L
lonenlynobita
Enthusiast
Silver Level
There is a hand from the Anniversary Sunday Millions that caught my attention.
The coverage of the final table just started so no particular read. Nobody is exactly on "push or fold" mode.
Our hero is UTG + 1 with and had 60 Big Blinds. He raised 3 Big Blinds. Cut off with an effective stack of 32 Big Blinds called. We go into the pot.
Flop : Effective stack : 29 Big Blinds Pot : 8.5 Big Blinds
check check
Turn:
check check
River:
check check
---
Now, it's obvious that our Hero is way too passive. The question is how aggressive should we be? If it's up to me :
+ Flop
I feel like the Hero should have made a small continuation bet. Say 3 Big Blinds. I think the villain has a range advantage and he benefits from making some kind of a protection bet to get the villain to fold some of his wonky hand. I don't think the villain will raise us?
+ Turn
I think this card is a disaster for us. Our villain has A2, A7, and K7 in his range while we don't. However, I will argue that we should fire another bullet. Maybe 5 BB into a pot of 14.5 BB, because..
(i) If we check and they bet, we will be in a miserable spot. Even if we call and then the river is a blank, now what?
(ii) If we bet, we will be representing two over cards. Our villain will be calling only with Broadway, made straight, strong flush draw, and small pair. and If our villain has a small pair and the river is a T, Q, K--we can happily fire a third bullet and put them on a miserable spot. In addition to that, I don't think they will raise.
+ River
Assuming a bet and call, we have a pot of 24.5 BB and an effective stack of 21 BB. I really think the hero should shove all in here. I think it will be believable that we have suited club of AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ and there are a lot of hands in the villain's range they will be folding. Even if we check-check the turn (pot : 14.5 BB, effective stack 26 BB), I still believe we should over bet the pot.
My question are:
(1) Is the aggression that I suggested above is reasonable?
(2) What should have we done if the river has been a or a ? (Wrong suit)
(3) In the suggestion above, if the turn has been a TQK, I suggested that we should fire a third barrel to get small pair to fold. However, what is the appropriate bet size, assuming the card doesn't complete a flush draw, because I don't think we will shove all in with just a pair--but I don't think small bet will do the job.
The coverage of the final table just started so no particular read. Nobody is exactly on "push or fold" mode.
Our hero is UTG + 1 with and had 60 Big Blinds. He raised 3 Big Blinds. Cut off with an effective stack of 32 Big Blinds called. We go into the pot.
Flop : Effective stack : 29 Big Blinds Pot : 8.5 Big Blinds
check check
Turn:
check check
River:
check check
---
Now, it's obvious that our Hero is way too passive. The question is how aggressive should we be? If it's up to me :
+ Flop
I feel like the Hero should have made a small continuation bet. Say 3 Big Blinds. I think the villain has a range advantage and he benefits from making some kind of a protection bet to get the villain to fold some of his wonky hand. I don't think the villain will raise us?
+ Turn
I think this card is a disaster for us. Our villain has A2, A7, and K7 in his range while we don't. However, I will argue that we should fire another bullet. Maybe 5 BB into a pot of 14.5 BB, because..
(i) If we check and they bet, we will be in a miserable spot. Even if we call and then the river is a blank, now what?
(ii) If we bet, we will be representing two over cards. Our villain will be calling only with Broadway, made straight, strong flush draw, and small pair. and If our villain has a small pair and the river is a T, Q, K--we can happily fire a third bullet and put them on a miserable spot. In addition to that, I don't think they will raise.
+ River
Assuming a bet and call, we have a pot of 24.5 BB and an effective stack of 21 BB. I really think the hero should shove all in here. I think it will be believable that we have suited club of AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ and there are a lot of hands in the villain's range they will be folding. Even if we check-check the turn (pot : 14.5 BB, effective stack 26 BB), I still believe we should over bet the pot.
My question are:
(1) Is the aggression that I suggested above is reasonable?
(2) What should have we done if the river has been a or a ? (Wrong suit)
(3) In the suggestion above, if the turn has been a TQK, I suggested that we should fire a third barrel to get small pair to fold. However, what is the appropriate bet size, assuming the card doesn't complete a flush draw, because I don't think we will shove all in with just a pair--but I don't think small bet will do the job.
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