$2000 NLHE 6-max: Calling range against large river shove

hackmeplz · May 1, 2020

Fold to button who makes it 25, SB folds I call BB
flop=Qh6c2c, I ch button bets 20 into 55 I call
turn=Qh6c2c(9h), I ch button bets 140 into 95 I call
river=Qh6c2c9h2h, I ch button bets 950 into 375 I call/fold what ranges?

gustav197poker · May 1, 2020

Let's go sailing on a rudderless boat. This is what I think may be here:

RV: Kh-K; Ah-Kh; A-A; 9-9

RH call: Jh-2; 2-6; 8h-8; 6-6

Fold: J-J; 7-7; Q-6; 6-9

Greetings.

c0rnBr34d · May 1, 2020

I've never played $10/$20 live or online so ignore if you want. This post does not compute. It's $10/$20 NLHE and Button opens for $25? Or are the blinds 5/10 some how? I'm lost. If this is 25 BB instead of $25 what is our flatting range in the BB? QQ exactly? I'm guessing it's dollars though because on the river there's a 950 bet and I've never seen two 1,100 BB deep stacks go at it a the same table online. Our range should be very narrow to flat turn. I actually can't think of many hands that want to flat turn and fold river. I think we should be raising most of our continuing range OTT with two flush draws on board. No reads at all on V? 1.5x overbet turn and 2.5x overbet OTR. I'm calling with flushes, boats, and quads. I would have raised KK+, AcQc, Ah6h, 2 pair, sets type hands on the turn (or before) and I'm folding AQo for this price as played unless we have reads that V is super aggro. Is it safe to assume we cover V and his 950 shove is the effective stack? All we can beat is missed clubs but I don't think he bets less than half pot with a naked flush draw on the flop. I guess it could be a really spazzy JT as well that c bet small then went nuts when he turned the straight draw but I think we run into AQ+, KK+, flushes, and boats+ here a lot too so I'm not calling off stacks hoping to run into the bottom of his range with AQ so we can chop or get lucky on a bluff catch. If V is a maniac I'll add KQ+. It's kind of hard to read all of this without knowing what the blinds are and how the game plays.

hackmeplz · May 1, 2020

Sorry this was 5/10, I think I messed up the stakes.

Alucard · May 1, 2020

hackmeplz said:
Sorry this was 5/10, I think I messed up the stakes.

no reads on V?
Without reads I'm prolly folding a shit ton 100BB eff

Casey55 · May 1, 2020

MDF is 71% of your range, are we assuming you are check-raising or betting the strong parts of your range on flop and turn or slow-playing sets and 2-pairs? on the river here 71% is quite a bit I think you would have to call with all your flushes and top pairs that made it to the river, maybe some 9's aswell. This is assuming you are 3-betting hands like 88 and better,ATs and better, KQo and AQo and better pre-flop, those shouldn't really be in your pre-flop calling range.

hackmeplz · May 1, 2020

Alucard said:
no reads on V?
Without reads I'm prolly folding a shit ton 100BB eff

Good reg, he's overbet before it seems to be part of his strategy as a standard size in this spot but I haven't played enough with him to get any more detailed reads, and it's global so no stats or anything.

hackmeplz · May 1, 2020

Casey55 said:
MDF is 71% of your range, are we assuming you are check-raising or betting the strong parts of your range on flop and turn or slow-playing sets and 2-pairs? on the river here 71% is quite a bit I think you would have to call with all your flushes and top pairs that made it to the river, maybe some 9's aswell. This is assuming you are 3-betting hands like 88 and better,ATs and better, KQo and AQo and better pre-flop, those shouldn't really be in your pre-flop calling range.

This all seems to be pretty on the money, especially with the flop sizing I'm probably raising all my 2p/sets, so I'm pretty much capped to flushes here.

gustav197poker · May 1, 2020

MDF: 71% means that we have to defend this river 7 out of 10 times we reach this instance. In this case the existing possibilities for villain are: Boat, flush, trips, double pairs and of course pure bluff = 100%
If we make hero calls with double pairs, trips, flushes and lows scales of boats, we are exceeding this number by 10% (4/5 = 80%). This means that we must look for the highest scale of each hand that we call, to reduce this margin and isolate ourselves with less amount of strong combinations of the V range.
But fundamentally we must adjust the quality of our most vulnerable bluff catchers, such as double pairs.
For example: in this hand it is not desirable on the river to block QX combos of rank V with double pairs for hero. Because in this way we are reducing the line of 2 pairs in the V range. But if we call on the river with 2 pairs that include a Q, we should do it with the best possible pairs, which in this case is Q-9. Because it is better to block 5 Q-9 combos and leave 6 Q-6 combos in the V range than the other way around. (If we call with Q-6 we block 5 Q-6 combos and leave 6 Q-9 combos in the V range, but this It is not the most desirable since we lose against them). And so on with each hand we call on the river, so that our defense is as efficient as possible, IMO.

Casey55 · May 1, 2020

hackmeplz said:
This all seems to be pretty on the money, especially with the flop sizing I'm probably raising all my 2p/sets, so I'm pretty much capped to flushes here.

u

I don’t think flushes will make up 70% of your range, assuming you ended up at the river by defending MDF on the flop and turn you should have some Top pairs that need to defend as well possibly some 9’s. Wether you will win or not Is a different story , I was just trying to answer the MDF question

Casey55 · May 1, 2020

gustav197poker said:
MDF: 71% means that we have to defend this river 7 out of 10 times we reach this instance. In this case the existing possibilities for villain are: Boat, flush, trips, double pairs and of course pure bluff = 100%
If we make hero calls with double pairs, trips, flushes and lows scales of boats, we are exceeding this number by 10% (4/5 = 80%). This means that we must look for the highest scale of each hand that we call, to reduce this margin and isolate ourselves with less amount of strong combinations of the V range.
But fundamentally we must adjust the quality of our most vulnerable bluff catchers, such as double pairs.
For example: in this hand it is not desirable on the river to block QX combos of rank V with double pairs for hero. Because in this way we are reducing the line of 2 pairs in the V range. But if we call on the river with 2 pairs that include a Q, we should do it with the best possible pairs, which in this case is Q-9. Because it is better to block 5 Q-9 combos and leave 6 Q-6 combos in the V range than the other way around. (If we call with Q-6 we block 5 Q-6 combos and leave 6 Q-9 combos in the V range, but this It is not the most desirable since we lose against them). And so on with each hand we call on the river, so that our defense is as efficient as possible, IMO.

Hero shouldn’t really have any boats by the river, Hero should be raising or leading them at some point before the river, same with two pairs etc. if we go by the call pre-flop, call turn, check river our range should not be very strong besides river-ing some flushes then we have top pairs and some 9’s.

gustav197poker · May 2, 2020

Casey55 said:
Hero shouldn’t really have any boats by the river, Hero should be raising or leading them at some point before the river, same with two pairs etc. if we go by the call pre-flop, call turn, check river our range should not be very strong besides river-ing some flushes then we have top pairs and some 9’s.

We shouldn't have x / r for minimum boats on the river. Unless we have the nuts or we think we are facing a big open range. For example 2-6, he loses with 6-6 9-9 and Q-Q on the river, and we don't need to raises postflop in this dangerous texture, since we can't achieve fold equity with several draws on board and overflowed with overbets. Any post flop raise fails to negate equity as there are multiple draws on board. NL1000 or NL2000 villains will have no trouble continuing their gutshot or flush draw.

hackmeplz · May 2, 2020

Been some good discussion here, one other question I've been thinking about, does it make sense to start flatting some flopped 2p/sets to protect my range here? Obviously we don't want to do it all the time or anything because we want to build a pot when we have nutted hands for the times he doesn't 1.5x/3x pot bet turn/river, but it definitely sucks being capped here and we'll be capped on most runouts when we call if we raise all 2p/sets on this flop. And if we are going to flat a few combos which ones should we add first?

gustav197poker · May 2, 2020

hackmeplz said:
Been some good discussion here, one other question I've been thinking about, does it make sense to start flatting some flopped 2p/sets to protect my range here? Obviously we don't want to do it all the time or anything because we want to build a pot when we have nutted hands for the times he doesn't 1.5x/3x pot bet turn/river, but it definitely sucks being capped here and we'll be capped on most runouts when we call if we raise all 2p/sets on this flop. And if we are going to flat a few combos which ones should we add first?

In reality, that decision is at the sole discretion of each player. I personally would start with Q2 and Q6 for the reasons explained above.

c0rnBr34d · May 2, 2020

This is not at all my understanding of MDF. I double checked and upswing has a sample calculation. In there example they use pot size on the river BEFORE the bet and the river bet itself. That would yield:

pot size / (pot size + bet size)

375 / (375+950) = 28.3% of our range. This is WAAAAAYYYY different than defending 70%+ of our range. It doesn't make logical sense why we would want to call off such a huge over bet with so much of our range. I think calling here with 9x is crazy talk. I'm not sure how much 9x we should have left after defending only 40% of our range on the turn anyways. Whatever is left that hasn't improved I can't see how it's still in the top 28% of our river range.

c0rnBr34d · May 2, 2020

hackmeplz said:
Been some good discussion here, one other question I've been thinking about, does it make sense to start flatting some flopped 2p/sets to protect my range here? Obviously we don't want to do it all the time or anything because we want to build a pot when we have nutted hands for the times he doesn't 1.5x/3x pot bet turn/river, but it definitely sucks being capped here and we'll be capped on most runouts when we call if we raise all 2p/sets on this flop. And if we are going to flat a few combos which ones should we add first?

I think flatting flop and raising turn with two pair is mostly fine. Obviously raising flop is also fine. I would not get fancy with a set though as they are just too valuable and we want to make sure we try to set up scenarios where we can play for stacks without resorting to 3x overbet jams. Obviously we can deviate from these lines if we have reads that V will be over aggressive and has too many bluffs but you have not given that read. You've said you haven't seen the overbet often enough to really know if it's exploitable so it's not time to get fancy in my opinion against a good reg.

gustav197poker · May 2, 2020

c0rnBr34d said:
I think flatting flop and raising turn with two pair is mostly fine. Obviously raising flop is also fine. I would not get fancy with a set though as they are just too valuable and we want to make sure we try to set up scenarios where we can play for stacks without resorting to 3x overbet jams. Obviously we can deviate from these lines if we have reads that V will be over aggressive and has too many bluffs but you have not given that read. You've said you haven't seen the overbet often enough to really know if it's exploitable so it's not time to get fancy in my opinion against a good reg.

You're right, the MDF on the river is 28%. Do not check the calculation. In this case we should not call with double pairs on the river. However if the villain is a decent regular, the polarized range v contains a reasonable bluffs ratio, which compensates for our inverse probabilities. So if we get to the river with double pairs, the only alternative we have to defend is a Q-9. All other options should be discarded. As for the line x / r on the flop or x / r on the turn, I definitely prefer x / r on the turn. However I think it would not. It is not that I want to be elegant, I simply do not want to put more money to a totally open board. We really are limited in range. Maybe I could consider raising the turn more if I had 2 different blockers, but without them I would just call.
40% of the range on the turn is a frequency of 1 call for every 2.5 times. This shows us that the EV does not change much in this situation. In fact the EV is slightly favorable on the turn with the hero's x / r line, compared to x / c.

c0rnBr34d · May 2, 2020

Forgot to add that I think MDF is for balanced / GTO-ish Vs. We have established V as a good reg but OP has admitted that he doesn't have reads on the overbet lines so we don't know if they are balanced or value heavy. Without these reads I think it's fine to defend less than 28% on the river. But even if we follow MDF and assume he's balanced let's just walk through a quick combo count.

Let's say we defend the BB with a tad over 20% of starting hands which is 270 combos (seems plenty generous vs a good reg OOP and I wouldn't personally flat this wide but for sake of argument and nice round numbers lets go with 20%). This will include all broadway cards A4s+, A9o+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s+, 66+. After the small flop c-bet we're continuing with 73% of of those combos and have 198 left on the turn. Then continuing with 40% we have 79 combos left on the river and we only need to defend 28% of them which is 22 combos. Boats account for 9 of those combos (ignoring 22, Q2, 62, 92 since we only called top 20% but if we called wider we'd have 3 extra combos of 22 and A2s for boats). The A and K of hearts are unblocked so we could find 13 flush combos to fill out the rest (and we would only need 10 flush combos if we called all pocket pairs and suited aces pre). The way the hand played we shouldn't have much of the strongest combos but that doesn't mean we can ignore them and call anyways because "MDF". After flushes there are still trips and over pairs that we shouldn't have as played but could have and defend before we get to Qx. If we have AhQx or KhQx and unblock clubs it may be tempting but I don't think we need to push the limits here without better reads. Calling with 9x is beyond my comprehension as even some of his bluffs like TT will have us beat.

gustav197poker · May 2, 2020

c0rnBr34d said:
Forgot to add that I think MDF is for balanced / GTO-ish Vs. We have established V as a good reg but OP has admitted that he doesn't have reads on the overbet lines so we don't know if they are balanced or value heavy. Without these reads I think it's fine to defend less than 28% on the river. But even if we follow MDF and assume he's balanced let's just walk through a quick combo count.

Let's say we defend the BB with a tad over 20% of starting hands which is 270 combos (seems plenty generous vs a good reg OOP and I wouldn't personally flat this wide but for sake of argument and nice round numbers lets go with 20%). This will include all broadway cards A4s+, A9o+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s+, 66+. After the small flop c-bet we're continuing with 73% of of those combos and have 198 left on the turn. Then continuing with 40% we have 79 combos left on the river and we only need to defend 28% of them which is 22 combos. Boats account for 9 of those combos (ignoring 22, Q2, 62, 92 since we only called top 20% but if we called wider we'd have 3 extra combos of 22 and A2s for boats). The A and K of hearts are unblocked so we could find 13 flush combos to fill out the rest (and we would only need 10 flush combos if we called all pocket pairs and suited aces pre). The way the hand played we shouldn't have much of the strongest combos but that doesn't mean we can ignore them and call anyways because "MDF". After flushes there are still trips and over pairs that we shouldn't have as played but could have and defend before we get to Qx. If we have AhQx or KhQx and unblock clubs it may be tempting but I don't think we need to push the limits here without better reads. Calling with 9x is beyond my comprehension as even some of his bluffs like TT will have us beat.

9x is waste as 8-8. I think these hands are the last that hero can use to face the villain's rank of bluff. And the reason is that they allow the unlocking of all the possible bluffs in this texture. Obviously they are the most risky combinations. The combination 7-7 is better suited to NL5000.

gustav197poker · May 3, 2020

In my opinion the worst hands for hero on the river are JJ and TT. In the case of JJ because it blocks AJ; KJ; QJ; JT; J9; J8; J7; J6s; J5s; J4s; J3s; J2s. And then TT because it blocks AT; KT; QT; JT; T9; T8s; T7s; T6s; T5s; T4s; T3s.
From the villain side, I think these are the riskiest bluffs he can have: T-5; 5-8; 7-T; K-8; J-7; A-8; A-5; J-8; 7-5; 7-3; 7-8; 4-8.
As we can see, if hero has a marginal hand in the river like 9-8 or 8-8, he is only blocking the least likely bluffs in rank V. The main bluffs and semibluffs will be fully unlocked when hero calls in the river with 9-8 or 8-8.

Aballinamion · May 3, 2020

hackmeplz said:
Fold to button who makes it 25, SB folds I call BB
flop=Qh6c2c, I ch button bets 20 into 55 I call
turn=Qh6c2c(9h), I ch button bets 140 into 95 I call
river=Qh6c2c9h2h, I ch button bets 950 into 375 I call/fold what ranges?

Hello hackmeplz, thank you for sharing. Well, I never played such higher limits and I really admire those who risk their necks at the tables.
I play at maximum 200 NLHE, so I will not risk to give you poor advice, you need some High Stakes professional/regular in order to anaylise this.

Having said that your description is very poor, it doesn't have a lot of paramount details that we could use in order to provide you the best possible analysis.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

gustav197poker · May 3, 2020

Considerable Bluffs (sample):
2 A-Ks + 2 A-Qs + 2 AJs + 6 ATo + 6 K-To + 2 Q-Js + 4 Q-To + 6 Q-9o + 6 Q-8o + 2 KQs + 6 KJo + flush combos failed draws 1 combo Ac-Kc + 1 Ac-Qc + 1 Ac-Jc + 1 Ac-Tc + 1 Ac-9c + 1 Ac-8c + 1 Ac-7c + 1 Ac-5c + 1 Ac-4c + 1 Ac -3c + 1 Kc-Qc + 1 Kc-Jc + 1 Kc-Tc + 1 Kc-9c + 1 Kc-8c + 1 Kc-7c + 1 Kc-5c + 1 Kc-4c + 1 Kc-3c + 1 Qc -Jc + 1 Qc-Tc + 1 Qc-9c + 1 Qc-8c + 1 Qc-7c + 1 Qc-5c + 1 Qc-4c + 1 Qc-3c + 1 Jc-Tc + 1 Jc-9c + 1 Jc- 8c + 1 Jc-7c + main combos with blockers in the river: 2 Kh-Q + 2 Kh-J + 2 Kh-T + 2 Kh-9 + 2 Kh-8 + 2 Kh-7 + 2 Kh-6 + 2 Kh-5 + 2 Ah-K + 2 Ah-Q + 2 Ah-J + 2 Ah-T + 2 Ah-9 + 2 Ah-8 + 2 Ah-7 + 2 Ah-6 + 2 Ah-5 + 2 Ah-4 + 2 Jh-K + 2 Jh-Q + 2 Jh-T + 2 Jh-7
Total bluff combos: 119
Incidence with respect to J-J: It interferes in 24.37% of the total of these combos.
Incidence of 9-8 and 8-8: together: both hands interfere together with 23.53% of the total of these combos.
Incidence of TT: Interferes in 21.85% of the total of these combos.
According to this sample JJ is the worst hand for hero on the river, then he follows 9x and 8-8 (both hands considered together) and finally TT interferes to a lesser extent.

$2000 NLHE 6-max: Calling range against large river shove

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