$33 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: AK 3bet pot - Top pair vs 3barrel near the bubble

vox1er said:

Villian Stats (Enkhmaa19) (VPIP/PFR/AF): 16/13/5,
and 3bet - 9.5%

Hi everyone, I can't decide what to do on the river, please help.

888Poker, $30 + $3 - Hold'em No Limit - 350/700 (85 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

jovemfranke (UTG): 10,088 (14 bb)
CVriserio (UTG+1): 34,730 (50 bb)
MHighton (MP): 11,050 (16 bb)
Voxler (MP+1): 50,541 (72 bb) - HERO
danbroon (LP): 42,244 (60 bb)
Povelitel1 (CO): 22,621 (32 bb)
Enkhmaa19 (BU): 82,765 (118 bb) - VILLAIN
TjisWar99 (SB): 16,711 (24 bb)
bluffing420s (BB): 11,634 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,815) Hero (Voxler) is MP+1 with K♣ A♥
3 players fold, Voxler (MP+1) raises to 1,400, 2 players fold, Enkhmaa19 (BU) 3-bets to 5,600, 2 players fold, Voxler (MP+1) calls 4,200

Flop: (13,015) 5♦ A♠ 3♦ (2 players)
Voxler (MP+1) checks, Enkhmaa19 (BU) bets 4,294, Voxler (MP+1) calls 4,294

Turn: (21,603) Q♣ (2 players)
Voxler (MP+1) checks, Enkhmaa19 (BU) bets 9,557, Voxler (MP+1) calls 9,557

River: (40,717) 3♣ (2 players)
Voxler (MP+1) checks, Enkhmaa19 (BU) bets 14,136, Voxler (MP+1) calls 14,136

I think that here I need to do a fold, because only AK doesn't beat me from his range.
I think that on turn, after the second barrel, his range will be : AQ, AK, QQ, AA.
Your thoughts?
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Total pot: 68,989

Showdown:
Enkhmaa19 (BU) shows Q♥ A♦ (two pair, Aces and Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 25%, Flop: 17%, Turn: 93%, River: 100%)

Voxler (MP+1) mucks K♣ A♥ (two pair, Aces and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 75%, Flop: 83%, Turn: 7%, River: 0%)

Enkhmaa19 (BU) wins 68,989

Click to expand...

ssbn743 said:

Pre
We need to be opening bigger here pre-flop. This is a pretty interesting structure as well, with the ante actually being more than the BB - so we def need to be pushing our sizes higher based on that fact alone.

But the biggest factor is that we have lot's a chips and can absorb more risk. With your stack, I would normally being going to 2.75x with all of my opens, and with this structure, could easily see a full 3x.

We should NEVER be flatting a 3-bet here. AKs, we can occasionally flat to help balance. I won't go into range geometry here, but AKo is always a 4-bet. With our stack, I'd just click it up to $13-$15K.

As played, we're putting ourselves in a tough spot out of position to the aggressor - def not where we want to be with this hand.

Flop
As played - check 100% like you did. However, we should be here like this.

The check/call is fine as played.

Rest of Hand
As played I think I'm ok with just calling down. X/R on the flop isn't a very good idea, and the turn card kind of sucks - and then the board pairs on river. So, yeah - as played call down...

However, if we had 4-bet pre-flop, we would have done much better for ourselves.

Imagine we 4-bet to $14K and villain calls (which he shouldn't with AQo but...). The pot would be $30K and we'd have $35K back with top/top- easy peasy.

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