50nlFR: QQ vs nitty 3-bettor

Villain is a 13/6/3.6 tag after about 200 hands and I've been relatively tag.
MP1 was a fish I was trying to lure into the pot pf but obviously he folded.

Thoughts on pf?
Flop play?
How likely are we to be ahead at this point?

Villain snapcalled flop if that helps.

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $51.80
SB: $45.75
BB: $45.75
Hero (UTG): $51.85
UTG+1: $52.20
UTG+2: $57.95
MP1: $87.15
MP2: $52.55
CO: $43.80

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1.75, 2 folds, BTN raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $5.25, MP1 folds

Flop: ($16.50) K Q 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $11, BTN calls $11

Turn: ($38.50) A (2 Players)
Hero ...

PF play well there's an argument to 4bet him here as he could be squeezing a wide ish range here and we don't wanna let him catch an A or K. I dont mind calling to see a flop though. Flop looks good, he flats. Hmmm, I still think were ahead here unless he's slow playing a flush which would be horrible for us as we probably have to get it in on the turn. His range on the flop, well AQ+, fl draws still. I don't think we have to worry about JT or 44. KK and AA are well within his range but surely he plays it differently on the flop.

I dont want to check here as we give him a free card which could be disastrous for us. I think I get it in here on the turn.

Is checking the turn for pot control a consideration?

I agree with Jagsti on all points except pushing the turn is a must and I don't think a flush is in his range after the flop. The pot is $38 and you have only $33 effective stacks at this point so with either the virtual nuts or a cooler, either way you have to get it in on the turn. The Ah does not change my plan. If he has AA or KK, then that's rough. But PF betting suggests there is no way he has a flush at this point.

How often does he 3bet? Let's say he 3bets 4-5% of his played hands (acceptable I think since PFR is 6%)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,584 games 0.016 secs 99,000 games/sec
Board: Ks Qs 4s Ah
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.409% 28.41% 00.00% 450 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 71.591% 71.59% 00.00% 1134 0.00 { QcQd }

Now, I think it's reasonable he won't flat with 99-JJ but will probably fold those hands on the flop, so that gives us:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
792 games 0.005 secs 158,400 games/sec
Board: Ks Qs 4s Ah
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.424% 42.42% 00.00% 336 0.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 57.576% 57.58% 00.00% 456 0.00 { QcQd }


That seems reasonable to me, mathematically, but either way since you can't really narrow him to strictly KK or AA, I think you have to get it in on the turn. If a 4th spade hits the river, then it becomes a very difficult situation.

I guess you could include JsJ-9s9 in that range, but I haven't.

bet pot on flop, bet pot on turn, river decision becomes easy if its not a spade

so you're just assuming we're clearly ahead here?

I'm not sure I agree with 4-betting pf; I actually considered folding for a second. The guy's pfr is %6, and generally 3-bet %s are well under half that. Postflop I was just kind of lost as to how often he had AK/AA vs KK or if JsJx/AsQx were in his range, and what our equity would look like.

If he's on AK/KK+ then we're a slight favourite:

Board: Ks Qs 4s Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.364% 51.36% 00.00% 339 0.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 48.636% 48.64% 00.00% 321 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

And if we factor in jacks we're 60/40:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.390% 60.39% 00.00% 558 0.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 39.610% 39.61% 00.00% 366 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

If we're adding AQ I really don't think there's more than one combo of it (AsQh) since he probably doesn't call with that without the nut FD. Adding that hand changes very little to the equity...

EDIT: had to edit the ranges there since I was factoring dead cards instead of board cards by accident.

Looks like it's much clearer now.

side note:

It's much more clear we're ahead now, but his current range is a lot different than his calling range should we push the turn, ie a lot wider. I'd guess he's only calling with AK/KK+ and in that case we're only *just* a favourite...

wBut there may be some fl draws still in his range, so I would rather get my money in ahead and let him pay for it. Take it down now imo.

Cross post from other forum, T.

I really don't think it's reasonable to put him on a made flush.

Look at his stats. Like Chuck said, it's a tight range. With the QsKs out there, you could maybe put him on AsJs, but that seems unlikely to be in his range.

I think the turn is an easy shove given the remaining stack sizes and your equity vs his range. Put it this way, if you check and he bets, are you EVER folding? No, because you cannot know that he would have only KK or AA (6 combos total -- given the board) or AK (9 combos -- given the board). So, mathematically you must shove.

skoldpadda said:

Cross post from other forum, T.

I really don't think it's reasonable to put him on a made flush.

Look at his stats. Like Chuck said, it's a tight range. With the QsKs out there, you could maybe put him on AsJs, but that seems unlikely to be in his range.

I think the turn is an easy shove given the remaining stack sizes and your equity vs his range. Put it this way, if you check and he bets, are you EVER folding? No, because you cannot know that he would have only KK or AA (6 combos total -- given the board) or AK (9 combos -- given the board). So, mathematically you must shove.

Click to expand...

pretty much this

edit: never fold middle set on 3 card monotone against one opponent at these stakes afaik

yeah that's the thing, there just aren't many hands in his range that actually have a FD aside from AK and AsQh. AJs or worse pretty much doesn't squeeze pf.

I'm not saying it's a fold, but it's close, and I wasn't sure during the hand.

I pretty much shoved turn (bet $27, he shoved ~$5 more), I call, he shows AK no spades, I hold.

ChuckTs said:

yeah that's the thing, there just aren't many hands in his range that actually have a FD aside from AK and AsQh. AJs or worse pretty much doesn't squeeze pf.

I'm not saying it's a fold, but it's close, and I wasn't sure during the hand.

I pretty much shoved turn (bet $27, he shoved ~$5 more), I call, he shows AK no spades, I hold.

Click to expand...

Chuck u nit .