$5 PLO 6-max: Look for comments on aggressive button play
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.05 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 183.2 BB (VPIP: 39.31, PFR: 26.01, 3Bet Preflop: 9.64, Hands: 175)
BB: 75.4 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 5.36, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
UTG: 269 BB (VPIP: 85.45, PFR: 32.73, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 55)
MP: 79.8 BB (VPIP: 35.94, PFR: 18.11, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 128)
CO: 187.8 BB (VPIP: 49.15, PFR: 22.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 178)
Hero (BTN): 134.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero
UTG calls 1 BB, fold
, Hero raises to 4.4 BB
, SB raises to 15.2 BB
, UTG calls 14.2 BB, Hero
calls 10.8 BB
I raise the UTG player, trying to play this hand heads up. I get 3-bet from the SB and the UTG player calls. The SB has a 3-bet from the SB of 14% (22 hands) and it's 18% vs a steal (11 hands). So, this doesn't have to be AA although I am not too worried even if it is. I don't like to fold my button, and this is a hand where I feel like it will be pretty easy so know when I have out-flopped the other two. The UTG player is a tad on the loose side. LOL with his VPIP of 85.5%, so he could have anything.Flop: (46.6 BB, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 29.6 BB
, SB calls 29.6 BB, fold
Overall, not a horrible flop for me especially when checked to. I have a pair, an 8 card straight draw (non-nut), and a weak flush draw. I could certainly be behind, and I could be up against better hands and draws, but I am not going to give up. I bet an amount that's pretty standard for my c-bets on wet boards.Turn: (105.8 BB, 2 players)
When called, I don't expect to be up against the nuts very often here.
SB checks, Hero bets 89.6 BB and is all-in
Total blank on the turn. If the SB had the nuts already, he would have shoved the flop. He could have a better hand, he could have a better draw. I think it's hard for him to hold both. If he folds 46% of the time, I show an automatic profit. He almost certainly won't fold that often (although my stats say he folds to turn bets about 50% of the time). Still, if called, I expect to have some equity.
So, I think this shove is +EV when looking at the fold and pot equity. The way I figure it, if I have more than 31.4% pot equity, I show a profit even if he always calls. If I have less than that, the fold equity should make up for it. If he folds 25% of the time here, I only need 19% pot equity to break even. I have more than that against J-d-d-x, J-9-x-x (w/o flush draw), J-J-x-x, QQ+, etc. I am even close against T-8-x-x for the nuts (as long as he doesn't also have the flush draw).