Counting Outs

[rigor mortis]

After the flop goes down you can count your hole cards if one or both are higher than any of the flop cards, but not counted if they are lower, As an example, you are dealt J 9 of hearts and the flop is 2h, 10s and 8h, You have a flush draw (9 outs) and three for the Jack, 12 outs in all. Had either card in the flop been higher than your Jack you can only count your flush outs.

 

[MattRyder]

Interesting that you chose that particular example to illustrate your point. You have both a flush draw and an open ended straight draw (OESD).

Your outs include any heart (9 outs) plus any Q or 7 (8 outs less the Qh & 7h which have already been counted, so 6 outs) plus any of 3 remaining Jacks (3 outs) and even a nine is still a possible out (3 outs) since your opponent may just have something like Ace-hi. You have a total of 9+6+3+3 = 21 outs total, or put another way 21 ways to improve over various possible hands that your opponent may have.

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[NWPatriot]

In its simplest interpretation, an "out" improves your hand. This doesn't mean you win the hand, it just means you have improved. Of the 21 outs mentioned by MattRyder (nice work Matt), not all of these are guaranteed winners. If you are really hoping for the flush to hit with J high, you need to be a bit careful as there are currently 3 hearts higher than yours that your opponent could already have since high cards are generally held by players. The 9 and J could come and help your hand, but may end up costing you more chips than making you.

While understanding "outs" is important, I have started to shift my thinking towards "equity" rather than outs. When thinking about equity you have to assess the ranges where you are already behind, the ranges where you are already ahead, and how possible turn/river cards affect both of these. This takes practice, but isn't too hard once you start thinking this way.

Equilab has an "Equity Trainer" in their tools menu. This is a very good way to practice thinking a little differently about where you are at, on the flop.

 

[NWPatriot]

Interesting that you chose that particular example to illustrate your point. You have both a flush draw and an open ended straight draw (OESD).

Your outs include any heart (9 outs) plus any Q or 7 (8 outs less the Qh & 7h which have already been counted, so 6 outs) plus any of 3 remaining Jacks (3 outs) and even a nine is still a possible out (3 outs) since your opponent may just have something like Ace-hi. You have a total of 9+6+3+3 = 21 outs total, or put another way 21 ways to improve over various possible hands that your opponent may have.

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Matt, I like the table you show here, what software is this from? Are the % numbers your equity if you hit that card, and are your opponents ranges considered in making this calculation?

 

[MattRyder]

Matt, I like the table you show here, what software is this from? Are the % numbers your equity if you hit that card, and are your opponents ranges considered in making this calculation?

I used PokerCruncher (MAC software) to generate the "Next Card Heat Map". The percentages are supposed to be "equity" but I'm not sure how meaningful they are since I just ran the Jh9h against any two. Here is the heat map for Jh9h against the top 25% of hands (22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, A2o+, KTo+) with the same flop: