$40 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Horrible Hand - Shove or Flat?

1st hand in a local 6 max MTT.

500/1000/500 - Stacks 100,000.

Cut off opens to 2500, button flats, we flat the SB with

Flop

We check, cut off cbets for 3500, button flats. We check raise to 10,000. Cut off makes it 32k, button calls. We call.

Turn is

Cut off open shoves, button calls. We??

I often notice such situations ... the best nuts beat another nuts

We need to call around 65K to win the pot of about 235K at the moment. So we need to win about 21% of the time. With the 9 flush cards and 4 total 7 and 8's for the boat we have 13 outs to hit our hand. So with 29% we are good for a call but there is a problem. Do we really have all the outs? One of them may have the better flush draw here and I think one of them may have a set already so we maybe drawing dead looking at what sets are available. I don't think it would be wise to call here and I would fold the hand.

Ok just checked the spoiler and we were in trouble here. We had about 19% equity in the hand and folding would have been correct I believe.

ken nielson said:

We need to call around 65K to win the pot of about 235K at the moment. So we need to win about 21% of the time. With the 9 flush cards and 4 total 7 and 8's for the boat we have 13 outs to hit our hand. So with 29% we are good for a call but there is a problem. Do we really have all the outs? One of them may have the better flush draw here and I think one of them may have a set already so we maybe drawing dead looking at what sets are available. I don't think it would be wise to call here and I would fold the hand.

Ok just checked the spoiler and we were in trouble here. We had about 19% equity in the hand and folding would have been correct I believe.

Click to expand...

Personally, don't think we should count 7s and 8s as outs because it looks like at least one opponent has a set (most likely set of 9s).

As for the hand, raise on the flop is too small IMO. Pot size on the flop is 8500 and after a bet and a call it goes up to 15K, and when you decide to raise it to 10K it will never, ever make anyone fold there, ever. If you had set of A for example, then a smaller raise is OK because it would be about extracting more value and not chasing anyone off their hands.

This way all draws will call (possibly better draws then yours). The biggest problem of your raise is that it doesn't narrow opponents ranges. On the turn, it is possible that CO is shoving with something like AX of clubs, but when he gets called, I don't see hands that are worse then yours. I would make a sigh fold and bust myself for not playing it a bit better on the flop (calling would be better then such a small raise).

I like a check call on the flop, there is danger inflating the pot OOP here. Both villains have range advantage for this flop so you have next to no FE. When you likely miss the turn you are in a bit of pain.

HarryWitham said:

1st hand in a local 6 max MTT.

500/1000/500 - Stacks 100,000.

Cut off opens to 2500, button flats, we flat the SB with

Flop

We check, cut off cbets for 3500, button flats. We check raise to 10,000. Cut off makes it 32k, button calls. We call.

Turn is

Cut off open shoves, button calls. We??

Spoiler

We call, Cut off has 88, button J10. We brick the river.

Click to expand...

Hello,


I like the way you played this hand. I will call his jam. Two pair with many river cards that will improve our hand. To much equity and showdown value to fold here.

I would assume that this is a rebuy tournament? It makes a big difference here on whether it is or it isnt and if you are willing to rebuy or not. I mention that because many of possible hands you are going against will be flipping with you. Two larger spades you are flipping with and AK with K of spades you are flipping with. Since will be flipping or 60/40 ish a lot here I think the rebuy decision comes into play.

As far as the hand itself, pre flop is play makes sense. On the flop, I really dont like check raising here since we are out of position but if we are going to do it the raise should be larger. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 15k. As played with a raise to 10k and then a re raise to 32k I am not liking my hand so much. I would try to quickly come up with a hand that I am way ahead of that villain would be doing this with and I dont think there is one. That leads me to the flipping that I mentioned earlier or they have two pair or a set. I dont think I would ever just call the raise but would fold or jam over. Of those two options I like fold much more due to the fact that I dont think we are ever crushing villain and there are plenty of times we are a fairly big dog here.