Originally Posted by masadad
partypoker - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 (http://www.pokertracker.com)
SB: 55.96 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 105.84 BB (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
UTG: 165.64 BB (VPIP: 13.92, PFR: 8.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.84, Hands: 311)
UTG+1: 113.08 BB (VPIP: 9.84, PFR: 8.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 63)
Hero (MP): 96.44 BB
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 98)
CO: 109.48 BB (VPIP: 22.98, PFR: 15.36, 3Bet Preflop: 3.29, Hands: 928)
BTN: 157.52 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 8.62, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A<font color='black'>♣</font> J<font color='black'>♠</font>
fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold
Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) A<font color='red'>♦</font> 4<font color='black'>♣</font> 7<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB checks, Hero bets 7.12 BB, CO raises to 15.44 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.32 BB
Turn: (40.88 BB, 2 players) J<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero checks, CO bets 19.4 BB, Hero calls 19.4 BB
River: (79.68 BB, 2 players) 9<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero checks, CO bets 54 BB
Raise is fine. C-bet on the flop is fine.
The min raise is a little odd. It's a pretty disconnected board, so the only draw doing this is 56s. There's only 4 of those. The value hands are A7s, A4s, 77, and 44. I think we discount AA because there's only 1 combo and no 3-bet pre flop. I think we also discount AK, AQ - that's a bit ambitious to min raise, and again no 3-bet pre flop. So that's like 6 sets, 1 combo A7 hearts and 1 combo of A4 hearts... because all other suited 2pair Aces are blocked.
I'm not normally one for folding to a min raise... but in this case, we are usually behind, have only 3 cards to improve on, and we might still be behind pretty often even when we improve.
So in order to call this min raise we need to think the CO will turn 88, 99, TT, 66, 55, 33, 22 or total air into a bluff.... and do it by min raising. Seems unlikely. Even if we put all combos of A7 in his range, we still only improve on those three jacks.
To me, this makes the best play to fold the flop.
As played, when we see the Jack on the turn we have to ask if all A7 combos are in his range or not, and does he double barrel 56s? Judging by stats... I doubt all A7 combos are in his range. Therefore the jack doesn't really change much. We now beat 2 combos and are ahead of 56s - so that puts us pretty even against his range if we think he fires 56s again. Which again, is an if.
So if we call here, we have give him all combos of A7, and assume he fires a second bullet with 56s.
The 9 doesn't change anything. So if we assume the ranges that get us here, unless villain over bets the pot, we should call. But I think the best play is to fold the flop, by a slight margin because the bet is small. If not, certainly fold the turn.