NLHE MTT: River decision 3bet defence pot EP vs MP with top 2 pairs

Live MTT, Early stage blind 100/200

UTG+1 (Hero): stack around 35000,tight image
LJ (Villain): Stack around 25000 Competent player, shown KQs 3bet in MP against EP open, perhaps aggressive 3bettor

Hero raised to 600 with A♣Q♣, Villain raised to 2200 and all folded to hero who called.

Flop: (4700, 2 players)
Q♦8♣5♠

Hero checked. Villain bet 1700 and hero called.

Turn: (8100, 2 players)
J♦

Hero checked. Villain bet 3800 and hero called

River: (15700, 2 players)
A♦

Hero ?

Would you lead out this river or check call?

First, well played IMO.

This all comes down to math and what we think villain's range is comprised of. Now, you had some information that he may be 3-betting pretty wide, so, I'll go with a a big range that may not be quite big enough, but....

QQ+,AQs+,ATs,A5s-A4s,KJs,87s,76s,AQo+

At some point in this hand (though it's a little harder since he keeps the initiative) we need to remove some of his range. hands like 87s I don't think are going to fire flop, and fire turn, so....

QQ+,AQs+,76s,AQo+ (I removed ~30% of his pre-flop range here)

There's $19,700 in the middle, effective behind is $17,500, with a $200BB, so I think all options are on the table. I've run the math through several simulations using spreadsheets I have created and find that the difference is fairly negligible. The math supports greater positive EV by leading this whole hand, however, that's where math breaks down as this is a clear check/call, check/call, on the flop and turn.

I think as played is by far the superior line, especially in a MTT. So, here are the numbers (also, these numbers are using standard hypothetical bet sizes):


(x/c flop +2.84K), (x/c turn +4.36K), (x/call river +23.36K), (bet/call, +21.46K), (x/all-in/c, +25.71K), (x/x +15.56K)

Leading this whole hand results in slightly higher EV's on the flop and on the turn, but river play is virtually identical.

Personally, I think I check call this river nearly 100% of the time. Anytime we change the flow of the hand (i.e. donk betting on this river), we want a card that changes the board texture. Which, there aren't too may off in this hand and the is not one of them anyway.

So yeah, check/call river and make the above numbers.

I check call AQs, not problem!

Just for someone interested in this hand. Villain checked down with AK.

This is always a check call spot for me. He doesn’t have a lot of hands that beat you but I don’t think leading and folding is the correct play. The hands he could most likely have are KQ, QJ that you can get some value in. The rest of his hands will have you beat imo.

I like leading the river personally. I can't see a hand that villain is going to barrel a 3rd time on the river. Villain is trying to rep AA or KK. Before you posted the hand, I thought AK and KK made the most sense. You might get a small bet called by KK, but AK will probably be in check/call mode as they bluffed their way into solid showdown value...but probably shouldn't bet for value on such a scary board with so many 2 pair combos out there.

As for hands that beat you, AA, QQ, JJ, and weird stuff like 87 suited once in a great while. AA and QQ are blocked by you and the board...and if he has 87 suited or JJ, well that's just tough luck(especially 87). I also doubt those hands are jamming on a raise anyway as there's too many possibilities out there that beat those hands.

There is no need to lead river at all if you played the check/call line two streets,even with check-check river you dont lose your ev I say you save it.cause leading river on such boards gonna make you more troubles then wins.

Interesting hand. I dont really see any point in leading the river with a little more than a pot sized bet left. If we jam, we probably only get action, when we are beat, and if we lead for like a third of the pot and get jammed on, we are in a sick spot for our tournament life. Check-calling down seem like the perfect approach here. Sure leading for a third of the pot would have worked against AK, but that is results oriented thinking.

I analyzed this kind of spots a lot and my conclusion is shove the river. Since you are check calling with this hand no matter what size he bets, you can't worry about being called by stronger hands, because you will call and lose and against those hands anyway. So, what you need to think is how you get value against weaker two pairs and bluff catchers. If you check, most of those hands will check back, so the only option is to lead the river.

liuouhgkres said:

I analyzed this kind of spots a lot and my conclusion is shove the river. Since you are check calling with this hand no matter what size he bets, you can't worry about being called by stronger hands, because you will call and lose and against those hands anyway. So, what you need to think is how you get value against weaker two pairs and bluff catchers. If you check, most of those hands will check back, so the only option is to lead the river.

Click to expand...

But is AK really calling a shove for 125BB and his tournament life on this kind of board? For me that would be a snap fold in the Villains shoes. And what two pair does he even have, that play like this? Does QJ 3-bet an EP open, probably not. And why would AJ bet the turn, when it picked up showdown value? Its obviously very opponent dependent, and I am not saying, you are wrong, but without info I dont see much value in shoving here.

You could have bet 1/4 pot on the river. Anything higher than that, he is probably folding or he has you anyway. Really depends on your read on him anyway. I guess by checking the river, he could try to bluff. I think that third diamond killed your action though.

The first thing that comes to mind: don't dig a hole for another ... From the side of the check-call, the flop and turn look like a fish trap. But after the river, your two toppairs do not look so menacing. Most likely the trap slammed from the outside. If the villain has a set, then the role of the victim was prepared for you from above. But the possible straight, flush and even straight flush are the work of your hands. Of course, now you will call any bet in reasonable aisles and pray to heaven that the villain will show you pocket kings or just turn out to be a maniac. A raise of 3/4 pot after the flop would be easier and cheaper.


:sheep: