Hey all, I'm seeing some statistical patterns that I'm not sure what to make of. I've read quite a few books and I haven't seen these patterns mentioned anywhere. These are all from full ring games.
The first is what I'm guessing is a Tight Passive, something like 13/10/0.5. I see a lot of these and wonder why they're never talked about.
The second type, I don't know what the hell to make out of them. Something like a 17/1/3.0. Are they a loose/tight/loose? My brain hurts.
What are these people?
Final question...Is there a statistical pattern to identify a calling station? If so, what might it be?
Thank you for any help or advice.
Strange numbers indeed. My take is this....
Pay attention to hand sample size. You haven't mentioned how many
hands it was based on. Although VPIP and PFR start to show quite quickly most of the time. 20 hands and the picture starts to form. 40 hands gives a pretty good idea and 8 outta 10 will give you a good representation. 80-100 hands the type is pretty much established. Although very rarely a good player who normally has overall vpip around 18% might show up around 35% in the first 40ish hands, if they are running extreme well with good cards. But its quite seldom.
VPIP and PFR form quickly. The AF stat needs a lot more hands to be honest, otherwise can be misleading. I'd want at least 100 hands to even consider it. Around 200 would be better still.
So 17/1/3 is very irregular. It must be based on a small sample like below 30 hands. But anyway let's go with it. Don't worry too much about the branding (although its to remind yourself) what's important is what the stats tell you. Because 2 loose/passives can have different tendecies but you will see that in numbers.
So first you look at 17. You say to yourself "Hmm...this guy is selective with his hands." "That is pretty much textbook hand selection for ABC player or TAG"
Then you look at the PFR 1. Your thought process continues "Hmm, that is very weird. He raised only 1% of the hands he played" 1% btw is only AA and KK. So.."Hmm..he is selective like like an abc/tag but only raises monsters." "That means he must be limping AK, AQ,QQ, JJ, etc basically all the other 16%"
Then you look at his AF 3. "Hmm..when he gets involved he can get raunchy postflop. We should expect some bets, even raises from him." "Probably everytime he connects he goes for value big time and wants to get out as much as he can." I can tell you that anyone with AF 3 is pretty tough to play against postflop at times. I'd say tag's AF range could be anywhere 3-6. Looks like this guy can throw in a few bluffs as well, but not many. And when he has hit he goes for the kill.
Anyway. I've never seen such stat and must be a small sample. He cannot be a TAG nor ABC player even if the VPIP is solid because he is losing value by not raising the rest of the hands that are (should be say 12%) in his raising range.
13/10/0.5 would be tight-aggresive preflop and passive post flop. A bit nitty as well.
Regarding your question about calling stations, fish (whale). Yes. You will see them by a mile. Already by 30 hand samples. They will have big gaps between vpip and pfr. Not only that but the vpip will be high (unlike the guy with 17 in example above). Something like 40/7 or 30/4. And will have of course low AF. Some something like 40/7/1. There's a stat called Went to Showdown. It shows you how often they go to showdown. However, it is a bit advanced stat and you'd want samples of several hundred hands and above. But you don't really need it for fish. Once you see 40/7, take it that he already has high WTSD (wenttoshowdown) and that you should avoid
bluffing them and just valuing the hell out of them
.
