Originally Posted by frozensprx
Actually for Triple-ups I believe you would have to have a 33% winrate to break even and a slightly higher winrate to be profitable due to rake.
ROI is not the same as ITM win-rate. But you're right: 33% ITM win-rate for triple-ups would be slightly less than break-even (0% ROI) because of the rake.
Assume you buy in for $X, and for ease assume zero rake. If you get ITM you will receive $3X ($2X profit). If you lose you get nothing (-$X profit).
So 15% ROI implies for every $X you buy in for, you expect to PROFIT $0.15X.
Profit/game = [(ITM Amount - BI) x (win-rate)] - [(BI) x (1 - win-rate)]
So for these numbers if you wanted a 15% ROI, here's your necessary win-rate:
0.15xBI = (3BI - BI)x(WR) - (BI)(1 - WR)
0.15xBI = 2xBIxWR - BI +BIxWR
1.15xBI = 3xBIxWR
WR = 1.15/3 = 38.33%
Kinda half-assed that, so anyone feel free to jump in correct me if that's dreadfully off somehow, but I think it's right. An WR or ITM% on triple ups of 100% would be an ROI of 200%, and a WR of ITM% of 33% is an ROI of 0%.
Obviously it changes a little bit with rake. A 10% rake for this same game means your win-rate now has to be 41.66% for a 15% ROI. Rake sucks