This is a discussion on Hand Equity vs Opponents Range within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hello Guys,
I would just want to ask on how do you calculate (manually) your hand equity against your opponents range when deciding to call or
I would just want to ask on how do you calculate (manually) your hand equity against your opponents range when deciding to call or fold a bet especially on the river on live games
I found lots of good stuff here on Cardschat about calculating outs, pot-odds, hand equity pre-flop and putting your opponents on ranges while the hand develop to the river. But I am so confuse on how to use the range you put your opponents in relation to the pot odds and your hand equity before you can consider calling or folding on the final bet on the river.
From what I understand is that on the final call/fold decision, still you will need to calculate the pot odds which is easy since the pot and the amount you call is already in front of you and you just need to do the pot odds calculation, but in order to justify a call is you need to have hand equity in percentage greater than the pot odds percentage right?
So you calculate the hand equity on final bets on river based on your opponents hand range where you put them, not on your outs unlike on what we do on flop and turn, since there are no more streets to come. But how do you determine if your hand has this x amount of percentage against your opponents range?
Here is a quick example:
I often here people saying during the course of a hand review that "I crush mostly his range of hands", but when I look at it there are still like 5 hands or more that can beat the hero, and hero beats like 10-15 hands that are on his opponents range so hero calls.
I do not understand how they calculate their hand equity and weigh their hand into calling against the opponents range. So is there a specific guide on when you beat 10-15 hands that are on your opponents range you call?
I hope this question makes sense, I tried to state my question as clearly as possible since my mind is really clouded about the topic, I just can't understand the math behind calculating or weighing your hand against your opponents range to justify a call or a fold.
Hopefully someone will correct me if my understanding is wrong and will give additional information about this topic.
This is an interesting question that I don't know if there is an answer for. By the time the river comes there are so many variables that come in to play. I don't think they are saying if you can beat 10-15 hands in villain's range its an automatic call, however with this line of thinking I wouldn't know how you could fold. Here's the thing, by the time the river comes you can almost justify any call because the pot is so big, that you don't have to be getting amazing odds to make a call. Here's another thing to consider, I feel the river bluff is one of the hardest to pull off, so I found if someone is betting on the river they probably have a hand. Mind you this is in lower stakes games because this is all I play. That being said I'm well aware of higher level thinking in the higher buyin games where river bet bluffing is a little more common I imagine. I will be following this thread, and I hope your question is not too confusing for people to understand.
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I'm not sure if it's possible to do it in a live game. Maybe during a review, but not live.
You'd need to assume all combos the villain could hold, combined with the board. Just to have an idea, a tight player who bets his 5% best hands has 49 combos.
Well, let's assume this scenario:
you = 87s
board = 9h 2h 4c Tc Kd
villain range = top 5% (all pairs from 88 to AA, AKo, AKs, AQs, KQs)
You are definitely out of equity. You had a straight draw till turn, then you got nothing.
Now, changing the villain range to 50% (maybe he was at BB, calling station - lol), you'd have 2,3% of equity. But, with such a wide range he could have 507 combinations. It's just impossible to calculate that in a live game.
When facing a raise at river or if you want to raise it (bluff), just keep it simple and try to put the board into yours and villain's range. Does the board connect better with your hand, or his? How many show down have you seen from him? Does he play more tight? What's his table position, and did you was aggressive enough to make a weaker range to fold?
It's much more difficult then appears to be! lol
I did all this scenarios using an Android app called 'Holdem LAB'. Sry not posting the pics, I couldn't do that using my phone (got a weird error on file format.. Whatever)
I know it's a old topic. I hope it makes sense and it's useful for you guys.
Math is an important thing to understand in poker, but learning to play with people is more important.
I think you are trying too hard. Most poker players I know quickly figure the percentage of their hand winning pre-flop (ie. 50/50, 60/40, 80/20), how to count their outs, and how to figure the pot odds. The rest is a "people" game.
Getting a read on people is far more important than more in-depth math during the game. It is a game of incomplete information. The "math" is never perfect, in fact, most of the time you are counting "outs" that you really don't have because some were folded. During the game the "math" is really just a ballpark to help with your decisions.