Correct my mistakes? (Trips vs. Full House)

[ventrolloquist]

My stack is 100bb

I'm in the BB holding AQh.
MP raises and it folds to me. I consider 3 betting but call instead.

The flop comes Q86 rainbow.
I check
MP bets 33% pot and I call

Turn is another queen
I check
MP bets about 66% pot which I call again

River is a 2
I bet almost a pot size bet and get reraised (i forget the amount), which I hesitantly call.

Opponent reveals pocket 8's and takes the pot with a full house

What could I have done differently assuming my opponent is playing a balanced strategy? What were my mistakes?

Edit: I suspected I was playing against Qx or a smaller drawn pair (or pocket pair) but didn't see the pocket 8's coming. Maybe I should have 3 bet as I suspect I would have gotten reraised (which would let me know to fold) or would have gotten the opponent to fold.

 

[Jon Poker]

Not much you can really do here. I have no problem with how you played it. KQ or maybe even JQ takes the same line on the river so easy call there. Some people might warrant the check call there on the river but I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't want them to check behind and miss value from such a strong hand so I lead river as well.

Preflop if you do 3bet and they call I think the money goes in anyways.

Just a cold deck situation, not much you can do but call it down and move on. Be happy you were smart enough not to stack off here

 

[pentazepam]

You wrote that the villain plays a balanced strategy. I suppose you by that mean that he can raise a big river bet with some buffs?

This shows you how important reads are in poker still.

Because I know a lot of player that would NEVER raise this paired board without a full house.

It not so much that they don't think they have the best hand with a good queen here (AQ and maybe KQ). It's more about what can they get called with if they raise. If they almost never bluff here: not much (you called with AQ but would you call with KQ or QJ?).

But to repeat myself: since you wrote balanced player I guess you are near the top of your range and if you start folding so strong hands against a raise a good player would bluff you off almost everything. So in this case you have to call.

Most unbalanced players under 100NL will however show you a boat when they raise this river.

Also: when you call the flop and the turn and then donks the river big - that is like you are saying that you have trips or better. If you see it from villains perspective it is of course no reason to raise if they can't beat a good queen since they can't be called by worse.

Against a thinking player I would therefore often check the river. With his turn bet he is saying that he is representing a least a queen if betting for value. If he is bluffing or semi-bluffing he would either bluff again or fold to your bet on the river almost always.

If you check call two streets on this board what value hands do you bet the river with - and call a raise after that? AQ or better - so why does he raise? For value or bluff. His value range beats you. So it's matter how often he bluffs and how big the raise is.

 

[mtl mile end]

Mistake in title - you don't have a set, you have trips - corrected.

 

[Cash2019]

Hello! More information is needed on opponent style. If he is a loose-aggressive opponent, he may have a bluff. It's pretty hard to fold a nut three, especially if your opponent plays in a wide range. If this is a tight opponent, we should be prepared to see a full house.

 

[greatgame230]

in that hand there is nothing that you could do, particularly the only thing that I would have done was to make a 3bet pre-flop that you mentioned having considered but for the rest, there was nothing you could do, I think it was well played and you had bad luck

 

[fundiver199]

Your stop and go play on a blank river is definitely untraditional, and as Doug Polk said in a recent video, if you just never do a stop-and-go, thats fine. A stop-and-go for the record is check-calling on one street and then leading on the next, when nothing changed.

I am not really sure, what your thought process was here? Do you think, he is checking back another QX? Are you trying to induce a bluff-raise? Do you think, AA or KK will call this big donk bet, but would have checked back if checked to? Does he even have AA or KK all that much, when he bet again on the turn?

These are some of the questions, you need to ask yourself. The more traditional lines to take here is either to check-raise the turn, which generate more value from draws, or simply check-call down, which save you money, when he has a boats.

If you think, he is balanced, and/or you were trying to induce a bluff raise, you can not bet-fold on the river. But a lot of players in micro stakes online games are not balanced here. They basically always have the nuts, when they raise on the river, after bets went in on both flop and turn.

And against these kinds of players, maybe you can find a fold, especially if he raised large. Its really tough though. Our hand just feel like to good to fold, and we realistically only lose to 88 or 66. Which unfortunately he had. Kind of a gross cooler at the end of the day.

 

[Tmoney999]

This is a cooler for sure, but that river bet? Very odd play in my opinion, this opponent has shown nothing but strength the whole hand, and on the river you decide to basically gift him your stack. This being said, it was most definitely a cold spot, but you could have reduced damage substantially on the river. I don't understand the river bet into a player that has shown you nothing but strength the whole hand, what were the best possible results, basically one hand KQ mmmaayyybbbeee 2 with the slim possibility of QJ calling you. Cooler hand but re-evaluate how you play the river because that is a very poor way to play it even with such a strong hand, as you are rarely getting action from a hand that you beat.

 

[delirium1129]

If that was ZOOM cash or cash or MTT vs tighly opponent the turn was look like full or another AQ for opp and call was incorrect. If that was MTT or cash vs agro opp that could be any trips + fulls sometimes but rarely some bluffs with JJ/KK and I don't think I want all in and prefer to call opps raises. If that was any games vs very agro oops it could be sick Qs, A8, JJ-99 maybe some 78, 89 and call is correct. I can tell you for sure with 200+bb it's easy fold without any thinking for me in any situation) And anyway river raise was bad you killed all bluffs on the river and called monster hand KQ/QJ was best for you but it's a small amount of monsterhand range.

 

[ventrolloquist]

Thanks for all the great advice guys

Mistake in title - you don't have a set, you have trips - corrected.

Thanks! Oops [emoji1]

Hello! More information is needed on opponent style. If he is a loose-aggressive opponent, he may have a bluff. It's pretty hard to fold a nut three, especially if your opponent plays in a wide range. If this is a tight opponent, we should be prepared to see a full house.

I assumed the opponent to be pretty close to optimal. Not too tight or too loose with the opening ranges. A bit tight postflop but does a reasonable amount of check calls and occasionally cbets.

Your stop and go play on a blank river is definitely untraditional, and as Doug Polk said in a recent video, if you just never do a stop-and-go, thats fine. A stop-and-go for the record is check-calling on one street and then leading on the next, when nothing changed.

I am not really sure, what your thought process was here? Do you think, he is checking back another QX? Are you trying to induce a bluff-raise? Do you think, AA or KK will call this big donk bet, but would have checked back if checked to? Does he even have AA or KK all that much, when he bet again on the turn?

These are some of the questions, you need to ask yourself. The more traditional lines to take here is either to check-raise the turn, which generate more value from draws, or simply check-call down, which save you money, when he has a boats.

If you think, he is balanced, and/or you were trying to induce a bluff raise, you can not bet-fold on the river. But a lot of players in micro stakes online games are not balanced here. They basically always have the nuts, when they raise on the river, after bets went in on both flop and turn.

And against these kinds of players, maybe you can find a fold, especially if he raised large. Its really tough though. Our hand just feel like to good to fold, and we realistically only lose to 88 or 66. Which unfortunately he had. Kind of a gross cooler at the end of the day.

Thanks. I didn't know about stop go plays, learned something new . I normally bet here but was trying to induce a cbet from a preflop aggressor and mask my hand this time around which I thought was working. In hindsite maybe that was silly because if he had held AA or KK I'd be beat and he would still bet, however this wasn't the tightest player and I thought the chances of that weren't that high (maybe another reason why I should have just 3bet)

I'll admit I couldn't interpret the opponents logic for the bet sizing on the flop and the turn. I'm still a long way from fully understanding bet sizing/choices postflop.

 

[kraemer]

His bet sizing should have warned you... maybe.

You check the hand to him and he replies with a bet that is giving you pot odds for many hands. He must be pretty sure about his hand. Otherwise he would probably invest a lot less or bet a lot more to make you fold. But his betsize says "Stay in this hand with me, PLEASE!"...

Think a 3-bet or a check-raise after the flop would have helped you to save some chips here, because they would have revealed that the opponent seems to have a hand of some strength.

 

[TpaEnforcement]

You really couldn't have done anything ,different you just were unlucky. I look at it as gambling, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. I found poker it just not skill you need to have luck so your hands hold up, or you catch your cards, to win pots.

 

[fundiver199]

I'll admit I couldn't interpret the opponents logic for the bet sizing on the flop and the turn. I'm still a long way from fully understanding bet sizing/choices postflop.

His bet sizing is actually very standard and typical for, what many good regulars do today. The small bet on the flop is sometimes called "downbetting". The theory behind it is, that he has the range advantage, which allow him to bet most of his range, if he choose a small sizing. The small sizing force you to call wide to not be run over by bluffs. Even a lot of A high need to continue to this sizing, otherwise you are folding to much.

On the turn he choose a more polarizing size, which allow him to build a big pot with his strongest hands, and get you to fold quite a few marginal holdings, when he is bluffing. He is splitting his range now, and weaker made hands check back, so they can call a river bet, and he also have hands, that check to give up.

The turn sizing is perhaps a little bit of an alarm bell though. Because would he really bet this sizing with AA or KK on such a relatively bad card? To some extend its polarizing to the point, where the only value hand, you beat, is KQ. This is a good reason to not check-raise but just check-call, as you did, and then do the same on the river.

I do think, there is some likelihood, that when you either check-raise the turn or lead the river, you basically only get it in, when you are beat, or maybe sometimes against the same hand.

 

[ventrolloquist]

His bet sizing is actually very standard and typical for, what many good regulars do today. The small bet on the flop is sometimes called "downbetting". The theory behind it is, that he has the range advantage, which allow him to bet most of his range, if he choose a small sizing. The small sizing force you to call wide to not be run over by bluffs. Even a lot of A high need to continue to this sizing, otherwise you are folding to much.

On the turn he choose a more polarizing size, which allow him to build a big pot with his strongest hands, and get you to fold quite a few marginal holdings, when he is bluffing. He is splitting his range now, and weaker made hands check back, so they can call a river bet, and he also have hands, that check to give up.

The turn sizing is perhaps a little bit of an alarm bell though. Because would he really bet this sizing with AA or KK on such a relatively bad card? To some extend its polarizing to the point, where the only value hand, you beat, is KQ. This is a good reason to not check-raise but just check-call, as you did, and then do the same on the river.

I do think, there is some likelihood, that when you either check-raise the turn or lead the river, you basically only get it in, when you are beat, or maybe sometimes against the same hand.

Great, thanks for the explanation . How big should a downbet be? 25% or more like 33%?