€4 NLHE 6-max: Any possibility to win this hand?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/11/2

I was sure he will bet on the Flop, so I check-raised, waiting for another spade to NOT come, but the bad thing happened, what now????.
Is there any possibility to win this hand by playing it differently? What kind of PT stats I can use to make a decision if I can make a semi-bluff on the Turn successfully?
I know this hand was probably optimal against an unknown opponent. I am a new PokerTracker user, so, tell me more about analyzing opponents in this kind of situation by HUD stats. Thanks


iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Hand converted by PokerTracker 4



BTN: 140.75 BB (VPIP: 20.97, PFR: 11.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 63)

SB: 148.5 BB (VPIP: 24.09, PFR: 13.25, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 2,027)

BB: 13 BB (VPIP: 56.36, PFR: 5.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)

UTG: 125 BB (VPIP: 22.43, PFR: 17.18, 3Bet Preflop: 6.96, Hands: 490)

MP: 282.75 BB (VPIP: 80.84, PFR: 16.87, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 171)

Hero (CO): 197 BB



SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB



Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ K♣



fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB



Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 2♠ A♠ 7♣

Hero checks, BTN bets 9.75 BB, Hero raises to 31.5 BB, BTN calls 21.75 BB



Turn: (82.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠

Hero checks, BTN checks



River: (82.5 BB, 2 players) 6♠

Hero checks, BTN checks



Hero shows A♦ K♣ (One Pair, Aces)

(Pre 50%, Flop 50%, Turn 50%)

BTN shows K♦ A♣ (One Pair, Aces)

(Pre 50%, Flop 50%, Turn 50%)

BTN wins 37.75 BB

Hero wins 38 BB

You was out of position that's why I think that was good result for you in turn and river situation. For understanding opps lines you needed to see the stats like preflop 3bet, flop fold after check raise flop (if you have a big history with opp all stats can be for 3bet pots) WTSD, W$SD, AF+AFq on flop turn and river.
But I don't think that on micro limit tightly opp could have KQ/QJs on 3bet also that hands are more suited for your call preflop 3bet. Worse for you he had sets Ax with x of spread. )

Yes you could 4-bet preflop with AK cause it's such a strong hand. Then C-bet that flop not look for a check-raise

Especially when you open from late position, AK is almost a mandatory 4-bet. Just calling the 3-bet is super passive. You are going to be out of position, 2 out of 3 times you miss the flop, and often you are going to get bluffed out of the pot.

As played you are overly worried about spades. He 3-bet preflop, and what suited hands do people mostly 3-bet? Suited aces. But As is on the board, so he cant have AsXs, which drastically reduce the risk, he has a flush.

Sure he could have KsQs, KsJs or some suited connector, but the As on the board has taken out more than half the flush combos from a typical 3-betting range. So as played bet the turn and rock n roll from there.

Thank you for your comments. Glad to hear that I make some mistakes, I thought this was an optimal play, but there is always space to get better. I am still uncomfortable to use PT stats for my favor in spots like this.

fundiver199 said:

Especially when you open from late position, AK is almost a mandatory 4-bet.

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Okay. So, if I 4 bet, how should I play till the end in this same situation if he calls PF? How about if he goes All-IN after my 4bet? That's why I rarely 4bet with AK because AK is losing a hand to any kind of pairs PF, and if I miss the board, especially oop, that will give me a very hard time.

poker_bro said:

Okay. So, if I 4 bet, how should I play till the end in this same situation if he calls PF? How about if he goes All-IN after my 4bet? That's why I rarely 4bet with AK because AK is losing a hand to any kind of pairs PF, and if I miss the board, especially oop, that will give me a very hard time.

Click to expand...

If he jam on you, you fold, when you are this deep. With 100BB you call it off, when its CO vs. BTN. If its UTG vs. UTG+1, you fold. If he is a nit, you also fold. If he just call you, and you hit TPTK, you bet flop and jam turn. If he call, and you miss, you check and hope to get a free card. If you face a significant bet like half pot or more, you check-fold.

A lot of the value of 4-betting is, that he will sometimes fold, and therefore you dont have to win the pot very often, when he give you action. Its kind of a bluff, and AK is the ideal bluffing hand, because it block a lot of the hands, your opponent will continue with. So you get significantly more folds, than if you 4-bet a hand like QQ, and you get 5-bet less often.

Bet out turn for sure. You are so often ahead here, and you don't want him to draw for free if he has a hand with the Ks.

You can assume he also has AK- it seems the most likely based on his play (and on the fact that AA is so unlikely)... the only way to "win" this pot from his exact hand would be to get a fold... also unlikely- so few suited hands for either of you in this spot.