Hey all. Newbie on here looking for a reality check/advice but not new to the game. Not sure if I'm tilting, it's variance or if it's just a hole in my game but for the last two weeks it seems as if every big pot I'm in runs into 3 suited cards on the board. I know it's mathematically impossible for me to run into a flush every time but that's what it seems like. I have two pair, lose to a flush. Flop a straight, villain hits his flush on the river. Successful set mining, but someone flopped a flush. It's brutal. I think my sizing is right on my C bets (55-65% of pot) but folks just hang on and hit their flush. Maybe I'm venting or maybe I'm asking for advice but my bankroll has taken a major hit.....
Unfortunately, it happens, I had the similar color mania in the last few weeks mixed with river 2-6 outs, however in the last few days, it looks like ending. This was the 2nd one in 150-80 active days, it was ongoing for 10-15 days, with 2 days exception.
Probably, I take more attention for these, as it drives me out from patiance, and clearly visible, but I try to track, count on these, because it happens again and again. I did not get a flush long run like this, sometimes it was ongoing for 2-3 days, but never longer, and usually in the next weeks I did not have to count on flushes, risk the double, triple ups for a flush draw, not even small pots, as it came rarely...
And yes, I know how it affects the bankroll, all similar runs against you, obviously. One of the hardest to handle, even I play mostly tourneys. Most of the time, I can't, partly that's why I do not like to have more than 100 buyin worth money on my poker account. If I burn it, as yes, I can, mostly because of rebuys and reg higher buyin tourneys in 'tilt mode', prefer to make withdrawals more often, even smaller amounts, so if it happens, I can have few days off, or play just very micro,
freerolls, until it goes, then I make a deposit again, often I do not have to, can build it up from micros again.
In the last half year, mostly the river 1-3-6 outs were killing me in runs like that, that happened 4-5 times, 2 times, when the AKs did not work at all, as I play plenty turbo, hyper, these are preflop allin cards often for me, so can cost a lot. Usually these runs, what I clearly recognized, counted lasted for 1-3 weeks.
Generally, the online variance, RNG factor, is a bit wilder, maybe not even a bit, than live poker variance, at least I experience it like that.
Next to all of these, I still can make a small, but fix profit in longer view. No huge up and downs, at all.
So, my opinion, I do not think it means much, except the money you lost in short term, few weeks. If you think, you face with the same problem after months, quarter, half year, then probably, yes, you do something repetatively not profitable. Oh, also depends on what you exactly play, how often etc, but I think half year, should be enough to see it, except you play only 2k+ reg, low, med+ stake tourneys, there I can imagine even a bit longer period for getting the picture.
