B
Brewhaus
Rising Star
Bronze Level
I am attempting to create a basic shove chart but I'm getting way different results then normal shove charts and I don't know why. I don't know if the formula I am using is missing something... With a 10% ante and 9 people at the table my formula is saying that the small blind should be shoving every hand as long as they have 17BB or less. Clearly this is insane. Could anyone please tell me what I'm doing wrong? Here is the formula and values I'm using and an example with 72o.
Formulas:
Fp = 1 - Cp
Wa = 1.5 + (Ap * Pdc)
Ev = Fp * Wa + Cp * (Eq * (Wa + Bb) - (1 - Eq) * Bb)
Cp = Call percent - The percentage of hands the big blind will call your shove
Fp = Fold Percent - The percentage of hands the big blind will fold
Ap = Ante Percent - Then percent of the big blind the ante is (usually 0%, 10% or 12.5%)
Pdc = Players dealt cards - The total number of player that were dealt cards (and therefor that anted)
Wa = Win amount - The amount in the pot when you shove (Small blind (.5) + Big blind (1) + antes)
Eq = Equity - The chance you win a showdown against the big blinds expected hands
Bb = Big blinds - The number of big blinds you have left to shove
Ev = Expected value - The number of big blinds you can expect to win on average per shove
Example:
My hand: 72o
My stack: 15 big blinds after ante and posting of small blind
Big blind call range: 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo (this seems really loose to me for a 15 bb shove but the tighter the range the higher the EV due to the fold percentage)
Cp = 25.19% (The above listed hands make up 25.19% of all possible hands)
Fp = 1 - Cp
Fp = 1 - 25.19%
Fp = 74.81%
Ap = 10%
Pdc = 9
Wa = 1.5 + (Ap * Pdc)
Wa = 1.5 + (10% * 9)
Wa = 1.5 + .9
Wa = 2.4
Eq = 28.18% (Run in Equilab)
Bb = 15 (Specified above)
Ev = Fp * Wa + Cp * (Eq * (Wa + Bb) - (1 - Eq) * Bb)
Ev = 74.81% * 2.4 + 25.19% * (28.18% * (2.4 + 15) - (1 - 28.18%) * 15)
Ev = 1.79544 + 25.19% * (28.18% * 17.4 - (71.82%) * 15)
Ev = 1.79544 + 25.19% * (4.90332 - 10.773)
Ev = 1.79544 + 25.19% * -5.86968
Ev = 1.79544 - 1.478572392
Ev =.316867608
So shoving 72o from the small blind with 15bb has a positive EV? This can't be right. What am I doing wrong?
Formulas:
Fp = 1 - Cp
Wa = 1.5 + (Ap * Pdc)
Ev = Fp * Wa + Cp * (Eq * (Wa + Bb) - (1 - Eq) * Bb)
Cp = Call percent - The percentage of hands the big blind will call your shove
Fp = Fold Percent - The percentage of hands the big blind will fold
Ap = Ante Percent - Then percent of the big blind the ante is (usually 0%, 10% or 12.5%)
Pdc = Players dealt cards - The total number of player that were dealt cards (and therefor that anted)
Wa = Win amount - The amount in the pot when you shove (Small blind (.5) + Big blind (1) + antes)
Eq = Equity - The chance you win a showdown against the big blinds expected hands
Bb = Big blinds - The number of big blinds you have left to shove
Ev = Expected value - The number of big blinds you can expect to win on average per shove
Example:
My hand: 72o
My stack: 15 big blinds after ante and posting of small blind
Big blind call range: 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo (this seems really loose to me for a 15 bb shove but the tighter the range the higher the EV due to the fold percentage)
Cp = 25.19% (The above listed hands make up 25.19% of all possible hands)
Fp = 1 - Cp
Fp = 1 - 25.19%
Fp = 74.81%
Ap = 10%
Pdc = 9
Wa = 1.5 + (Ap * Pdc)
Wa = 1.5 + (10% * 9)
Wa = 1.5 + .9
Wa = 2.4
Eq = 28.18% (Run in Equilab)
Bb = 15 (Specified above)
Ev = Fp * Wa + Cp * (Eq * (Wa + Bb) - (1 - Eq) * Bb)
Ev = 74.81% * 2.4 + 25.19% * (28.18% * (2.4 + 15) - (1 - 28.18%) * 15)
Ev = 1.79544 + 25.19% * (28.18% * 17.4 - (71.82%) * 15)
Ev = 1.79544 + 25.19% * (4.90332 - 10.773)
Ev = 1.79544 + 25.19% * -5.86968
Ev = 1.79544 - 1.478572392
Ev =.316867608
So shoving 72o from the small blind with 15bb has a positive EV? This can't be right. What am I doing wrong?