AQ facing a tough spot on flop

Villain's stat : VPiP 19 / PR 10
I put him on pocket 7s pocket 10s or a badly played AK. Would ever fold here?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 700/1,400 (175 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: 21,721 (16 bb)
MP: 36,747 (26 bb)
CO: 19,964 (14 bb)
BU: 14,875 (11 bb)
SB: 28,309 (20 bb)
BB (Hero): 37,760 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,150) Hero is BB with Q♦ A♦
1 fold, MP raises to 2,800, 3 players fold, Hero 3-bets to 6,475, MP calls 3,675

Flop: (14,700) A♥ T♣ 7♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 9,659, MP raises to 30,097 (all-in), Hero calls 20,438

Turn: (74,894) T♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (74,894) 7♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 74,894


Showdown:
MP shows J♠ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 29%, Flop: 16%, Turn: 15%, River: 0%)

BB (Hero) shows Q♦ A♦ (two pair, Aces and Tens - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 71%, Flop: 84%, Turn: 85%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) wins 74,894

No of course we are not folding top pair good kicker for 26BB in a 3-bet pot. If he has us beat, it just is, what it is. The only thing, I would do different, is to 3-bet larger. When you go this small, he can profitably call you with any two cards in position, so you are missing out on value and get no fold equity.

Maybe you were thinking about folding to a 4-bet jam and not losing to much, but AQs is not a hand, that should 3-bet a HJ open and then fold to a jam for 26BB. So if he have AK or QQ+, we are getting it in bad anyway, and once again it just is, what it is. You cant win tournaments, if you are always preoccupied with not busting.

I dont understand if you put him pocket 7s, pocket 10s or AK why you pay?
Against that hands you will lose.
I think that you have to put your opponents in a large range and see what is your % to win.
You have to put 28% of final pot to see other cards, so it's a profit call if you have more than 28% to win.

I think Doyle Brunson said something about AQ(any) being a tough starting hand in NLH.

From the little experience I have had I have lost more money playing this hard and lost equally as much not playing it hard.

On that flop, you can make that call. If you can put your opponent on a worse A, then call. If you put your opponent on two-pair or AK, then you have to fold.

fundiver199 said:

No of course we are not folding top pair good kicker for 26BB in a 3-bet pot. If he has us beat, it just is, what it is. The only thing, I would do different, is to 3-bet larger. When you go this small, he can profitably call you with any two cards in position, so you are missing out on value and get no fold equity.

Maybe you were thinking about folding to a 4-bet jam and not losing to much, but AQs is not a hand, that should 3-bet a HJ open and then fold to a jam for 26BB. So if he have AK or QQ+, we are getting it in bad anyway, and once again it just is, what it is. You cant win tournaments, if you are always preoccupied with not busting.

Click to expand...

If we were 50bb deep, would this still be a call regardless of our effective stack size?

If both we and Villain were 50BB deep, it would at least be a bit more of a decision, and it would certainly be reasonable to look at, what reads we have on him, as well as the ICM situation, since its a tournament. However our 3-bet was also to small, and if we 3-bet larger with a 50BB stack, its still pretty difficult to get away from top pair on the flop.

The thing, you need to ask yourself here also, is, what is your plan for the hand? You bet fairly large on the flop setting it up for a turn jam, so apparently your plan was to get it in? Thats a pretty good plan, so why get second thoughts, just because he decide to help you execute it?

You cant read your opponents that perfectly, that you are always good, when they just call and always beat, when they raise. Sometimes he will also have a set or two pair and just call you, and you will value own yourself on the turn.

Hi
Tough call for true.
It could go anyway.
Set, 2 pair or AK.

Good you won but if you would have lost this hand then the same people would have commented otherwise:flute:
Good luck

Seems like a quite simple straight forward hand - not much to review.
Agree with everything fundiver said.

Easy call - I'd even check the flop - cause I like mess with people - to make people think they are ahead when they are not.

The question raised above is a good one though - why make the call if you put your opponent on hand that is beating your hand? Seems your instincts are off with that player.

I did not put opponent on A/K I put him on A - worse than mine, or Kx.
I'm also calling everything after I check back the flop. I'm a fish like that. I think I'm ahead - if I'm not I loose -but I win more than I loose - so my instincts aren't terrible.