25NL 6max, shoving JJ preflop 200bb deep vs. maniac

Reads: Villain is a 47/37/3 maniac with 57% 3bet and 0% fold to 3bet. I've seen him shove preflop with QTo and 74s.

This is always a shove once he min 3bets me, right?

Well, it would have been a really profitable session if I hadn't been running 4 buy-ins below All-In EV.

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $27.55 (110.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $46.75 (187 bb)
BTN: $29.35 (117.4 bb)
SB: $48.45 (193.8 bb)
BB: $21.15 (84.6 bb)
UTG: $18.15 (72.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BTN folds, SB raises to $1.45, BB folds, Hero raises to $46.75 and is all-in, SB calls $45.30

Flop: ($93.75) 5 2 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: ($93.75) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($93.75) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $93.75 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed J J (two pairs, Jacks and Fives) and lost (-$46.75 net)
SB showed A 6 (two pairs, Aces and Fives) and won $90.75 ($44 net)

even against this retard i'd still 4bet smaller (i mean even as much as $8 or whatever) and call a shove. even though he'll shove with QTo and junk himself, he might not call off a stack with it

Yeah the issue here is not whether you should stack JJ against a guy like this, but how best to get your money in. I like combu's argument, but there's also the counter argument that he might stack something like A6s or QTo pf, but not after seeing a rag flop.

actually, i might sort of retract what i said. i guess it comes down to a kind of specific read. if you've never seen him do this size 3bet before and you assumed that it meant he likes his hand much more than normal (which very well might have been the case) then you can definitely make a case for just shoving.

if he's done this size 3bet before, or even as his standard, then i'd probably do what i suggested and 3bet some smaller but still overly large amount, hoping it induces him to shove his dumb gappers or suited stuff

I want to know his player ID so I can look him up.

But yeah, if you know he'll call in these situations where you're better than 2:1, it's an easy shove. But like ChuckTs said, it's a matter of doing what you can to get the most money into the pot pre flop. I think there's less value in shoving, as he's less likely to call. But popping it back up might tempt him into stacking more often than he'll call a shove.

SavagePenguin said:

I want to know his player ID so I can look him up.

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I'll send you a PM.

I was 100% sure villain would call the shove here. Any hand he somewhat liked he was ready to play for stacks.

You know, there's one big flaw with my play above: i suck at all-in pots before the river has been dealt. Today's graph below illustrates the problem, but it also works over a longer time period. I've played 30k hands since July 1st, mostly at 25NL and some 50NL, and my actual winnings are $550 lower than my all-in EV. That's equivallent to 3.7 ptbb/100 at 25NL.

BelgoSuisse said:

I was 100% sure villain would call the shove here. Any hand he somewhat liked he was ready to play for stacks.

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well then you answered your own question, didn't you? i assumed that wasn't the case since you posted the hand at all

combuboom said:

well then you answered your own question, didn't you? i assumed that wasn't the case since you posted the hand at all

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Yeah exactly, you should know that Belgo. The only reason it's generally a bad idea to stack so deep is because people tend to tighten up their pushing/calling ranges to the point where stacking JJ 200 deep against a competent player is obviously going to be -EV. If their ranges don't change at all 100 deep vs 200+ deep, then neither should yours.