Always Assuming the Villain "Has It": Leak?

[Timmah120]

Hello everyone! This is kind of a hard question to pose...

So, I've noticed my mind doing something on occasion when playing poker online...I'll flop top pair/top kicker on a sketchy board and C-bet. The turn will come, and sometimes it will *sort of* connect with the board, other times, it's a stretch. I'll bet about 1/2 or 2/3 the pot, trying to get value out of my strong hand, and the villain will either call or raise me.

If they call, we'll see a river and I often fold my top/top hand if it doesn't improve and the villain lays out a strong bet. My mind is going "maybe he has two pair, maybe a set, possibly a flush," etc. It's like I'm playing scared almost. I'll even do this if I have a set and there is a possible flush on the board.

This probably comes from all those times I've been sucked out on or someone playing an inferior hand pre-flop calls my raises and gets there by the river. It makes me nervous.

Before you respond, I am the kind of player to put my opponent on ranges...I try to see how often they're limping, calling raises, etc. Some of these guys will play any two all the way to the river...I sit there watching them constantly double up playing trash hands. If I tried that, I'd go broke (lol).

Any insight here is appreciated. Thank you!

 

[DS3]

I think in a similar manner and it is difficult to overcome.

I have deliberately broadened my ranges and have noted in forums before that it feels like the majority of hands backfire - you have to be prepared to get into sloppily played hands and you can regularly lose.

However, I watched a training video which specifically underlined the leak of folding too much which built on the simplest of premises - if you do not fold you still have equity, if you fold you have none. Whenever reasonable (the bet sizing not too outrageous) you need to develop the habit of playing through a hand, as often you will misread what your opponent is playing. You should not always give them credit.

Its up and down. I recently played three very good hands in close succession against two different opponents. They all raised pre-flop, they all bet heavily on the flop and then turn or river. It was par for the course BS you see everyday but I was in the mood to play back with strongish hands.I did not really 'make' any hand but it turned out my high card won each hand and my stack doubled in short order.

The problem being that style of play is frequently going to come up short and mentally I am not often in the mood to play that loosely. Actually, I want to say that stupidly, because in essence this is what it is.

And therein lies the rub to be quite frank. I study the game and feel I play in an intelligent and tight manner. I presume the same of others but it is simply not the case. I have some forum friends who play in a deliberately loose manner - it is calculated and smart. But on top of that you have an awful lot of people who simply play in a wild, gambling manner. My default position is I do not want to descend to a coin flip level of play, which 90% of the time is all it is.

So I try to play in a specific mindset from one tourney to another. In one I will play tight and wait for premium hands. In another I will try to play a broader range opening up some low suited connectors for example and try not to dwell too much when things go wrong. I hope (not sure I yet believe) that this is starting to infuse my game with more 'flow', so to speak.

 

[Timmah120]

Wow, that is a great response! Thank you! You wouldn't perhaps have a link to that training video? Of course, if you're allowed to post it here and it is free (haha).

You offer some great mindsets for me to practice from time to time. I think you are right, though....we often make poor assumptions that everyone thinks and plays in a "correct" manner, and we have to realize that is not true. If it were true, no one would make any money....we'd just trade bankrolls for all eternity.

Again, thank you!

 

[Delfino]

I have the same. We have to fight it. It's not good to Play poker scared.

But you have to judge the level you play. If a good player just calls it's scarry, because good players rarely call.

If weak player calls he might have everything - second pair, weak draw etc. We can't be scared of him. Just value bet your hand and most of the time you will win. Unless stacks are really deep I don't care about pot control that much.

 

[fundiver199]

This is somewhat difficult to answer, because there are certainly spots, where folding top pair is the right thing to do. But that being said if you always fold to aggression on the river, you are probably giving up on EV, and you also open yourself up to getting exploided, if someone is good enough to figure it out.

From the mental point of view try to remember, that you are not calling, because you expect to win. You are calling, because you expect to win often enought. Like 25% of the time, if he bets half pot and 33% of the time, if he bets full pot. So calling and losing does not mean, you did anything wrong. Getting rid of that "feeling stupid" factor is the first step.

The second step is getting a tracker like PT4, especially if you play cash games, and start to analyse your game in a more analytical way. One of the numbers, which a tracker can calculate, is won at showdown after river call, and that number should be somewhere in the middle. If its to low, you are paying off to much, but if its to high, you are to easy to push off, what might often be the best hand.

 

[DS3]

Wow, that is a great response! Thank you! You wouldn't perhaps have a link to that training video? Of course, if you're allowed to post it here and it is free (haha).

You offer some great mindsets for me to practice from time to time. I think you are right, though....we often make poor assumptions that everyone thinks and plays in a "correct" manner, and we have to realize that is not true. If it were true, no one would make any money....we'd just trade bankrolls for all eternity.

Again, thank you!

Timmah 120, thanks in turn for the kind response, it is appreciated.

Here is the tutorial from The Poker Bank by James 'SplitSuit' Sweeny. It is funny how some lessons/tutorials stick, This one did. Obviously all us read this post because it struck a chord and this clip reinforces the need to change up play! Enjoy!

 

[Timmah120]

Thank you very much! This is a very helpful video. I plan to start getting my "feet wet" with a new strategy. His description of how I became such a nitty player in some situations was extremely accurate (haha).