Probably like 2 AM at an active 2/5 table with a super nit image as I haven't been manufacturing any spots and have just been getting an awful run of cards. I'd estimate I probably look like 17/11/3. Hero is effective stack with about $1250.

V is younger TAG I don't remember playing with before but he seems competent. Covers by a lot.

OTTH: 2 limps and Hero raises to $30 from CO with KdKh. V calls in BB, MP limper calls.

Flop (~$90 after rake): JhJc6s
x, x, Hero decides to check this back. Part of this was a gut feeling but as I quickly thought I figured that Vs would have a hard time continuing with much of their limping range unless they have a J. We aren't getting 3 streets of value here unless we improve against a J and there are literally no draws to charge. Plan is to bet turn and river with value sizings. The only turn we don't like is an Ace so it seems like a good candidate for the occasional strong check back. We can induce bets from under pairs and bluffs.

Turn ($90): 8d
V bets $60, MP folds, we call. I don't see what hands he can continue with if we raise here. Maybe T9, but other than that we are probably in trouble.

River ($210): 3s
V bets $120, here's where the biggest decision is. Is it too MUBSY to just call here? I just feel like we aren't getting calls from much unless we are beat. So we just call. Thoughts?

This sequence depends on how the movements of the villains were during the night. Apparently it was played fair. From the flop you took a passive line, you could also have put a reasonable price, for which they could call you some backdoor stairs that maybe looking for improvements on the turn. If your image was 17/11, some villain might think you represent a J in your range. And they will test many medium-high pockets. You are only below A-A. On the turn, your assignment range did not change much. After your call, I think your image was as tightest as possible.
On the river BB's bet is a bit strange. It seems that this villain does not want to give up, knowing that he most likely is. The BB could carry 2 minor pairs. Sometimes you could get some full house. But this is really unlikely, given the bet size chosen on the river.
So I think you can increase the bet on the river. If your assignment range mostly includes hands of value, you can induce many catcher bluffs in rank v, with double pairs that are smaller than yours.
Greetings.

I think the line is okay as played and a check call to the cheapest showdown is the best possible result. You might be behind trips, a boat, or aces. I don't see any worse hands calling if you raise at any point.

Originally Posted by gustav197poker

This sequence depends on how the movements of the villains were during the night. Apparently it was played fair. From the flop you took a passive line, you could also have put a reasonable price, for which they could call you some backdoor stairs that maybe looking for improvements on the turn. If your image was 17/11, some villain might think you represent a J in your range. And they will test many medium-high pockets. You are only below A-A. On the turn, your assignment range did not change much. After your call, I think your image was as tightest as possible.
On the river BB's bet is a bit strange. It seems that this villain does not want to give up, knowing that he most likely is. The BB could carry 2 minor pairs. Sometimes you could get some full house. But this is really unlikely, given the bet size chosen on the river.
So I think you can increase the bet on the river. If your assignment range mostly includes hands of value, you can induce many catcher bluffs in rank v, with double pairs that are smaller than yours.
Greetings.

Your calling range for V sounds a bit optimistic to me. I know I haven't described him in much detail but maybe 28/15/6. Hasn't shown down anything where he was out of line. What two pair hands do you think he calls with if Hero raises river to $375? What would you call with if you were V? The more I think about it the more comfortable I am with the flat call.

I think the benefits of betting here are giving weak players the opportunity to make a mistake by overcalling and not having to show down against Vs bluffs or weaker parts of their range. It also helps with our image and shows we can check back strong hands. But in this case we think V is mostly competent. So the main argument comes down to how wide will they call when we are ahead. I dont think the bet is worth the risk for the rest of the meta game advantages. Have you gotten calls like this on similar run outs?

Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d

Your calling range for V sounds a bit optimistic to me. I know I haven't described him in much detail but maybe 28/15/6. Hasn't shown down anything where he was out of line. What two pair hands do you think he calls with if Hero raises river to $375? What would you call with if you were V? The more I think about it the more comfortable I am with the flat call.

I think the benefits of betting here are giving weak players the opportunity to make a mistake by overcalling and not having to show down against Vs bluffs or weaker parts of their range. It also helps with our image and shows we can check back strong hands. But in this case we think V is mostly competent. So the main argument comes down to how wide will they call when we are ahead. I dont think the bet is worth the risk for the rest of the meta game advantages. Have you gotten calls like this on similar run outs?

Your line was good. Perhaps we can draw better conclusions if we review the range of hands that Villain defended from BB. In this case, we lose with 3 combos of 6-6. 3 combos of 8-8 and with any of the 2 J that are free. In addition we also lose with 6 combos of A-A, for which, we must think if BB would really play in this way this valuable hand. If we think that villain could have limped this range from preflop, then we make the best possible decision.
When villain bets 2/3 on the turn, the question is how high can he do it. If the answer is combos of value, we must think that 6 combos of 9-9, 6 combos T-T and 6 combos of Q-Q are also available. If we believe that villain has at least Q-Q. Maybe we can only call on the river. Otherwise, we have about 45% between lower value and semi bluffs that we can induce to be called.