Could over-investing in top pair be the key to my sudden down-turn in profit?

[texasfoldem]

I have couple of posts on here relating to my woes over the past few days. I am not quite sure but I believe that I have spotted an issue.

I was too fixated on the losses I was getting with good hands like sets/ straights/ flushes/ full houses. I think it appears that I may now be going too strong with top pair. There were more losses from top pair than what I realized at first.

I think that top pair does often win. A lot of the time it never gets to showdown anyway because of a fold to a C-bet.

Do you think it could be that I psychologically started putting too much value in top pair? Maybe I had a few good showdowns with just top pair and then just got blind-sided to the fact that it was actually just a run of luck?

 

[This Fish Chums]

Top pair is a devious hand to rely on. I say that because you not only get beat by anything 2-pair or greater, but you also get beat by overpairs and top pair higher kicker. Playing top pair is not a bad thing, but relying heavily on it can definitely cause you to lose chips.

 

[waynaldo009]

I would guess so. I seem to make this mistake a lot.

 

[63burner]

"Finally" getting top pair, not thinking it through.

If you have been patient, waiting for your cards to hit, and you finally hit top pair, emotionally, it's hard not to over-invest.
"It's about time I got my card...", you think to yourself. When you focus on your top pair, you forget about someone having 2 pair, 3 of a kind, the flush draw, straight draw, a pair on the board.

 

[deputat]

I think if you sure you win you will have more luck

 

[mell0404]

I guess so. It seems that this error happens to me a lot

 

[futureballoon]

Definitely. I noticed that after I started playing my top pairs more conservatively against skilled players, it resulted in less variances in my bankroll.

Against unskilled people, you can play those top pairs more aggressively, but if someone is identified as being rather cunning, I would definitely respect their raises and assume they have already calculated that I had top pair which means they got me beat.

My profitability skyrocketed once I started to rely less on top pair once the flop is shown. Try to use it aggressively only if you're on tilt, otherwise I'd say play it conservatively. One bad move can be the difference between ITM and busting out.

 

[DS3]

To be simplistic I think this (like many things in poker) is a question of timing, how tall your stack is and whether you feel comfortable.

No great insight, but I have been trying to play some hands in a specific manner. I see what I am dealt and then put a plan into practice, with a plan B and C if the hand falls apart by the turn and river.

For example, if I have a good stack and receive KQ suited in middle position from time to time I enter a pot and then stick to a plan quite rigidly. If I make top pair on the flop, I'll raise (nothing wild) and then bet the turn and river if no ace arrives and the board remains relatively dry.

Yes, this is no brainer stuff but like many, I can find myself with top pair and then get gun shy (particularly if the top pair was weak-ish, say J J or 10 10). Yet I constantly see other more aggressive players play through a hand confidently with second pair and win. They are convicted and confident, expect to get better hands to fold.

I say this as a TAG player trying to slowly re-shape my game to be looser and a little more aggressive, Naturally you are going to fail at times when someone has made a set holding a low pocket pair for example, but that is nothing you can anticipate.

However, as this post is about playing a top pair, from my perspective I am increasingly aware of shying away from plays and how this can put you into a cautious downward spiral. So I would say play some top pairs with conviction and soft peddle others but don't lose site of the fact top pair is top pair and will often win a hand.

 

[fundiver199]

Top pair can definitely be a tricky hand to play especially out of position. When we bet, we think of it as betting for value, but if we get action over multible streets we often end up in a situation, where we are not totally happy about it. There is no general answer to this as so much depend on the SPR, opponent type, how many players saw the flop, the strength of our top pair, and the board texture.

 

[texasfoldem]

OK, great I was beginning to expect this not to get answered. I will try to reply to all for now. Not actually sure if this really was a problem for me now.

Top pair is a devious hand to rely on. I say that because you not only get beat by anything 2-pair or greater, but you also get beat by overpairs and top pair higher kicker. Playing top pair is not a bad thing, but relying heavily on it can definitely cause you to lose chips.

I think the key there is "rely". I don't think I really rely on it but maybe I was doing it too much. I think usually top pair should win much of the time. I agree it should not be overdone especially when people persist into turn/ river. I have found quite a few people are clearly just multi-barreling me though... and some times it does seem to pay off if I persist too.

I would guess so. I seem to make this mistake a lot.

If you have been patient, waiting for your cards to hit, and you finally hit top pair, emotionally, it's hard not to over-invest.
"It's about time I got my card...", you think to yourself. When you focus on your top pair, you forget about someone having 2 pair, 3 of a kind, the flush draw, straight draw, a pair on the board.

Agreed. I have however though I am being patient though. If it gets too crazy I think sometimes I have fallen foul of this mentality that makes you think: "well surely they can't beat me every time!" Sometimes people do though (almost every time though).

I think if you sure you win you will have more luck

I very rarely rely on luck but it is kind of agreeable when it happens

I guess so. It seems that this error happens to me a lot

Well as long as you consciously rectify it is then it should get better. I think I have occasionally realized that I recognized a problem and then realized again that I had not actually rectified it! Darn...

Definitely. I noticed that after I started playing my top pairs more conservatively against skilled players, it resulted in less variances in my bankroll.

Against unskilled people, you can play those top pairs more aggressively, but if someone is identified as being rather cunning, I would definitely respect their raises and assume they have already calculated that I had top pair which means they got me beat.

My profitability skyrocketed once I started to rely less on top pair once the flop is shown. Try to use it aggressively only if you're on tilt, otherwise I'd say play it conservatively. One bad move can be the difference between ITM and busting out.

The key thing there you are saying is that it depends on the behavior of the player and their HUD stats. I agree. I thought I had ironed this out but I felt, when I looked back at my stats, it seemed to have started again.

 

[texasfoldem]

To be simplistic I think this (like many things in poker) is a question of timing, how tall your stack is and whether you feel comfortable.

No great insight, but I have been trying to play some hands in a specific manner. I see what I am dealt and then put a plan into practice, with a plan B and C if the hand falls apart by the turn and river.

For example, if I have a good stack and receive KQ suited in middle position from time to time I enter a pot and then stick to a plan quite rigidly. If I make top pair on the flop, I'll raise (nothing wild) and then bet the turn and river if no ace arrives and the board remains relatively dry.

Yes, this is no brainer stuff but like many, I can find myself with top pair and then get gun shy (particularly if the top pair was weak-ish, say J J or 10 10). Yet I constantly see other more aggressive players play through a hand confidently with second pair and win. They are convicted and confident, expect to get better hands to fold.

I say this as a TAG player trying to slowly re-shape my game to be looser and a little more aggressive, Naturally you are going to fail at times when someone has made a set holding a low pocket pair for example, but that is nothing you can anticipate.

However, as this post is about playing a top pair, from my perspective I am increasingly aware of shying away from plays and how this can put you into a cautious downward spiral. So I would say play some top pairs with conviction and soft peddle others but don't lose site of the fact top pair is top pair and will often win a hand.

Yes, that sounds like an intelligent way to do things. I think sometimes the "A" part of my TAG plays gets a little overdone. It is also possible that I played too aggressively early on out of position. I guess if you do that too often then you cannot force the player off. I do appreciate the importance of position in situations like that. I think actually top pair is (possibly) one of the major types of hands that benefits from position. If you end up with a much better hand, then position I find is not so important (but obviously still relevant!)

 

[Looord]

Well... sure is

Wrecking my chipstacks today over investing in top pairs and ignoring the likely overpair, but the agression was getting me paid in other spots. Slow and steady onwards to balance

 

[texasfoldem]

Top pair can definitely be a tricky hand to play especially out of position. When we bet, we think of it as betting for value, but if we get action over multible streets we often end up in a situation, where we are not totally happy about it. There is no general answer to this as so much depend on the SPR, opponent type, how many players saw the flop, the strength of our top pair, and the board texture.

Yes, I just mentioned that in the previous post. I think this one of those types of hands where I have really seen the benefit of position. If you are out of position, and then C-bet just after the flop, it does not tend to work so well. You have already invested in it! When you realize they are on to something better you have already lost the cash.

C-betting definitely seems to work better in position. I think when I have top pair I generally do not necessarily want it to get to showdown... if I am C-betting I would much rather it be after making a connection (at the very least some kind of pair (preferably top)) on the flop than just betting on nothing. Seeing as I C-bet about 60-70% of the time it does mean I am sometimes betting on nothing but high card (at least at on the flop anyway).

 

[texasfoldem]

Wrecking my chipstacks today over investing in top pairs and ignoring the likely overpair, but the agression was getting me paid in other spots. Slow and steady onwards to balance

It does seem to get that way at times - losing a lot on stuff because they keep getting something better. Funny actually, talking about aggression: I may have spotted something that may also explain why I keep going down. It is possible I started to call too much rather than raising. If you have put in that raise (i.e. a 3-bet of their 3-bet) then it seems to make the C-Bet look more menacing to calling stations. I think a lot of calling stations do tend to beat you at showdown if you don't raise the aggression enough to "wake" them up and fold before showdown!

 

[Matt_Burns88]

I have couple of posts on here relating to my woes over the past few days. I am not quite sure but I believe that I have spotted an issue.

I was too fixated on the losses I was getting with good hands like sets/ straights/ flushes/ full houses. I think it appears that I may now be going too strong with top pair. There were more losses from top pair than what I realized at first.

I think that top pair does often win. A lot of the time it never gets to showdown anyway because of a fold to a C-bet.

Do you think it could be that I psychologically started putting too much value in top pair? Maybe I had a few good showdowns with just top pair and then just got blind-sided to the fact that it was actually just a run of luck?

Overvaluing top pair is certainly a mistake a lot of player make, especially with Aces or Kings. You feel invincible. You love it when they call your C-bet, ecstatic when they call the turn, then they raise you all-in on the river and you snap call their bluff on the river, only to find that they flopped a set of 5's on the flop and rode the train all the way to value town.

At the end of the day a pair, even top pair is only a pair and only beats high card hands. Position is key; out of position bet small, or even check. In position, you have the advantage of seeing what your opponent does first. Giving you a chance to get away with losing the minimum.