£220 NLHE MTT: Flopped 2nd nut straight in 4-way limped pot very wet board

£220 NLHE MTT: Flopped 2nd nut straight in 4-way limped pot very wet board

Large field live MTT > 800 entries, 77 players remaining, ITM, no significant pay jump, 9max, big blind ante in play

UTG: ~20BB, TAG but unbalance open limp ranges from EP likely 88+
BTN: ~30BB, more aggressive than UTG, more active but not out of line
SB: >60BB, very solid TAG
BB (Hero): 8BB after posting blind, tight image, only playing shove/fold game in last 2 hours

UTG open limped, BTN called, SB completed, BB with Q♠8♣ checked

Flop: 5BB, 4 players

J♥T♦9♦

SB checked, BB checked, UTG bet 1.2BB, BTN raised to 2.5 BB, SB folded, Hero ??

Questions:
1. What do you think BTN min-raise with on the flop?
2. Do you think I should just jam on the flop?

Given this very wet board, I expect UTG only cbet with AdAx, QQ and 99-TT.

Also I would expect BTN raised with TT-QQ preflop so set over set fairly unlikely.
He may also observed UTG unbalanced open limp pattern so it is inviting UTG to push over.

Did I read this right, we have 8bb pre so 7bb heading to the flop and there's 5bb out there?

I don't HATE checking flop but you could also just open jam and literally always get it in against a Jx hand, two pair, and plenty of draws that we perform great against.

As played, we check, someone bets small, someone clicks it back... and we have well under a pot size raise behind - what exactly are we thinking about?

I get that you are asking what we think BTN has, but his range could be any number of things. He faces a 25% pot bet in a hugely multiway flop from a guy who limped in pre. He basically min raises.

You say they are TAGish and what not and maybe you didn't mean that they are GOOD TAG but rather BAD TAG but regardless they are playing poorly almost no matter what each of them has.

I can only assume that we x/jammed and lost this hand because I don't see why you'd post it otherwise lol. But yeah idk, BTN could have anything from like a QJ, KJ, AJ type hand to a set to a random combo draw that he has no clue what to do with. None of those hands make sense to minraise with but there you go.

If you got the money in here then you didn't mess up lol. But I DO prefer just open jamming flop ourselves. If it's a rainbow flop I can get much more behind a check/jam instead.

I guess you can just call here, and if there is no pair on turn, or flush dro card, check raise, or even donk 80-120% of pot, because if we see here the 3bet, usually we'll see the call or push against our 4bet

In this spot it doesn't even matter what is button's range, we should jam 100% of the time. Very easy decision.

Actually the more interesting decision is whether to open jam or check-raise jam. When we jam ourselves we protect ourselves from flush draws and maybe some pair+straight draw hands, so it is at least a viable option. But I honestly prefer check raise, because in these spot usually at least one of guys bets. We almost have nuts here and we want to get in with someone's top pair.

With hero's stack size the question should be "why are you thinking of anything but shoving?" You just hit a flop hard and that's the 2nd nuts. If your worried about KQ the only other hand right now that's beating you let's look at the combo's. You block KQ hands with the Q in your hand so that's 12 combo's of KQ your villians could have. Then what's a button's range. In this case you said he's aggressive so he may have a wide range on that btn. all Ax suited hands maybe A8o+ K9o+ maybe some K5s+ 45s+, 64s+, J7s+. That's a lot of combo's that are no where near the 2nd nuts. There are a ton of combo's that the btn has that are flush draws. So go all in and hopefully the person with the XXs hands are priced out to hit that flush or don't want to gamble to hit a flush draw. Besides his flush draw maybe a weak one and is afraid that you might have a possible higher flush that could beat him anyway.