are preflop allin cards often for me, so can cost a lot. Usually these runs, what I clearly recognized, counted lasted for 1-3 weeks.
Generally, the online variance, RNG factor, is a bit wilder, maybe not even a bit, than live poker variance, at least I experience it like that.

Next to all of these, I still can make a small, but fix profit in longer view. No huge up and downs, at all.

So, my opinion, I do not think it means much, except the money you lost in short term, few weeks. If you think, you face with the same problem after months, quarter, half year, then probably, yes, you do something repetatively not profitable. Oh, also depends on what you exactly play, how often etc, but I think half year, should be enough to see it, except you play only 2k+ reg, low, med+ stake tourneys, there I can imagine even a bit longer period for getting the picture.
 
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Ultfrozen

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Two weeks is not long at all.. I have been like this for almost 3 months, I analyzed the game and did mostly everything right, just very unlucky and the players who made bad decisions were rewarded.. but then it passed, the black and blue stripes go one after the other)
 
C

creamyitalian

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Thanks all, I appreciate the feedback. I do think a little more pot control and moving down in stakes will at least help me with my bankroll till I get through this.

I'll give you all one more vent - Last night I'm in position with pocket deuces. Call a min raise for the sole purpose of set mining. See a flop of 10, 10, 2 with two other players. I've got a boat! First player checks, second player bets about half pot. I happily call assuming he either has two overcards or a 10x. Player A folds. Turn is a 7. Villain bets about 65% of the pot, I happily call assuming at this point that he definitely has 10x. A low brick river follows (maybe a 4?) and the Villian throws his stack in. I happily call...till he turns over pocket 7's. There goes my stack.

I laugh because you just can't make this stuff up.....

Thanks again all!
 
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Houdini9

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Thanks all, I appreciate the feedback. I do think a little more pot control and moving down in stakes will at least help me with my bankroll till I get through this.

I'll give you all one more vent - Last night I'm in position with pocket deuces. Call a min raise for the sole purpose of set mining. See a flop of 10, 10, 2 with two other players. I've got a boat! First player checks, second player bets about half pot. I happily call assuming he either has two overcards or a 10x. Player A folds. Turn is a 7. Villain bets about 65% of the pot, I happily call assuming at this point that he definitely has 10x. A low brick river follows (maybe a 4?) and the Villian throws his stack in. I happily call...till he turns over pocket 7's. There goes my stack.

I laugh because you just can't make this stuff up.....

Thanks again all!



For sure, be really careful with 22 and a flopped set. Fact is, 2 - 8 is just a really shit value in cards. Try not to be so tricky with low values unless you are playing super super deep and can risk it. I would really try to stay away from risking my whole stack on a weak set. Be selective and your win rate will improve significantly.

GL GL,

HOUDIN9
 
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PEGAMEUALLIN

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if there is a 1% chance of losing, take care of the variance, it may disappoint you
 
MrPokerVerse

MrPokerVerse

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Variance isn't a problem until you have been through it. Longer it last, more it can beat you down. Each time you get through it, becomes less of an issue. You want be mathematically ahead on calls, even if you come up short. Have to see the value of making the right call verses the outcome.
 
1

1nsomn1a

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You can not control the variance, better control the number of chips invested, if the opponent pulls the draw to the last try to lose fewer chips, and be aggressive in other situations. When the flush is not going to he will give up, which gives you the opportunity to bluff more often on the river, use it to partially compensate for the loss.:)
 
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randywalstad

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respect the process there will be swings embrace the grind
 
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