EV calculation help



Apr 9, 2021
Total posts
Hi all,

I was reviewing a hand where I chose not to bet a river, and I was trying to work out if the bet I could have made would have been +EV or not. But I'm not entirely sure of some parts of the calculation, so was looking for some help...

We get to the river in a 5NL 6 max game, there's $0.81 in the pot. I figure villain has 51 combos which could possibly call a bet, 31 of which I beat. So if I bet I think I win 56% of the time.

With the EV calculation being EV = (W% * W$) - (L% * L$), if I bet half pot ($0.40), should W$ = $1.61 (pot + bet + call)? Or do I not count my bet of $0.40 in this? And I assume L$ = $0.40 (just the bet, as the rest of the money is already part of the pot)?

It's possible villain doesn't call off all 31 combos I beat, but for the purposes of this let's assume they do!