$5.50 NLHE MTT: 18BB spot with TT, JJ

I ran into this spot two days in a row so I have to ask about it.


Final 2 tables of 5.50 1k tournament on WPN.
UTG (covers me) opens 2.1BB.


Folds to me (18BB) in late position with TT. Villain (17/14) has 96% fold to 3bet stat (25 out of 26). My instinct is here is jam, but afterwards I think, why not 3bet small and fold since he likely only calls with bigger pairs and AK. If I made it 5.5BB I would still be left with just over 10BB which would allow me to continue to ladder up and also leaves me hope.


This may be super nitty but with that fold to 3b stat it just seems like the correct play and I could probably do it as a bluff also. Villain is also the big stack at the table and could be opening a bit lighter than usual to put pressure on everyone else. I seriously had this situation two days in a row and ran into KK and AA both times. It seemed so obvious afterwards, but folding pairs is hard. I suppose I can try to put it into ICMizer.

Anything but a shove is not a thing. You are making a huge mistake by doing anything else.
You're thinking of "if he only calls better“ is incorrect, first of all you have ton of fold equity. Secondly he will still call 99+ AQ+ which we are doing okay vs that.
By 3betting small you just let him realize his equity with all his range. If i am him im just calling all my A5s type of hands and looking to peal an Ace. He has 96% fold to 3b? Great, pick up the dead money in the pot instead of making unprofitable nitty plays which will get you nowhere.

MaSSive_1 said:

He has 96% fold to 3b? Great, pick up the dead money in the pot instead of making unprofitable nitty plays which will get you nowhere.

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+1 Maximize you FE.

Just shove preflop. If you want to 3bet/fold any hand in this spot, better do it with hands like KQ.

MaSSive_1 said:

Anything but a shove is not a thing. You are making a huge mistake by doing anything else.
You're thinking of "if he only calls better“ is incorrect, first of all you have ton of fold equity. Secondly he will still call 99+ AQ+ which we are doing okay vs

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So I agree that 3bet is the worst option. I think I was blinded by/ overvalued the fold to 3bet stat. I noted in my original post that this was mostly influenced by the results. I put it into ICMizer and the shoving range here is super super wide. It's something that I know I need to study more so that I can make easier decisions here.

In this spot I will prefer to just call and see what happens on the flop, plus you have position on him.