This is a discussion on $25 NLHE 6-max: Overpair 99 facing triple barrel within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; 888 Poker - $0.30 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 106.47 BB
BB: 344 BB
He already checkraised me once or twice (one hand i wasn't sure if he was it) on a pretty dry board. However I didn't see his hand. I didn't have stats, but i had the feeling, that he plays somewhat between tag and lag.
Do you call the flop raise/ turn bet/ river shove? Thank you!
7th July 2016, 8:57 AM
Flop call isn't that good. Just because he CR once on a dry board doesn't mean he was light, and it doesn't mean he CR dry boards light either. And him CRing a dry board again doesn't skew his range more towards bluffs.
I don't really like the flop call because we block many of the straight draws that might make a move on this board. Also, people don't play back at you as much as you think they do, unless they are maniacs/really laggy. This is also a good board for him to CR with his value hands because from our point of view, there aren't many value hands he can actually have. We'd also expect him to slowplay them at a certain frequency. Our range is also pretty strong c-betting into two others on a connected board. Imo calling and then raising the turn/river looks way too nutted, so I'd raise all my value hands here.
I would probably fold turn. But since you got to the river, I think calling or folding are both fine given the price. Some deepstackers are capable of air balling and running some crazy bluffs (speaking from experience lol). Missed hearts and some missed straight draws or just some random bluffs. He's really only repping 66/88/A8s/some 98s.
9th July 2016, 10:23 AM
Thank you for your analysis! I wasn't sure if my play might be -ev in the long run. But it probably is. However I was lucky this time and catched a bluff.