$5 NLHE 6-max: Bottom set facing heat OTT - ok to play for stacks?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/17/1.2

Villain looks like a regular. 79 hands, WTSD:6/9, 3Bet 7

I was thinking villain could play AQ OTT like this. So his range is something like {AA,QQ,99,77,AQ} and I'm here w 45% equity.

Did I overplay?


pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

Button ($5.77)
SB ($7.83)
BB ($5.80)
Hero (UTG) ($6.55)
MP ($6.62)
CO ($4.43)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 , 7
Hero raises to $0.15, MP calls $0.15, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 9 , 7 , A (2 players)
Hero bets $0.28, MP calls $0.28

Turn: ($0.93) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.78, MP raises to $1.56, Hero raises to $6.12 (All-In), MP calls $4.56

Good job putting a range in there. That's not something that I see a lot on here, but it's the best way to learn. (giving you a gold star).

Yeah, it's probably heavily 99, QQ or AQ. A9 is probably a stretch and he's probably just calling again with something like AsJs. I'd probably add in a percentage of AA, but doubtful someone is cold calling in MP against an UTG with those kinds of stats and hands like 97, KQs, etc.. and if they are, not even sure those are raising 100% OTT.

So any ways, in a nutshell, you should have over 50% equity against a reasonable range, so getting it in is fine. It's not a fist pump high give fine, but it's still a +EV shove.

You are only beat if he has 99,QQ,AA and set over set situations are very unlikely.
So I think you played it just fine

If he has higher set, then you cant do anything about it. Thats poker.
On the turn, you have also the option of just calling and see what happens next.

He doesn't have over set i'm 100% sure, his range is AK, AK or maybe 97 of hearts, KJ of hearts, i think pushing here is the right decision but he can easily fold hist draws.

el_magiciann said:

He doesn't have over set i'm 100% sure, his range is AK, AK or maybe 97 of hearts, KJ of hearts, i think pushing here is the right decision but he can easily fold hist draws.

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So he couldn't have 3bet pre- with AK? If it's reasonably possible he would have, it decreases the probability he has it. Similarly, 9h 7h seems fairly unlikely since he could well have folded pre-.

And if he's taking this line with AK, why is AQ not in his range?

I do not think his range here is QQ,KK,AA,AK. I am positive he will 3-bet with those specially from MP with 4 players left to act. AQ, AsJs,KsQs,QsJs, 99 is a decent range to put him on IMO because he is not the best TAG out there.

UTG 70.03% 70.03% 0.00%7d7c
MP 29.97% 29.97% 0.00%99, AQs, KsQs, AsJs, QsJs, JsTs, AQo
I do not know if i missed something but jamming is clear +EV.

el_magiciann said:

He doesn't have over set i'm 100% sure, his range is AK, AK or maybe 97 of hearts, KJ of hearts, i think pushing here is the right decision but he can easily fold hist draws.

Click to expand...

He can flat behind with 99, but I'd imagine he 3 bets AA and QQ PF..

So you can't be 100% sure he doesn't have a set of nines dude...

swingro said:

I do not think his range here is QQ,KK,AA,AK. I am positive he will 3-bet with those specially from MP with 4 players left to act. AQ, AsJs,KsQs,QsJs, 99 is a decent range to put him on IMO because he is not the best TAG out there.

I do not know if i missed something but jamming is clear +EV.

Click to expand...

And I concur, jamming was the play OP wp