At what point you are conclusively bad?

[lonenlynobita]

I have a question: If I am on a losing streak, how can I tell that I am on a downswing or am I simply bad?

Now, I know the answer to the question is "You need to have a sample big enough so you can have a clear conclusion whether it's due variance or a bad game player."

My issue is what is the definition of "big enough"? My online search has seen numbers from 1k to like 100k. At this point, I feel like people are just throwing big number that sounds right in their brain.

Is there a mathematically sound definition of "big enough"? What about sit n goes or MTT?

 

[SirYivx]

To me, this doesn't matter. If you are getting in all-in situations, and you are ahead, but end up losing time and time again, you are on a bad streak. If you aren't in all-in situations, but you are making the correct plays, and still losing, you are on a bad streak.

As long as you are getting your money in good(you are a favorite to win the hand), but you are still losing, there is no better way you could have played the hand. There are a lot of variables obviously, and every situation is different, but if you are ahead on the flop and turn, and are losing by the river, you are on a bad streak. I am primarily only talking about all-in situations or situations where the money goes all-in by the turn. Like I said, there are many variables. You will know if you are on the wrong side of luck. But, over time, if you keep getting the money in when you are ahead, you will upswing.

 

[FrothyGoodness]

When you're not learning anything is when you are conclusively bad and should just step away until you A. Realize you need to learn more about the game and your techniques or B you realize that poker just isn't your game.

Now you can be on terrible losing streaks and doubt yourself but if you analyze everything and realize you're actually getting it in with good/great hands and just getting terrible run outs then you can't really deem yourself as a bad player just a player with a streak of bad luck...It happens. I've had 6 month swings to where I've been beat so damn bad on a constant basis that I felt I should just quit outright. That's when you keep fighting. Constantly Learn and Evolve your game.

 

[John bruce]

How bad can you be? Any samples? I mean if big stacks can beat you with 9,2 off against your AA all in pre flop. Your in good should win 80% of the time. Thats true in live poker, online is a different beast. My aces have been dealt 4539 times out of 998,798 hands and are only 68% winning rate. My kings are at 71% which is better. Which is insane since I'm super aggressive pre flop with both hands causing a pre flop fold rate of about 20% of the time.

This is some sound advice. Avoid all in until you've seen the river. Play small ball poker. I can't really give you much more advice or the poker police will come. Pay attention. If it's not entertaining then move on. Keep reading those books. :icon_joke

 

[playinggameswithu]

I can get a taste in 2 to 3 hand HU how bad or how good you are. Liberatus played 120k hands across 3 players for a total of 120k hand sample in the HU structure.

I'v heard 5,000 games just to get a taste of how you play in tournament structure though that number seem to be quite limited to its significant figures....why not 5,521 why not another nice round number like 10,000.

 

[5pAce_C0wb0y]

You don't need a massive sample size to see if your a bad player. You do however need to review your hand history and work out whether your making correct +ev decisions. If your making bad decisions you need to adjust your game if your decisions are good and the river is biting your ass it's a down swing.

 

[MattRyder]

That's a question I've struggled with for years.

 

[dregan]

If you play correctly, as always I think that it can be called tilt. Everything else belongs to the polohoy game. Have you changed the style of the game? , then go back to your past style.

 

[rigor mortis]

There is a subtle difference between the two in the decision making process. If the cards are consistently running against you, you play good starting hands, bet, but are not getting your hand improved on the flop or you are in the hand but lose out to a better hand, This is poker and we all suffer from it. If you're not playing premium hands you are probably just bad.