$5 NLHE Full Ring: Zoom 5NL Set over set?

R

roddy1977

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 9/7/4

poker stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2919547
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $5.75
SB: $7.10
BB: $5.00
Hero (UTG): $18.66
UTG+1: $3.55
UTG+2: $12.08
MP1: $7.00
MP2: $5.42
CO: $16.92

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with 8c 8d
Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.15, 3 folds, BTN calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.62) 4h 8s Kc (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($0.62) 9d (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.39, UTG+2 raises to $1.21, BTN folds, BB folds, Hero calls $0.82

River: ($3.04) 7d (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $2.85, Hero ?

Villain has stats of VPIP 9, PFR 7, AF 4 hands 341.
I strongly suspect he has pocket 9s when he raises on the turn, not sure what else he'd raise with (maybe K9s or 44?). Am I burning money in the long run if I fold on the turn to his reraise? Should I call turn and river bets, or call turn and fold river? Would be interested to hear people's thoughts. Bearing in mind he is a tight reg, surely I should suspect set over set? Therefore I'm not thinking of reraising or shoving, especially considering how deep we both are.
 
Abramo Della Luce

Abramo Della Luce

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With a VPIP like that, I expect him to play with something like AT+, KJs+, 88+, so only with 99 he is ahead of you. His AF is 4, so quite aggressive post flop. Because of your check on the flop, he might have gotten the feeling that you were weak on the flop and that you might have a pair of 8 on the turn. With his range he would be ahead of you with that.
Taken all of this into consideration, it is much more likely that you have him beat and I would even raise the river.
Set over set is very rare and your equity is great towards his range.
Folding would indeed be burning money in the long run.
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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Just bet the flop. It's just a c-bet, you'll get plenty of calls.


As played, his range is a lot wider than just 99. With your flop check, he might think you have TT-QQ and raise you with AK, for instance.
 
Shaetano

Shaetano

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As played, i'd raise the river bet. Only 99/KK have you beat here and based on his play/stats, i don't think he has KK.

Probably more like a A9s or something like that (it's still in his range)...
 
M

MinhANguyen

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C-bet the flop... No slowplaying unless you are more experienced and have a very good reason to, e.g., opponent is an aggro donk who barrels off air when you check, or you have the deck completely crushed by flopping quads. Even when you flop quads, you should be c-betting certain % because checking as the PFR and then going crazy on later streets with big raises turns your hand face-up.

You block no Kx to anyone's calling range. NO reason to slowplay this hand. If you had KK instead, then it might be okay. Still c-betting KK 4-way though.

Against the nit, calling down the raise and river barrel is fine. We still beat bottom set if he calls with that pre, so we can't fold although that seems like a somewhat good option given his super nitty stats. And I disagree that a nit, and most people for that matter, would be checking TPTK here 4-way and then raising it ott all of a sudden.

Eh, and fold pre. You're in the worst position on the table, and unless you flop a set, you can't continue with your hand. Even then, people behind you will call with 99-QQ and can overset you.
 
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Jreece18

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Definitely bet flop. It's multiway too! It'd be pretty surprising if you got them all to fold.

Eh, and fold pre. You're in the worst position on the table, and unless you flop a set, you can't continue with your hand. Even then, people behind you will call with 99-QQ and can overset you.

You seriously fold 88 UTG at 5nl? Even with the stack sizes on this table? I guess I maybe understand if it's a super aggro table...
 
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MinhANguyen

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Wow, did not see the deep stacks. Opening here is fine then.

I'm pretty sure opening 88 UTG full-ring is -EV 100bb deep unless you have really weak players behind you. But I guess it could be okay at 5NL 100bb deep if the fish are that bad, and if nobody 3-bets anything but (QQ+, AKo).
 
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roddy1977

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Thanks for the input, guys. I totally see why people are saying I should have c-bet the flop, I think in future situations such as this I will!
When I was playing the hand I was conscious to watch out for set over set, especially with the deep stacks involved. Therefore I was almost certain I was in trouble when the villain raised the turn and bet the river. At 5NL Zoom, from my experience I'd say the majority of the time a tight reg bets the way he did he only has the nuts or very close to it. So I was pretty annoyed with myself for calling his river bet, as he turned over 99 as expected.
My main question was whether I should really have folded on the river - or even to his turn raise. Seems crazy with such a strong hand, but imo there were so few hands he would play in such a way that I had beat. Maybe K9 or 44, but 99 seemed more likely.
I guess it'd be easy to say in situations like this that my hand was too good to fold, and that set over set is rare etc, but I could have saved myself 58BBs (or more if I'd folded the turn) if I'd listened to my instincts. I guess it's all about working out when the % play, or '+ev play' is wrong, depending on the nuances of a particular situation!
 
f1reball

f1reball

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don't like to guess? open fold pre ^^
i'd call river, cause AK - 12 combos, 99/KK - 6 combos.
 
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