$Freeroll NLHE STT: Yay or Nay call

120/240 NL- Holdem - 4 players


Hero (BB): 12.5 BB
CO: 4 BB
BTN: 8 BB
SB: 12.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♣ 7♣

fold, BTN calls, SB folds, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 2♣ 6♣ 5s
HERO bets 2 BB, BTN raises 7 BB and is all-in, HERO calls

I got this set up the best I could. Is this play YAY or NAY?

Good play from here. Your semi bluff is good and your call is a force one.

OK the flop has given hero a flush draw and villain has shoved over the top of the semi bluff. Is there any likelihood that Q7 is ahead at this point? Probably not. Hero will hit flush about 36% of the time and is probably about a 55% favourite against most of villains range. Villain could have been slow playing a monster pre flop and a small PP is possible but you did what you had to do here.

Getting in all our stack of around 10 bb is a very good play on this board. So it is a "YAY" from me too.

Won't I hit the flush more than 36% of the time?

No you are only 35% (sorry got it slightly wrong in my first post) to hit your flush by the river. There are 9 cards that give you the flush and, at the moment, 47 cards that you don't know. So you have two chances to hit a 9/47 then a 9/46 chance which calculates at 35%. Once the turn is dealt you are down to about 19%.

Check out the following:

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs

This gives a lot of useful info but is just one of many.

Not sure if you know this or not but when you are dealt suited cards you will only make a flush by the river 6.3% of the time.

If we give him something like TPTK and backdoor spades, then you're actually a favourite here so i think you're definitely good to get your money in.

you have two over cards and flush-draw! normally played!

In freerol only check flop, villain never fold on your bet, he always can call with any overcards, in this situation it is better to see turn..