15bbs ITM

Lugubrious

Lugubrious

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 22, 2019
Total posts
34
Chips
0
Micro stakes MTT we should go ITM i have a solid tight image at the table I pick up A9o in the HJ and jam 15bbs(the table has been kind of active thus far) SB snap calls w AA. It's unlucky but is this too aggro to be pushing?? Being really results oriented, but it would have worked if nobody picked up any real hand thanks in advance GG from UG:star::jd4:
 
5

5KINGLEO5

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 29, 2020
Total posts
353
Chips
0
this is a pretty good push, just out of luck.
 

Attachments

  • мр3-37%.jpg
    мр3-37%.jpg
    277.1 KB · Views: 30
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
13,265
Awards
1
Chips
262
Seems fine enough to me. With 15BB mini-raising and then folding to a jam would also have been an option.
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 11, 2009
Total posts
1,317
Awards
3
Chips
2
5King is right that it's a profitable shove so don't worry about this one.

I also second Fundiver's point. I know you said the table is active, but if you're at a more passive table, people won't shove enough over your min-raises so it will often be better to raise/fold this hand even though it's a +EV shove.
 
elizeuof

elizeuof

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 26, 2015
Total posts
656
Awards
1
Chips
1
I think are fine shove with this hand in HJ, with no others players in the hand, I will fold only if there are actions before me like others allin, many bets...

Generally we can try to bet against stakes similares to ours, they tend to fold more times, and the deep stack tend to call more times with a wide range, you have big chance to double your stack or at least win the antes.
 
Alekxandrovi3

Alekxandrovi3

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 24, 2019
Total posts
361
Chips
20
This is the correct raise. You have a fairly short stack. You had a pretty strong hand.
 
D

DancingNancie

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 20, 2007
Total posts
182
Chips
0
I would have jammed this as well, just ran into a big hand. Bad luck.
 
U

UkoChebuko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 10, 2018
Total posts
381
Chips
0
This can't be true. Mr. Moshman...And the others...

He have 15bb, this is not even close to 10bb. With 10bb maybe someone will call with weaker hand. And you don't need so much FE. With 15bb no one will call with a weaker hand. Must be crazy. Yes KQ, maybe KJs. "Weaker", but "how much weaker"... And you need so much FE. You will have 30% equity and less vs the caller. Ok, break even shove. But without ICM. You are on the bubble, "MTT bubble", micro. You have high chance to go ITM. Let's say you play $5, ITM is $7, you have 80% chance and more to take this $7. Just play slow, use your time, "tanking". What is this? $6...How this shove will win $6? In a long run...We can talk about ATo, A9s, as minimum. We can "only talk". This still is not an "easy shove", "don't think about that".

This HRC calculation up there is not correct, useless. I can tell that without HRC. This is only "in theory", theoretical ranges for call and overcall. And without ICM...
 
Last edited:
U

UkoChebuko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 10, 2018
Total posts
381
Chips
0
For this calculations...A9o is very good hand for shove, but if you have smaller stack. With 15bb shove how often someone will call with A8s and weaker!? Almost never. And this is on the bubble, right!? "we should go ITM". My English is not good, can be misreading. You have a blocker, this is a profit, you can remove let's say 4% needed equity, bucause the blocking effect, the people will fold more,it is more profitable. But in this case even J9s will be so much better, then someone calls. More than this 4% extra equity. T9s better than J9s. And see the image, up there, HRC. Shows different. This just can't be true in reallity.
 
N

nwhitney118

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 24, 2019
Total posts
113
Awards
1
Chips
0
the maths backs up the shove, just unfortunate he had AA. Gotta bear fold equity in mind as well.
 
thehangdude

thehangdude

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Mar 21, 2020
Total posts
745
Awards
4
US
Chips
98
A9o is a little weak for a 15BB shove from HJ. You are probably good 3 times out of 4, but that means you are risking your tournament 20+% of the time.

Between 10BB and 20BB, I like to just min raise the weakest and strongest hands in my range. A9o is about as weak an Ace I'd play from HJ, so 2X raise/fold to shove for me.
 
thehangdude

thehangdude

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Mar 21, 2020
Total posts
745
Awards
4
US
Chips
98
the maths backs up the shove, just unfortunate he had AA. Gotta bear fold equity in mind as well.
Let's play math.

Who would call an all in from HJ?
ATs, AJ+, TT+ seems fair. That totals 86 of the 1326 possible hands, times four players left to act. So over 25% of the time you get called. 1326/(86 X 4) = .259

Against the AT+, TT+ range, A9o is 25%.

So out of 100 hands, you pick up 2.5 in blinds and antes 75 times.
6 times you double up plus blinds and antes for +17.5.
19 times you lose 15 blinds.

(75 X 2.5) + (6 X 17.5) - (19 X 15) = -7.5

So over 100 times, you are negative EV of 7.5BB.
 
U

UkoChebuko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 10, 2018
Total posts
381
Chips
0
Mate, I like your simple math, but this is wrong. The blocker...You forgot about this. Also the combos. There are 82, not 86 . You have 5 pocket pairs (TT+) = 30, 3 offsuited hands = 36, 4 suited = 16. And the blocker is like 25% less Ax combos. There is also an overcall as factor. In theory they must overcall very tight, in reality will be very different. But still this will be profitable shove. By your math...I think..Slightly profitable.

But before the money this will be a bad shove. It is very easy to go ITM in a micro MTT. I can't inderstand , I said, my English is bad. "15bbs ITM" means you are in the money, but "we should go ITM" means you are in the bubble. For me...
 
Last edited:
thehangdude

thehangdude

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Mar 21, 2020
Total posts
745
Awards
4
US
Chips
98
Mate, I like your simple math, but this is wrong. The blocker...You forgot about this. Also the combos. There are 82, not 86 . You have 5 pocket pairs (TT+) = 30, 3 offsuited hands = 36, 4 suited = 16. And the blocker is like 25% less Ax combos. There is also an overcall as factor. In theory they must overcall very tight, in reality will be very different. But still this will be profitable shove. By your math...I think..Slightly profitable.

But before the money this will be a bad shove. It is very easy to go ITM in a micro MTT. I can't inderstand , I said, my English is bad. "15bbs ITM" means you are in the money, but "we should go ITM" means you are in the bubble. For me...
You are right. I did forget the Ace blocker in Hero's hand.
Still, at best this is a marginal shove. I would want slightly better before I shoved from the HJ.
 
Top