Card and Pot odds

B

BrainMasher1

Enthusiast
Hello all,

I use % for my odds.
I have just done a quiz question:

"The flop is 6d, 7d, Ah. Your hole cards are Qd, Kd. The pot is 90. Your opponent bets 30. Can you profitably call in with your draw?"

Now i calculated as followed.
To make the flush i have 9 outs so that is 9x2 18% of hitting a flush.
Now for pot odds i did: 90+30+30(my call) =150 than i did 30/150x100= 20%
This means i need to fold right ?

I selected fold in the quiz, but i they say my answer is wrong.
This is what they say:

"The flop is 6d, 7d, Ah. Your hole cards are Qd, Kd. The pot is 90. Your opponent bets 30. Can you profitably call in with your draw?

• Yes, the call is profitable.

Should not have been checked.

• No, this call will lose you money long term.

Incorrect.

Should not have been checked.

• It’s an equitable call.

The pot is 90. Your opponent bets another 30, so there is now 120 in the pot. It is 30 to call, so we are getting pot odds of 120-30, or simply 4-1 to call. Flush draw needs a pot odds of 4:1 to break even, so this is an equitable call."

Greeting

H

Hermus

Rock Star
All your math checks out. The 2% per out heuristic is not entirely accurate though. With one card to come the probability of hitting a flush are closer to 19%.

In the context of this pot-odds quiz, it's still a fold but only slightly. They probably just rounded the odds to 4:1 in which case you're breaking even.

B

BrainMasher1

Enthusiast
All your math checks out. The 2% per out heuristic is not entirely accurate though. With one card to come the probability of hitting a flush are closer to 19%.

In the context of this pot-odds quiz, it's still a fold but only slightly. They probably just rounded the odds to 4:1 in which case you're breaking even.

The quiz question i posted is from one of the biggest poker sites, so i don't understand why the would "rounded the odd" in a course where they are teaching people how to play poker.
This is the course:

I do know the 2x and 4x are not 100% accurate.
One thing i don't understand is that all websites i found that explane the 2x and 4x rule, never say you need to subtract the amount of out above 8 from you're answer when using the 4x.
Lest say i have 12 outs, with the 4x rule it would be 48%. Witch i to far off the real 45% you have of hitting you're outs. But if you do this: 12outs x 4 = 48 then 48-4(the outs above 8)= 44% witch is way closer to the real answer.
For 20 outs it would be 20x4=80% witch i very far off, but if you do 20x4=80 then 80-12=68% witch again is match closer to the real % of 67,5%

It looks like most site just copy pasted from each other

Greeting

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H

Hermus

Rock Star
I do know the 2x and 4x are not 100% accurate.
One thing i don't understand is that all websites i found that explane the 2x and 4x rule, never say you need to subtract the amount of out above 8 from you're answer when using the 4x.
Lest say i have 12 outs, with the 4x rule it would be 48%. Witch i to far off the real 45% you have of hitting you're outs. But if you do this: 12outs x 4 = 48 then 48-4(the outs above 8)= 44% witch is way closer to the real answer.
For 20 outs it would be 20x4=80% witch i very far off, but if you do 20x4=80 then 80-12=68% witch again is match closer to the real % of 67,5%

It looks like most site just copy pasted from each other

Greeting

Wow that's actually very helpful. Thanks!

H

Hermus

Rock Star
Looking at the page it's a rounding error for sure. They even state that the odds of hitting a flush draw are slightly lower higher than 4:1 xd.

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C

Cinhos_2000

Rock Star
As far as I know poker odds aren't that simple. I might be wrong, but the calculation you did sounds more suitable for a turn decision. Have in mind that you can improve your hand without hitting your draw on the turn, you can make a pair which will give you more outs, you can represent a stronger hand which will give you more fold equity in case you want to bluff the river and you can have a bigger pot in case you hit your draw.

H

Hermus

Rock Star
As far as I know poker odds aren't that simple. I might be wrong, but the calculation you did sounds more suitable for a turn decision. Have in mind that you can improve your hand without hitting your draw on the turn, you can make a pair which will give you more outs, you can represent a stronger hand which will give you more fold equity in case you want to bluff the river and you can have a bigger pot in case you hit your draw.

The question and phrasing of the answer indicate to me that they're just looking for the pot odds and flush draw equity calculations. I do agree though that with implied odds and runner runner 2 pair + possibilities in a real hand scenario calling or reraising is best.

S

Stickyfish

Rising Star
Hello all,

I use % for my odds.
I have just done a quiz question:

"The flop is 6d, 7d, Ah. Your hole cards are Qd, Kd. The pot is 90. Your opponent bets 30. Can you profitably call in with your draw?"

Now i calculated as followed.
To make the flush i have 9 outs so that is 9x2 18% of hitting a flush.
Now for pot odds i did: 90+30+30(my call) =150 than i did 30/150x100= 20%
This means i need to fold right ?

I selected fold in the quiz, but i they say my answer is wrong.
This is what they say:

"The flop is 6d, 7d, Ah. Your hole cards are Qd, Kd. The pot is 90. Your opponent bets 30. Can you profitably call in with your draw?

• Yes, the call is profitable.

Should not have been checked.

• No, this call will lose you money long term.

Incorrect.

Should not have been checked.

• It’s an equitable call.

The pot is 90. Your opponent bets another 30, so there is now 120 in the pot. It is 30 to call, so we are getting pot odds of 120-30, or simply 4-1 to call. Flush draw needs a pot odds of 4:1 to break even, so this is an equitable call."

Greeting
• Equity > Pot Odds
• Pots Odds = 4:1 or 20%
You need at least 20% equity to make this call profitable.
• Equity = 9 outs * 4 = 36%

VikyGia

Rock Star
Hi

When you have a good draw, it is good to wait until the river even more when it is a good draw as a straight or a flush, sometimes it does not always come out with probabilities.

B

BrainMasher1

Enthusiast
As far as I know poker odds aren't that simple. I might be wrong, but the calculation you did sounds more suitable for a turn decision. Have in mind that you can improve your hand without hitting your draw on the turn, you can make a pair which will give you more outs, you can represent a stronger hand which will give you more fold equity in case you want to bluff the river and you can have a bigger pot in case you hit your draw.

I think the quiz question didn't go that far in thinking and was more just about pot odds and flush draw calculations.
But you can indeed improve on the turn card and have to make new calculations.

Greeting

B

BrainMasher1

Enthusiast
• Equity > Pot Odds
• Pots Odds = 4:1 or 20%
You need at least 20% equity to make this call profitable.
• Equity = 9 outs * 4 = 36%

I can be completely wrong here. But as i understand the card odd and pot odds.
I you're on the flop you use the 2x part of the 2x and 4x rule.
Unless you're playing head-up and you're opponent is all-in in witch case you only pay the turn call to see both turn and river cards.
Again maybe i a'm wrong, can someone clear this up?

Greeting

B

BrainMasher1

Enthusiast
When you have a good draw, it is good to wait until the river even more when it is a good draw as a straight or a flush, sometimes it does not always come out with probabilities.

Do you mean you would what to see the river card with you're good draw, and call when the odds are slightly against you.

Greeting

S

Stickyfish

Rising Star

I can be completely wrong here. But as i understand the card odd and pot odds.
I you're on the flop you use the 2x part of the 2x and 4x rule.
Unless you're playing head-up and you're opponent is all-in in witch case you only pay the turn call to see both turn and river cards.
Again maybe i a'm wrong, can someone clear this up?

Greeting
Multiply * 2 on the flop non all in
Multiply * 4 on the flop all in
Multiply * 2 on the turn no matter the situation.

B

BrainMasher1

Enthusiast
Multiply * 2 on the flop non all in
Multiply * 4 on the flop all in
Multiply * 2 on the turn no matter the situation.

Have one more question about fold equity.

Fold equity refers to the equity that a player can gain from a pot if his or her opponent folds (i.e. after they bet or raise).
Betting and raising help to deny your opponent the chance to realise their equity by giving them a chance to fold. In this same manner, poker bluffing and/or semi-bluffing can be profitable in certain instances: the additional equity a player gains in a hand by using fold equity.
Similarly, this is the reason why passive players are often losing players. The only chance they have of winning a pot is by fully realising their hand’s equity and not by means of additional fold equity.
Fold equity = (likelihood opponent folds) x
(gain in equity if opponent folds)

Using the formula above, let’s suppose a player with 30% equity makes a pot-sized bet and has an 80% chance of getting their opponent to fold a marginal made hand.

Their fold equity is then (80%)(70%) = 56%. Therefore, if they bet, their equity increases to 30% (actual equity) + 56% (fold equity) = 86%!

Is it correct that this calculation have been done like the following?
8x7=56 witch should increases the total equity to 86%
I should than compare the 86% to the % of the pot odds, instead of the original 30% right ?

Greeting

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