Do you make a value bet here?

A topic for discussion more than a question........

Do you risk a value bet here?
Easy fold if he shoves over you?



pokerstars Game #9168644430: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/03/30 - 18:27:36 (ET)
Table 'Palatia III' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: dakota-xx ($51.20 in chips)
Seat 2: bonjuno ($48.25 in chips)
Seat 3: kala5583 ($104.15 in chips)
Seat 4: Freakakanus ($54.75 in chips)
Seat 5: ali-baba25 ($47.50 in chips)
Seat 6: DeneYou ($5.90 in chips)
Seat 7: tenbob ($80.20 in chips)
Seat 8: mukitymuk ($49 in chips)
Seat 9: Wilson Welch ($50.30 in chips)
DeneYou: posts small blind $0.25
tenbob: posts big blind $0.50
Freakakanus: posts small & big blinds $0.75
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Freakakanus [9d 9s]
mukitymuk: folds
Wilson Welch: folds
dakota-xx: folds
bonjuno: folds
kala5583: folds
Freakakanus: raises $1.50 to $2
ali-baba25: calls $2
DeneYou: calls $1.75
tenbob: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c Tc 6c]
DeneYou: checks
Freakakanus: bets $4
ali-baba25: calls $4
DeneYou said, "ok lets do it"
DeneYou: calls $3.90 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [9c Tc 6c] [Qd]
Freakakanus: bets $13
ali-baba25: calls $13
*** RIVER *** [9c Tc 6c Qd] [Jd]
Freakakanus: checks
ali-baba25: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Freakakanus: shows [9d 9s] (three of a kind, Nines)
ali-baba25: mucks hand
Freakakanus collected $24.95 from side pot
DeneYou: mucks hand
DeneYou leaves the table
Freakakanus collected $17.55 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $44.65 Main pot $17.55. Side pot $24.95. | Rake $2.15
Board [9c Tc 6c Qd Jd]
Seat 1: dakota-xx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: bonjuno folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: kala5583 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Freakakanus showed [9d 9s] and won ($42.50) with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 5: ali-baba25 (button) mucked [Ad Qc]
Seat 6: DeneYou (small blind) mucked [5s Ac]
Seat 7: tenbob (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: mukitymuk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Wilson Welch folded before Flop (didn't bet)

A topic for discussion more than a question........

Do you risk a value bet on the river here?
Easy fold if he shoves over you?



PokerStars Game #9168644430: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/03/30 - 18:27:36 (ET)
Table 'Palatia III' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: dakota-xx ($51.20 in chips)
Seat 2: bonjuno ($48.25 in chips)
Seat 3: kala5583 ($104.15 in chips)
Seat 4: Freakakanus ($54.75 in chips)
Seat 5: ali-baba25 ($47.50 in chips)
Seat 6: DeneYou ($5.90 in chips)
Seat 7: tenbob ($80.20 in chips)
Seat 8: mukitymuk ($49 in chips)
Seat 9: Wilson Welch ($50.30 in chips)
DeneYou: posts small blind $0.25
tenbob: posts big blind $0.50
Freakakanus: posts small & big blinds $0.75
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Freakakanus [9d 9s]
mukitymuk: folds
Wilson Welch: folds
dakota-xx: folds
bonjuno: folds
kala5583: folds
Freakakanus: raises $1.50 to $2
ali-baba25: calls $2
DeneYou: calls $1.75
tenbob: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c Tc 6c]
DeneYou: checks
Freakakanus: bets $4
ali-baba25: calls $4
DeneYou said, "ok lets do it"
DeneYou: calls $3.90 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [9c Tc 6c] [Qd]
Freakakanus: bets $13
ali-baba25: calls $13
*** RIVER *** [9c Tc 6c Qd] [Jd]
Freakakanus: ???
ali-baba25: what's he got?
*** SHOW DOWN ***

Easy check down. With the flush and straight possibilities out there, you are either beat or they will think you made one of those and fold. If you bet, you risk losing more to a better hand or you give them a chance to bluff you. There's these 2 ways to lose, but only one way to win the last bet by hoping they call you with a lesser hand.

(I hope I was clear. I was struggling to find the right words.)

I would. My gut says he was chasing a flush and missed. If he reraises, I would fold. If he was bluffing, it was a nice bluff.

I would make a value bet,,, if he goes over the top of me then i fold,,
buck

t1riel said:

I would. My gut says he was chasing a flush and missed. If he reraises, I would fold. If he was bluffing, it was a nice bluff.

Click to expand...

buckster436 said:

I would make a value bet,,, if he goes over the top of me then i fold,,
buck

Click to expand...

even realizing that only a straight would call you or a flush?

I dont think you can possible do anything here apart from check, value betting is counter productive, a staight will prob call, a flush will raise now.

YOU can check-call his value bet, i certainly wouldnt fold to a small bet.

Gotta go with checkin' it down... value smalue......you only get called or reraised when you get beat by river card. Good posibility of being beat by some that has called on turn...why else did he call after all????

This is a tough spot and, imo, depends entirely on your read of villain and past hands you've seen him play. What types of hands has he called a preflop raise, when in position, in the past? Would he slow play a flush like this? Has he drawn out to flushes in the past with 3 to the flush on the board? Is he just waiting for you to check so he can bet into you and try to steal because he knows you're tight and capable of laying down a big hand?
I'd most likely end up checking because i'd rather call a bet than get raised. depending on how big the bet is, if we get bet into at all, would determine if i called or not. if you bet and get raised i'm almost certin it would be for the rest of your stack but you might be able to save a little if you can't get away from it and check/call. I don't think i'd be able to get way from it, but i'm a donk when i flop sets and get married to my hand.

Gotta agree on checking here. Would assume a st8 would check to possible flush & flush is just gonna come over the top of you anyway so check call or check fold depending on your reads & size of bet.

Agree with all those that say check. You can't beat any over the top play from an opponent. The only hands that you can really beat on that board that has called your bets so far: JQ (initial OESD now with 2 pr, busted flush draw, 66). However, sizeable side pot worth other player bluffing at since it's his only play if he does have a busted flush draw. Not sure he can really think he has much fold equity though since you'd still be getting about 2.5 : 1 to call that bet.

Would this be a good situation to bet for value simply because it's almost like a bluff blocking bet? He knows if you bet like $10 that you will likely call an over the top play... or would such a bet simply look weak?

I check, but not sure what the best play is.

In case anyone was wondering:

Freakakanus: checks
ali-baba25: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Freakakanus: shows [9d 9s] (three of a kind, Nines)
ali-baba25: mucks hand
Freakakanus collected $24.95 from side pot
DeneYou: mucks hand
DeneYou leaves the table
Freakakanus collected $17.55 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $44.65 Main pot $17.55. Side pot $24.95. | Rake $2.15
Board [9c Tc 6c Qd Jd]
Seat 1: dakota-xx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: bonjuno folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: kala5583 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Freakakanus showed [9d 9s] and won ($42.50) with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 5: ali-baba25 (button) mucked [Ad Qc]
Seat 6: DeneYou (small blind) mucked [5s Ac]
Seat 7: tenbob (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: mukitymuk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Wilson Welch folded before Flop (didn't bet)




Does he fold if I do bet?
Does he think his Q's might be good?


again, just a topic of discussion, I know what I did was right.

Seems to me that you checking was the only possible way he could think his Q's were good & possibly bet, his checking after you would seem to indicate that he would have folded had you bet so you made the right play as the only hands that would have called would have had you beat.

I wouldn't risk a value bet on the river as you would be throwing dead money into the pot, I believe ali-baba strung you along and has Ace high flush, so IMO a check/call is in order here and if I'm wrong I'll learn something new from this post.

and I'm not being results oriented here because I didn't proceed past the OP.

I think betting is the right play to do here. Check calling seems pointless to me. Unless youre planning to check fold.

I would have played the hand very similarly to the way you did, as posted. While not having specific reads, all things being equal I also would likely have called a push as well.

I would of also play this similar. Without reads I would fold to a push but with reads it would depend.

Looks like you did all you could to get Value from that hand, question though, why not value bet the river? Did the possable straight draw make you check? It certianly would have made me think in that position so i guess checking the river to see his actions would have been a dead giveaway if he was chasing a straight or bluffing the hole hand depending on his beat size if he dose bet.
That is my take anyway of it........

For meta-game purposes, it may be good to consider how you would play AK/KK in the same situation. Would you bet the river or check to try for a checkraise? If you only check scary rivers when you don't have it, someone might catch on.

Just a thought.

I would have played it similar to how you played it because he could have had a straight easily and so you played it well!

I think you should bet about $10.
That bet is not very promising, but I believe that has some +EV.
The point is that you have not much reason to afraid of a raise. He could raise with a flush on turn, if he has one. He certainly didn't call $13 on turn with a gutshot draw, so a jack is safe for you. If he has three queens, he could also raise earlier.

What he could have?
made flush - small probability
straight - very small probability
QQ - small probability
TT - moderate probability
two pair - nice probability
AcA* - normal probability
KcK* - moderate probability
AcQ* - moderate to normal probability
KcQ* - small probability
AcT* - moderate to normal probability

I tried to do the math without numbers . As you can see, there is a nice field of weaker hands he could call with (with a very small probability of raise, IMHO).

So:
a) this bet has some moderate value itself
b) it could serve as a blocking bet (in case opp has trips or very small flush)
c) it could keep your hand hidden (if opponent folds)

Put it all together - I think that $10 bet is a reasonable choice, at least slightly better than checking.

OMG, I wrote entire post believing that you had only one opponent. Now I have not enough energy to make corrections...