When does it stop becoming luck?

Sorry if this is in the wrong forum, didn't really know where to put it, please move if its in the wrong place mods.

I'll start off by explaining about myself. I've recently started playing poker at pokerstars, I've read a few things online, learnt pretty much all the basics and would say I'm not a bad player for someone who hasn't even played for 2 months yet. started with a br of $50 and pushed it up to $65 in that time. I had a low of $15 and a high of $70. I first started playing cash games and was just below break even but seemed to lose more big pots than I won so switched to 9 player tourneys, got bored of them and moved to $1 180 man turbos . Won one and that kept me afloat for a while but the variance was killing me and I was soon down to about $25, a few nice wins kept my poker life alive and I then switched to 6 max $1.50 sit n go's where I've had relative success and moved up to about $40. I then tried my hand at 18 player 6-max $1.50 sit n go's and in my last 10 games (I realise its not a great sample size but it certainly seems to be my best format to play in) I've had 8 money finishes (top 4), 9 final table appearences (got knocked out when aces were cracked) and 4 of my last 5 have ended in a win taking my poker balance to a healthy $65. I realise that even a good player would struggle to get that good a return but I feel I've been playing pretty well and developed a strategy that sees me play tight but hard to put me on a specific hand range without close inspection (I don't think my play needs varying at this point due to the skills of the other players) My question is what sort of bankroll do you think I should build up to till a switch to the $3.50 buy in? It's hard to not switch to the higher buy ins when you feel like your dominating this one (one of the dangers of putting together nice runs). Would 30 buy ins ($105) be enough? Also is the skill level likely to be significantly difference or will I still be playing quite a few fish?

I think 30 bi seems a little thin -- 6 losses and you've plowed thru 20% of your roll. If you're that curious, maybe something like playing 3 at the higher level, and if you don't at least break even, you drop down until you build back up to $105. This way you're getting experience (and taking notes on players, right) for when you do move up fully, and only risking 10%.

Personally, I don't think I'm disciplined enough for something like that (I'd be likely to keep taking "one more shot" to try to chase the losses).

The reccomended bankroll managmenent for sngs is 100 buyins so $350 as variance is so high in them but at such a low level 50 buyins should be fine and drop down when you have like 30 buyins.

Shufflin said:

I think 30 bi seems a little thin -- 6 losses and you've plowed thru 20% of your roll. If you're that curious, maybe something like playing 3 at the higher level, and if you don't at least break even, you drop down until you build back up to $105. This way you're getting experience (and taking notes on players, right) for when you do move up fully, and only risking 10%.

Personally, I don't think I'm disciplined enough for something like that (I'd be likely to keep taking "one more shot" to try to chase the losses).

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I was thinking when I drop back down to below $70 I move back down to the $1.50 buy-in and build back up to $105 and try again. I don't really take many notes either, just try and keep track in my head, seems to be serving me fairly well, over $80 now and at an all time high BR.

papatango123 said:

The reccomended bankroll managmenent for sngs is 100 buyins so $350 as variance is so high in them but at such a low level 50 buyins should be fine and drop down when you have like 30 buyins.

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100 buy ins? I could see it being that at 180 man turbos but surely not for 18 man?

start taking notes now.then you can define there range from postion etc.Your mind will forget and "misremeber"