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I find myself having the same problem as the OP. I can run deep and make the money. But somewhere between making the money and making it to the final table, where the payouts really become worthwhile, I always seem to run into some monster stacked player than ends up getting lucky on me. I tend to contribute it to the format of most of the tournaments with unlimited re-entry and long late registration periods. These types of formats have completely changed the game. In the past, I would have avoided rebuy/add on and re-entry tournaments. But now I have no choice. There is pretty much no such thing as freezeout tournaments any more, with the exception of freerolls.
Back in the day, before Black Friday, I used to play tournaments on the Big 3 sites that averaged 3000 - 3500 players and was regularly finishing in the top twenty. Back then you would see gambling type players taking big risks and sometimes they paid off. But when they didn't, that player would be gone. As tournaments progressed, you would see less and less gambling players and more steady poker players in the field. Nowadays though, those gambling players just fire another bullet. In fact more players are willing to make big gambles in less than optimal spots because they know that they can just re-buy back in. I constantly see players calling pre-flop all-ins with ridiculous hands, in hopes of getting lucky and quadrupling or quintupling up. If they lose they re-enter and do it again until it pays off. When it does, the pot they win will often be big enough to send them to the top of the leaderboard, with enough chips that they put average stacked players in positions where they either have to get out of the way or put their entire stack at risk.
I, on the other hand, am the type of player that likes to build my stack steadily, while avoiding putting all my chips at risk if I can help it. When I do get knocked out before making the money, it is often so late into the late registration period that re-entering doesn't make sense for my style of play. I often notice that when one of these reckless players with a monster stack knocks me out, they are playing on their third of fourth entry.
Last night I was playing with a guy that came to the table with 90K in chips, when the table average was about 30K. He was raising to 3x every hand and playing aggressively post-flop. He took a lot of pots down without even seeing a flop. But he lost as many pots as he won. At one point I raised pre and he re-raised. I flopped top pair and check/raised him. He shoved over the top of me with middle pair. He ended up doubling me up, but I was holding my breath the whole time, praying he didn't get lucky and draw out on me. Just when he got down to about 50K in chips, and I was thinking he might have to settle down, he made a call with middle pair, just like he had against me. This time he did get lucky. And just like that, he was back up to 90K in chips again. When he got moved to another table, I looked for him on the leaderboard so I could watch and see if he continued to play the same way and noticed that he was on his third buy-in.
Eventually, I got knocked out after flopping the nut straight against two other players. One of them had flopped a set. The other one had flopped the nut flush draw. I bet a little more than half the pot with my straight. The player with the set shoved for about 5x what was in the pot and we both called. The pot was huge and whoever won it was going to find themselves with a top ten stack as late registration wound down. The flush draw ended up getting there and knocking me out and crippling the other player. I watched the action for a little while before logging out. I looked at the leaderboard out of curiosity and saw that one of the players was on his third entry and the other was on his fourth.
I know, I didn't really give any advice. I'm not sure what advice to give you, or if you really need any. I've always played tight/aggressive poker. Once my tight/aggressive image has been established at a table, I'll take advantage of it and widen my range. This has always worked well for me in the past. After all, skill usually wins out over luck. But given enough chances, luck will eventually pay off. That's what todays game formats do. Unlimited re-buys and re-entries and long late registration periods give luck more chances to pay off. Skill still beats luck. But luck is being given more chances. I don't know what advice I can give anyone to help them overcome that. Just hang in there and keep playing solid poker.
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None of you seem to understand. I'm not locked in here with all of you. All of you are locked in here with ME!
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