My Latest Cash Graph - WTF?

[Stick66]

I just bought HEM and love it. So many stats & filters, etc.

So it led me to pull up this month's cash graph (10/1-10/21). Wow! The first week (2963 hands) looks like I was aggro with high non-showdown winnings and low showdown winnings. Then it flipped when it seems like I nitted up. My non-SD winnings dropped like a rock and my SD winnings went way up. The big drop near the 6100-hand mark was 2 back-to-back bad luck hands that stacked me.

The thing is that I can't put my finger on what I did consciously at the time of the flip-flop, except for mixing in some 25NL with some of my normal 50NL play.

Can anyone offer me some advice based on what they see here? Maybe need more info?

 

[dsvw56]

You might have just been running bad those ~2000 hands. Missing a lot of flops, getting raised off hands, etc . . . It is only 2000 hands after all, I wouldn't be too worried until you start seeing a longer trend.

 

[snowsurfer31]

That's a really detailed graph, how does it get that way? Do you have to record the info that often? Or is it automatic?

 

[bw07507]

Way too small of a sample, but stats like VPIP, PFR, AF, WTSD, W$SD, W$WSF would be helpful.

 

[Stick66]

Way too small of a sample, but stats like VPIP, PFR, AF, WTSD, W$SD, W$WSF would be helpful.

Yeah, I only average about 375 cash hands per day. Here's my 25NL/50NL stats for 10/1-10/21:

 

[Stick66]

Here's the graphs for each stake between 10/1-10/21 separated out:

 

[dsvw56]

yeah, you're obviously just running bad at NL50.

 

[bw07507]

You may be running bad at 50NL, but your VPIP and PFR seem too far apart. If you are playing 16% of hands I'd say your PFR should be atleast 12%.

 

[feitr]

Looks like you are getting into some big pots in nl50 and then folding however. Lots of those drops are like 1/3-1 buy in when you aren't getting to showdown. I'm guessing this aren't bluffs gone wrong, seeing as you probably don't run many bluffs at all given your stats. So you might be getting yourself in some really bad spots...but you shouldn't worry about it over such a small sample. I've had NSD drops of $300+ in 1k hands this month and been positive $$ overall for that period, although your style/game type isn't really conducive to big NSD variance over small samples so that is quite odd.

What you should look at doing however is ramping up your agg a little and cold calling/limping alot less.

 

[Makwa]

Somehow, this makes me feel better.

 

[PlayedYou73]

Thanks for letting us see your graphs. I use PT3 and although I know what my bankroll is at any given time, its very useful to see on a graph the changes in my bankroll over time.

I play predominantly 2.25 9-handed SNG's on full tilt. I initally built a bankroll thru freerolls and have built it up and up since then. My ROI has been consistently positive for months. Last Sunday though...I busted out of every SNG I played, save one with a third place finish. I played a good dozen of them and it cut my bankroll down by 30% at least.

It was totally bizarre... set over set, bad beated, even a full over full house once.

I've done some graphs on my bankroll before and I'm just glad (in a dark way i guess) that extreme drops happen to others as well, even if your playing solid poker. It really sucked because until I played Sunday I was extremely happy with the way I had been playing and the way my bankroll had been increasing.

GL

 

[Stick66]

You may be running bad at 50NL, but your VPIP and PFR seem too far apart. If you are playing 16% of hands I'd say your PFR should be atleast 12%.

Short and to the point, but also just what I was looking for. I agree. I will do some more raising. I guess getting my PFR% to 2/3 of my VP$IP would be a good goal to start with.

Looks like you are getting into some big pots in nl50 and then folding however. Lots of those drops are like 1/3-1 buy in when you aren't getting to showdown. I'm guessing this aren't bluffs gone wrong, seeing as you probably don't run many bluffs at all given your stats. So you might be getting yourself in some really bad spots...but you shouldn't worry about it over such a small sample. I've had NSD drops of $300+ in 1k hands this month and been positive $$ overall for that period, although your style/game type isn't really conducive to big NSD variance over small samples so that is quite odd. Then maybe 3/4.

What you should look at doing however is ramping up your agg a little and cold calling/limping alot less.

Wow. Good call on the big pots part. Yes, I have a bad habit of C-betting too much and then double-barrelling when I shouldn't. Though I haven't checked it, I'll bet I have a high "river folds" stat. I also think I may be getting bluffed by the regs a bit more lately, too. Time to change it up, I guess. Too predictable.

Thanks, dudes. Even more replies still appreciated, though.

 

[Munchrs]

Yea my first thought was that you were commiting a large part of your stack on the flop/turn then folding you more marginal TPTK type hands to bigger river bets.

I would also suggest you look at some of your TP and medium strength hands and see if you have been playing them overly aggressive in terms of the double barreling and c-bets.

 

[Stick66]

Somehow, this makes me feel better.

Glad my difficulties could bring a little sunshine into someone's life.

 

[zachvac]

Yeah, I only average about 375 cash hands per day. Here's my 25NL/50NL stats for 10/1-10/21:

Guess I can't quote attachments.

The W$WSF stat is actually really helpful. Personally I lose a ton at NSD and make up for it in showdown pots. This is because the biggest mistake opponents still make is calling too much. So we make the big money by getting them to pay us off when they hit. As you go up I think that's supposed to change, but at 200nl my NSD winnings are still negative even over long stretches where I'm winning pretty consistently, although they're definitely higher.

I've always said I think these graphs are just a style difference and negative NSD is neither bad nor good imo. For example say you have a set on the river you want paid off. You could bet 1/2 pot and get a call but instead you bet pot and get a fold. You just increased NSD winnings and decreased SD winnings but clearly made a bad bet (assuming the previous is true for his range, not just this one specific instance, that'd be being results oriented).

So I try to ignore that graph and simply focus on the W$WSF stat. This way it doesn't differentiate whether you show a hand down or not, but it does differentiate between showing down a worse hand and winning without showing it down. As a rule of thumb this number should be at least 40% I've heard. It is honestly one of the best indicators I've seen with whether I'm playing and hand-reading well. Now at 50nl they fold less so I'm not sure whether a ~38% would be ok, but if your W$WSF stat is 35% or below then I think that's something to work on.

The biggest thing though in the stats I quoted (which don't show up) is the won money at show down. It leads me to believe that it's just bad luck. You're either being outdrawn more or they're showing up with the top of their range. It's such a small sample and it looks like you're just running bad. I would still look to see if you think you're calling down a bit too light on rivers, as that's the alternative. But in general W$SD% is the thing that suffers when people run bad I believe. This should definitely be above 50% long-term though, typically 52-55%.

 

[Stick66]

Guess I can't quote attachments.

The W$WSF stat is actually really helpful. Personally I lose a ton at NSD and make up for it in showdown pots. This is because the biggest mistake opponents still make is calling too much. So we make the big money by getting them to pay us off when they hit. As you go up I think that's supposed to change, but at 200nl my NSD winnings are still negative even over long stretches where I'm winning pretty consistently, although they're definitely higher.

I've always said I think these graphs are just a style difference and negative NSD is neither bad nor good imo. For example say you have a set on the river you want paid off. You could bet 1/2 pot and get a call but instead you bet pot and get a fold. You just increased NSD winnings and decreased SD winnings but clearly made a bad bet (assuming the previous is true for his range, not just this one specific instance, that'd be being results oriented).

So I try to ignore that graph and simply focus on the W$WSF stat. This way it doesn't differentiate whether you show a hand down or not, but it does differentiate between showing down a worse hand and winning without showing it down. As a rule of thumb this number should be at least 40% I've heard. It is honestly one of the best indicators I've seen with whether I'm playing and hand-reading well. Now at 50nl they fold less so I'm not sure whether a ~38% would be ok, but if your W$WSF stat is 35% or below then I think that's something to work on.

The biggest thing though in the stats I quoted (which don't show up) is the won money at show down. It leads me to believe that it's just bad luck. You're either being outdrawn more or they're showing up with the top of their range. It's such a small sample and it looks like you're just running bad. I would still look to see if you think you're calling down a bit too light on rivers, as that's the alternative. But in general W$SD% is the thing that suffers when people run bad I believe. This should definitely be above 50% long-term though, typically 52-55%.

Good stuff. Thanks.

I've added the W$WSF column to my HEM stats report display. Just for info, my 25NL W$WSF is 36.1 and 50NL is 33.5.

So I guess the way to get that stat up to 38-40 is to see flops with better hands and/or play better post-flop.

 

[zachvac]

So I guess the way to get that stat up to 38-40 is to see flops with better hands and/or play better post-flop.

Don't try to up the stat for upping the stats sake. Basically what 33% tells you is you're basically playing fit or fold a bit too much. Instead of focusing on how good your hand is, think a lot more about the range your opponent has. If you either think you're beating that range or simply that you can fold out that range, you can put money in. That suggests you're not doing enough of the second. The micros almost all the money you won was from making big hands and having idiots pay you off. As you move up there are less and less idiots and you have to start winning more and more small pots. They add up .

 

[dsvw56]

Yeah, never adjust how you play for the sake of having "correct" stats. That's just leads to all sorts of problems. My protege of sorts (zach has actually played with him before, and crushed him from what I heard, so apparently I'm not a good teacher) is very guilty of this at times. He doesn't like to call post flop for the sake of keeping his AF up. So this leads to him folding when he shouldn't or raising when he needs to keep the pot small.

So anyways, my rather long winded point here is don't just start going crazy post flop because you need to get your W$WSF up, but rather fix the actual problem and the stats will correct themselves.

 

[feitr]

yea i was going to ask for your W$WSF and i figured it would be about 35%.

Easiest way to get your W$WSF up is to close your vpip/pfr. The more you are the initiator, the more you get to cbet and the more pots you will win. If you are cold calling then playing fit or fold or limping into multiway pots instead of isolating then you'll lose alot of pots.

You may also not cbet enough and if you do then you are probably making mistakes like cbetting vs loose passive fish that peel the flop wide and then giving up on the turn. There are some situations you either have to c/f or double/triple barrel if you are going to cbet.

And the fact is if you have a vpip/pfr like you do i'd suspect it is close to impossible to have +NSD winnings anyways. So i'd just work on fixing some of those leaks (you really want to be playing something like 16/13 or 15/12 instead of 15/7) and the other things have a way of working themselves out.

If you show your positional vpip as well it would help (or just your ats). You ats% should be through the roof at 25nl/50nl imo since nobody tries to adjust (obv don't do it if you have somebody who can adjust in your blinds, but alot of players will just let you steal all day long). At 50nl FR my ats% was 42, which is ridiculously exploitable but few players know how to exploit it (and i won at like 8.5 BB/100 over ~20k hands so something was obviously working).

 

[Stick66]

OK. Here's some additional stats that have been mentioned:

 

[feitr]

-stop completing the sb all the time
-learn to play positionally

You really don't play position at all. Your vpip in early position should be much much less than on the button.

Here were mine for nl50 FR so you can see how much a difference you should be looking to have in vpip between positions (i stole ALOT from sb so that is the reason my sb vpip is high...i probably also completed sb too much as well). Bear in mind that i'm not saying these are perfect stats by any means (i was probably pretty bad when i played nl50 FR as i hadn't had much cash experience...looks like i was a little tight from CO).

Wow i suck at posting images and lol @ w$sd from bb.

 

[iMaGiN.]

That's rough...

 

[alvinpe]

How did you guys show up that position winnings? I've been looking thoroughly on my HEM But I cant seem to find it.

 

[FunnyBones]

Cash Graph - WTF...

These are quite detail graphs I must say. Thanks for sharing your graphs with us. I could never manage correct stats though. :rock:

 

[Stick66]

People normally get testy when old threads get bumped. But this one is actually good for me since it has reminded me to check a few things. Cheers.