$400 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: FOLDING AK ON DRY BOARD

CONTEXT:

Tournament is a $400 buy in live tournament (over 1000 entrants).

Starting stack is 25k.

Hero has 75k in chips and blinds are currently 800-1600.

Hero's old table broke and has been at new table for about 30 minutes, but only a few hands have been played.

Hero has not observed villain play a hand yet, but assumes he is TAG.

HAND PRE-FLOP:

Hero is dealt AhKc on the button.

Action is folded around to him.

Hero raises to 7000.

Villain (stack size around 100k) is on small blind and reraises to 14000.

BB folds.

Hero flat calls.

FLOP:

Flop comes As 10h 4s

Villain tanks for a little bit then checks.

Hero bets 14k.

Villain tanks then raises to 28k.



I think my only move is to shove here.

Can I ever fold TPTK on this board with my stack size?



I created an account just to ask this. Would really only appreciate input from players who play similar stakes.

1) IMHO the preflop raise on the BTN is too big, T$3500-T$4000 will get the same results
2) Villain min-raises you preflop then check/minraises you on the flop, without any significant reads otherwise I'm folding here. Your call prefop limits your range to midPP/AK/AQ and Villain clearly isn't afraid of the Ace on the flop.

I also folded in cash giveaway tournament with my AKs

$400 It is greater than all my bankroll, but if I was going to fold, other best chance would come.

Jillychemung said:

1) IMHO the preflop raise on the BTN is too big, T$3500-T$4000 will get the same results
2) Villain min-raises you preflop then check/minraises you on the flop, without any significant reads otherwise I'm folding here. Your call prefop limits your range to midPP/AK/AQ and Villain clearly isn't afraid of the Ace on the flop.

Click to expand...

Yes very true, but I am on the button, and am getting over 3:1 on a call so I think my range can be a bit wider than that. i.e. high suited connectors.

Its an extremely tough fold, because only two hands beat me. In a cash game I would find a fold way easier.

I have to agree with Jilly here the sizing pre is definately larger than I'd be using. I'd like to see button size raising at most 5k.

As played the call in position is a fine play and the lower variance route. 4 betting is still an option and folding is out of the question at this stage.

Making some assumptions on table let's do some math and think it thru. 800-1600 prob 200 ante? So preflop the pot is 4400, you make it 7k villian goes 14k, you call making the estimated pot 31.6k. leaving you with approx 61k and villian with 86k.

We can estimate a TAG from this position to make this reraise from the SB with maybe 88+ AK maybe AQ depending on opponent and maybe A10s+.... Very player dependent but just as a general range analysis.

The flop I wouldn't exactly call dry. There are straight cards for Broadway hands and two spades... Once villian checks we need to think of what hands the villian would make this line with ... Plenty of the pairs could easily check this flop BC it contains an ace (including what is now sets)... I'm not convinced a TAG would check the combos with an ace they 3bet with preflop but it's always in the realm of possibilities.

Given this analysis and thought we are beating a lot I am betting as a default here. Now the sizing... You bet 14k into the 31.6k making the pot 45.6. I'm conflicted here because of the coordination I default to a larger size to price out drawing hands and to narrow the villains range. I could be wrong here but I'd like to see 20k. No more than that tho given stack sizes.

Once villian clicks it back we have a tough spot.. the pot is now 73.6k. Villain has 58k remaining and we have 47k... If we call we have 33k remaining.

I'm really inclined to think villain is tempting us to get our stack in here with an ace. Now what would they do this with.... 1010 for sure makes sense. As does A10 if this villain would play that way pre. 44 Meh not imo... AK maybe AQ less likely yet and I doubt AJ is making this move from a TAG but I've seen crazier.

So what to do, if we call and a blank turn hits what's are move if villain barrels? We are gonna be in even a tougher apot yet and prob fold. To shove I think we are walking into a trap. But it wouldn't be the first time I as wrong and got bluffed. I'm personally inclined to fold here and find a better spot without any better info or read on the villain. This play just screams strength and no fear of the ace.

Side note I did not include the one combo of AA but it's also def possible for this line from Villain.

Weird play pre ( open it smaller this big PFR indicates you aren't happy to play a decent postflopgame even on the button) also as played I call checkraise to keep bluffs in (Strange but strong looking line, but like previous Stated not 2 Many combo's that can have you beat, but he actually does try to rep like a set or 2p , but this not Always means he Has it) , I prolly check this flop behind as I dont see 2 Many FD in villains pf 3betting range and then not Many scarecards left, so way ahead/ behind spot and almost never fold on later streets

IceJelly said:

i.e. high suited connectors.

Click to expand...

also not extremely much combo's 2 be worried about also like other statement it is actually pretty dry flop at least for me

Agree with rest