This is a discussion on Equity calculation Set vs Flush draw within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hi guys
i have trouble understanding how equity is calculated when Hero makes a set and villian have flush draw
How is villain's equity
Hero has 8 outs to get flush (Td doesn't count cause it gives Full House to Hero)
By the 4/2 rule it gives approx equity 4*8 = 32% to Villain.
But even when Villain gets his flush, hero can improve his hand to Full House (6 outs) or to quads (1 out).
I don't know how to exactly calculate that, but obviously it takes good deal of Villains equity from him.
That's a good question . I understand his flush outs , he has 8 outs on the turn and 7 outs on the river . That gives him 30% to hit the flush . But I don't know how to calculate his odds of hitting runner , runner straight cards . And then you also have to calculate your odds of filling up . I hope somebody can give you a complete answer because I would love to know how that is calculated.
There are 45 unknown cards. On the turn 7 of them give hero 100% equity and villain 0% equity. The rest give varying amounts of equity to hero and villain. We can look at those in terms of how many river cards will win. We group cards into categories that have similar characteristics (flush, no draw, gutshot draw, etc.). It looks like the below.
Turn Other No Flush: 12/45 -- Hero wins 37/44 rivers (non-flush cards)
Then we add the probabilities for each hand we win. 7/45 * 44/44 + 8/45*10/44 ... etc. And that's the total probability to win. Since the denominator is the same, we just multiply the numerators and add all the products. Then we can divide by 45*44.
(7*44 + 8*10 + 12*34 + 6*36 + 12*37) / (45*44) or 1456 / 1980 ~= 73.5% equity for hero and ~= 26.5% for villain.
* These cards offer gutshot straight draws on the river.
* Removes an otherwise safe river card from play on the turn.
I get no respect. When I move all-in, people from other tables call.