I know I do, so wanted to ask if you all have a habit of calling the Turn card and folding the River card if you don't hit something to better your hand. I see players do that real often. In my opinion, that a good place to make a small bluff. It's not always a big bluff that will take the pot. About to get off onto something else, sorry. GL you all
It seems to me like, you are asking, if its good to bluff the river, because people tend to overfold. Now first of all if we are trying to play GTO poker, we should always have the right mix of value and bluff, whenever we bet. So if we are trying to do that, we should always have some bluffs on the river but not to many.
Assuming we are not trying to play GTO, then the question is, do people overfold on the river, so that we should bluff more often than the GTO strategy to take advantage of that? And I will say, that this certainly depends on a lot of things. If the river is a complete brick, then a lot of players wont fold any made hand to a third barrel, so we should probably avoid
bluffing rather than overbluffing.
However it also depends, what we are considering to bluff with. If we think, our opponent has a lot of busted draws, and we cant even beat those, it can make sense to make a smallish river bet as a bluff, just to get those busted draws to fold. Like maybe 40% of the pot. But we need to understand, that if we have A high and especially with a good kicker, then we actually beat busted draws, and if they are not folding made
hands, then a river bet is absolutely terrible. So we should just check back and hope to win at showdown with our A high.
Of course opponent type will also matter a lot. Recreational players or "fish" are notorious for not folding anything. So unless we are trying to fold out specifically their busted draws, we should probably not try to bluff them on the river. This is one of the most common themes for learning players especially in online microstakes games. They want to run some fancy multistreet bluff, which they saw Tom Dwan or Phil Ivey do in a televised high stakes game. And then they tilt their balls off, when a fish call them down with bottom pair, because its just 2 dollars, and its the price of nothing