Bluff Frequency

[NWPatriot]

So, here is a chance for everyone to fess up and give up your secrets....

Just kidding.

There are many books and philosophies on bluffing criteria and frequencies. They are not all compatible with each other. I am currently reading Matthew Janda's book "Applications of No-Limit Holdem". The book is very insightful. Punchline is that I do not bluff nearly enough - he recommends a 2:1 bluff:value betting frequency. This seems quite high to me. There is a lot more to it than this, as this is a terrible oversimplification of the book. Of course any bluffing frequency begins with what your opening hand range is.

My question is: do you think it is a fair assumption to assume that an opponents bluff frequency is really about the same as widening your assumptions about your opponents range? Or are these two different pieces of information and unrelated?

 

[xpvictor1]

Sorry do not understand

So, here is a chance for everyone to fess up and give up your secrets....

Just kidding.

There are many books and philosophies on bluffing criteria and frequencies. They are not all compatible with each other. I am currently reading Matthew Janda's book "Applications of No-Limit Holdem". The book is very insightful. Punchline is that I do not bluff nearly enough - he recommends a 2:1 bluff:value betting frequency. This seems quite high to me. There is a lot more to it than this, as this is a terrible oversimplification of the book. Of course any bluffing frequency begins with what your opening hand range is.

My question is: do you think it is a fair assumption to assume that an opponents bluff frequency is really about the same as widening your assumptions about your opponents range? Or are these two different pieces of information and unrelated?

What are you asking? What do mean by opponents range?

 

[NWPatriot]

Opponent Range: At some point you should be assuming your opponent has a "range" that they are playing. For instance - based on how many hands they have played, you might assume your opponent is only playing the top 20% of hands - I call this a 20% range.

Bluff Frequency: every opponent has a frequency that they bluff, from 0.0% of the time (never) to 66% of the time (2/3). This is not necessarily apparent to you, unless you see showdowns and can validate they are bluffing.

I realize my question is not exactly clear. I am wondering how you guys/gals might be figuring out how often your opponents are bluffing. I understand that you may not actually consider it in this way, but might just do this on a case by case basis as a hand is played.

Example: if you have assumed (based on what you have seen) that a specific player is bluffing 25% of the time that he bets (1 bluff for every 3 value bets) and you have observed that this player plays 33% of the available hands (then his range is about 33%):

do you think that his bluffs are within the range you have assumed or are the bluffs in addition to his true range. Using the example above:​

true value range would be ~24% and his value+bluff range is 33% or
true value range is the 33% you have witnessed and his value+bluff range is now ~44%
​

Sorry for the confusing manner i am asking the question. Maybe a more simple question is how do you assess how often a player is bluffing?

 

[Spaceman]

Cant find a better answer except showdowns.

 

[This Fish Chums]

Determining a bluff from a TAGger

A true TAG player will actually be bluffing a good % of the time he plays a hand (ducks the rotten fruit being thrown at him). The reason I say this is, according to TAG you wait for a good and then play it aggressively, even if you don't hit. Well, all those times you don't hit are bluffs. So, yeah, a true TAG will be bluffing a good deal of the time, even if it's only in the form of Blind Steals and C-Bets. Now, that does not mean you can assume a TAGger is bluffing on any given hand because a TAGger is always playing with good cards. Assuming a bluff is always dangerous against a TAGger.

 

[Chalada12]

IF u want to know if your opponent is bluffing, you must play a lot against him , so you know his playing way , know and memorize his moves , that way u can maybe recognize when he s bluffing

 

[petalms2]

IF u want to know if your opponent is bluffing, you must play a lot against him , so you know his playing way , know and memorize his moves , that way u can maybe recognize when he s bluffing

I agree, bluffing is a very sensitive situation in this game. But it's a mandatory evil.

 

[TeUnit]

You can look at the villans fold to cbet,their aggression factor, and their donk bet stats and adjust. For example if the villan has a fold to cbet of 85% you can stab at the pot with any 2.

 

[copycutpaste]

You really have to read the players at the table...are they loose and playing a lot of hands...are they tight and playing few hands...are they a TAG (tight aggressive) player...I don't think there can be a set bluff percentage...but bluffing is a big part of the game...position will help you decide when to bluff...that and player playing style...

 

[030182]

hi i fink so too

привет я Финк так тоже

 

[57noona]

I say bluff when you feel the timing is right.

 

[weirdline]

A theoretically correct bluffing frequency will be related to your bet size, which determines the odds your opponent is getting on his call. If you bet pot, your opponent is getting 2:1 on the call... Your opponent has to win 33% of the time in order to break even. Therefore, in order to make him indifferent to calling with his bluff catchers, you should bluff 33% of the time.

You might have it backwards... 2:1 makes sense as a value to bluff ratio, but not the other way around.

It's impossible to bet large enough that your opponent would have to win more than 50% of the time to break even (without considering rake).

 

[igorsad]

One advice, if you play on low-stakes, never make a bluff without at least a pair. On low stakes you can make only semi-bluff with some flush/straight draws or gutshots or weak pairs. Of course im not talking about c-bet. You could make c-bet without any hands depending on your opponent stats and history. Also remember that on low stakes poker most of opponents rather will call your bluff bet than fold.

 

[FroZeeN89]

Não tem tanta relação, blefe está mais ligado ao estagio do torneio do que basicamente o quanto é preciso blefar, mas no meio pro final são os momentos ideais, pois tem um pessoal que joga mais conservador por causa do dinheiro, e se você jogar conservador nunca vai conseguir puxar o primeiro lugar, tem que ligar o botão ataque e ir para cima, blefando ou não, assim seus oponentes vão ficar bem confusos.